The Great Pretender
Online casino legalization will be a hot topic in 2024, especially in Maryland. But, is any state serious about iGaming, or are they just putting on a happy face?
The Bulletin Board
NEWS: We’re serious this time: There is a legitimate push to legalize online gambling in Maryland in 2024.
NEWS: West Flagler has begun a two-front sports betting war in Florida, filing a separate state constitutional challenge as it appeals to the US Supreme Court.
NEWS: Rivalry drops the new casino game Cash & Dash, which tries to create a casino experience for Millennials and Gen Z.
VIEWS: Did someone finally get betting integration right?
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Chess vs. Poker, the battle of the ages.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Stay calm. Nothing to see here. No, really, relax. This is not a sarcastic meme.
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We’re #1: Is Maryland the Top iGaming Candidate?
Maryland is one of the top candidates to legalize online casinos in 2024.
In August, I had Maryland at #5. This month, it has moved to the #1 spot. but in the current US climate, this is akin to being the valedictorian of summer school.
What is pushing Maryland to the top of the charts? Two things: its approach (a ballot referendum) and the ongoing push from key individuals in the state.
As Bennett Conlin wrote for US Bets, “Several prominent Maryland legislators and iGaming experts convened at Morgan State University’s Center for Data Analytics and Sports Gaming Research last week for a panel discussion about the future of gambling in Maryland.”
the bulk of the discussion looked backward at the state’s foray into sports betting, but it concluded with an online casino discussion. Another bill is expected in 2024, and this time, it will have the support of an online gambling feasibility study that is due on November 15 - I’ve yet to see a study that paints online gambling in a negative light.
Discussions like these are extremely important, as educating lawmakers (debunking myths and quelling fears of gambling) is one of the most difficult hurdles in legalization efforts. Public discussions do a lot of the heavy lifting on that front.
Of course, even if Maryland legalizes online gambling in 2024, based on the lethargic rollout of sports betting, the first online casino or poker sites are unlikely to go live before 2026.
Here is my updated list of 2024 online casino candidates:
Maryland
New Hampshire
Indiana
Iowa
North Carolina
New York
Illinois
Maine
Massachusetts
Colorado
Florida Sports Betting Plot Thickens
Things just got a whole lot messier in Florida.
While West Flagler takes its appeal to the Supreme Court of the United States, it has embarked on a secondary campaign, filing a petition with the Florida Supreme Court that the compact between the state and the Seminole Tribe violates the Florida Constitution.
Attorney Daniel Wallach succinctly summarized the situation, saying, “West Flagler contends that the online sports betting provisions of the Seminole Tribe's 2021 compact with the State of Florida impermissibly expand casino gambling in violation of Article X, Section 30 of the Florida Constitution.”
The crux of the argument revolves around Amendment 3, a measure passed in 2018, which requires all casino gambling expansions to go before Florida voters (with a 60% majority required) and not through the legislature to pass.
"The Governor exceeded his authority by entering into a compact with the Seminole Tribe granting the Tribe the exclusive right to offer off-reservation online and in-person sports betting throughout the entire state."
Wallach also has a terrific thread on the highlights from the filing and another thread on some of the key arguments for and against and why they are potentially problematic.
There is a lot going on with this case - and the federal case. It’s the proverbial can of worms that would take thousands of words to cover, and Substack has an email length limit. The important takeaway, for now, is that any hopes for the relaunch of Florida sports betting are being pushed further and further into the future.
Not Your Grandfather’s Casino Game
A new product from Rivalry is looking to shake up the online gambling market. Aimed at Millenials and Gen Z, “Cash & Dash is a first-of-its-kind title that merges online casino betting with modern video game studio development and gameplay,” Andre Nogueria, Senior Product Manager, Games, Rivalry said in a release. “We’ve incorporated tried-and-true mechanics from the games industry to add a layer of entertainment value to the casino experience that resonates with our Millennial and Gen Z audience.”
this isn’t the first time companies have tried to appeal to the younger demo (remember skill-based slot machines and tabletop games from GameCo and Gamblit?), but Rivalry is focusing its attention online, where that demo spends most of its time anyway.
“Online betting is still far behind other forms of entertainment from a product standpoint,” said Steven Salz, Co-Founder and CEO, Rivalry. “We see a growing opportunity to create betting products that are strikingly fun, interactive, and engaging, and our original games are a big step in that direction. Cash & Dash, Rushlane, and other original games we currently have in development, continue to build on a unique betting experience exclusive to Rivalry that differentiates our product at a time where most sportsbooks look and feel the same.”
I’m bullish on these products long-term, as they seamlessly blend betting and entertainment (the stated goal of gambling firms), but the question is, what type of inroads can they make in the short term?
Yes, the games are fun for a gambling product. But they are not as fun as video games. And they have a gambling component, but it’s not exactly the type of gambling most current gamblers are interested in.
Genius Sports Announces BetVision
Reliable betting integration is a Holy Grail of sorts in the sports betting universe. It’s often discussed as an opportunity, from Fubo to ESPN, but rarely seen and never developed to the point where it’s game-changing.
Enter Genius Sports and its newly announced BetVision, which the company believes will fill this sizable void. Genius Sports is billing it as “the world’s first immersive sports wagering experience that brings live streams together with integrated bet slips, statistical insights, and real-time augmentations within a single interactive player.”
Genius has exclusive rights to “NFL Official League Data and live game video streams to sportsbooks” and plans to offer BetVision through BetRivers, Fanatics, and Caesars, with a multi-stage rollout that will see more and more features added over time.
In its press release, Genius Sports explained what bettors (you must place a wager to have access to BetVision) can expect:
“For the first time ever, BetVision will allow sportsbook customers to place wagers from within the live video player in the sportsbook app. These low latency live game video streams feature integrated betting odds and betslips, and will be enhanced by in-game betting alerts and on-screen offers during breaks in game action to increase relevance, drive engagement and retain customers.”
The question (there’s always a question) is, can it deliver? And has it solved the so-far-unsolvable latency problem?
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Chess Twitter is having a debate about poker, and Poker Twitter has chimed in. You may recognize one of the main protagonists from this doozy of a story.
The million-dollar question was asked by Jamie Staples: “Literally no one even engages in the main topic of his critique. IE is poker risky”
Stray Thoughts
I’ve learned a few things after many years of covering the industry. One of those things is to stay level-headed when you encounter one-off, out-of-place revenue data. Like an outlier political poll, there is some variance built into the system.
A recent example is DraftKings’ amazing August numbers in New Jersey, where it doubled its previous 12-month high.
But as Chris Krafcik from Eilers & Krejcik noted, don’t start updating your models just yet, “This spike could be VIPs / whales, futures, above-average hold, promo spending increases, or a combination of those + other variables.” Nor is it occurring in other markets.
Related, JP Morgan raised its target price for DraftKings from $26 to $37 for reasons. Many of which Chris Grove commented on in an excellent tweet thread.
