A Heavy Lift
Sports betting legalization will get plenty of airtime in state legislatures next year, but 2024 could be the first year sports betting legalization efforts get blanked.
The Bulletin Board
NEWS: Three states stand out as the best sports betting candidates in 2024. Which is like being the valedictorian of summer school.
BEYOND the HEADLINE: The difficulty of passing legislation in an election year.
NEWS: Tribes and cardrooms respond to proposed rule changes regarding Blackjack and player-banked games in California.
VIEWS: Is ESPN Bet trying to replicate Sky Bet? Or is it modeling itself on another media-sports betting mashup closer to home?
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Can we get some suspension transparency?
STRAY THOUGHTS: Trust and source material.
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A Look Ahead to Sports Betting Legalization in 2024
Sports betting legalization has slowed over the past few years (three states in 2022 and three in 2023). That shouldn’t be too surprising, as sports betting is increasingly a victim of its own success. At the start of 2018, there were 49 potential candidates. In 2024, there are 12.
In addition to fewer candidates, the remaining states haven’t legalized sports betting for a reason. Each has unique structural issues that have prevented legislation from passing.
Without counting the possibility of retail-only states expanding into mobile betting, there are 12 states sans legal sports betting. Eight of those states could shift into the legal category in the coming years:
California
Georgia
Hawaii
Minnesota
Missouri
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas
Four are far less likely, but not totally out of the question:
Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Utah
Below is a quick look at the three states with a legitimate chance to legalize sports betting in 2024. Remember, these are the best candidates, which doesn’t necessarily make them good candidates. Truth be told, 2024 could be the first year sports betting has gone winless since the fall of PASPA in 2018.
Georgia
Georgia is a great-on-paper candidate.
Georgia’s problem is threefold:
The state wants to legalize several forms of gambling, with each lacking the support to pass on their own or as a combined effort.
It doesn’t have brick-and-mortar gambling establishments.
Georgia may or may not require a constitutional amendment to legalize sports betting.
The confusion around the different forms of gambling and what the legislature can and can’t do on its own has prevented the Peach State from legalizing sports betting thus far.
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming highlighted Georgia in a recent EKG Lines newsletter (subscribe here).
Per EKG:
Lawmakers and stakeholders remain engaged despite bills having failed in five consecutive sessions.
We are hearing that there will again be an effort to add casino gambling and parimutuel betting to a sports betting ballot measure bill.
EKG favors a standalone bill noting the historical instability of “kitchen-sink type approaches.”
Minnesota
Minnesota is right there. The state needs to solve one fairly minor issue: what role (if any) the state’s two commercial racetracks might play.
The state’s tribes want 100% control, which has derailed legislation in 2022 and 2023.
Missouri
Missouri, like Minnesota, is being held up by a single issue, VLTs. Unlike Minnesota, the issue in Missouri is much grander and further complicated by the state’s somewhat unique legislative process that allows senators to filibuster and kill bills.
As I wrote several weeks ago:
According to Sen. Denny Hoskins, sports betting will not come to Missouri unless VLTs are part of the deal, whether he is in office or not - Hoskins is term-limited and will be out of office at the end of the 2024 session.
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The Trouble with Gambling Bills in Election Years
Another potential hiccup is that 2024 is a presidential election year.
Legislation, particularly gambling legislation, is difficult to pass under ideal circumstances. Election years, especially presidential election years, are less than ideal.
Three things happen during election cycles:
Lawmakers are busy fundraising and campaigning.
Major issues that impact voters suck up most of the oxygen in the room.
Non-urgent, polarizing issues, like gambling, are seen as unnecessary risks.
Because lawmakers are busy campaigning, they are distracted, and the legislative calendar is cut short. If a topic like online casinos or sports betting is in play, it typically passes at the eleventh hour. There isn’t an eleventh hour in election years. By the summer, everyone is in full campaign mode.
Points two and three go hand-in-hand. The big issues (the issues people love to debate but never solve) are what voters want to know about. It’s rare for a lawmaker in a tight race to spend their political capital on an issue like gambling expansion, and very few want to cast a potentially controversial vote that could be used in an attack ad.
And speaking of attack ads… Gambling may not be an important issue to most voters, but it is perfect for challengers, no matter what side you are on because it is often linked to the big issues.
If you oppose a gambling expansion, your opponent can run an ad saying you don’t want to fund senior centers, education, or veterans, as many gambling bills earmark funds for these projects.
If you support a gambling expansion, expect groups to target you and say you’re destroying the social fabric and helping big businesses at the expense of your constituents.
It’s a lose-lose situation, which is why gambling is often ignored during election years.
CA Could Make Decision on Cardroom Rules This Week
As first reported in September, California regulators are considering two major regulatory changes. The first would prohibit Blackjack in commercial cardrooms. The second would create clear rules around player-dealer position rotation.
California tribes and cardrooms have submitted comments on both issues, with a decision from the California Bureau of Gambling Control coming as soon as tomorrow.
As explained by Play USA’s Matthew Kredell, cardrooms argue that modern Blackjack is a different game than 21, which was prohibited in 1885 - the rule set is markedly different.
Tribes called the proposed regulation concerning and suggested a less complicated solution: “We believe that a better approach would be to clearly define the rules for a game that is allowed, with all modifications prohibited. Such an approach would provide clarity to both cardrooms and the public. It also would make enforcement by the State significantly easier.”
The player-banked dealer rotation is a more convoluted matter (explainer here). Tribes oppose the concept entirely, the way it was brought into being (explainer here), and the current rules governing the rotation of the deal. The last point, which is the most feasible, is what the tribes are currently targeting.
As the tribal statement on the current proposal reads:
“For nearly a decade, we and many tribal governments throughout California have been seeking relief from what we believe to be unlawful games at cardrooms… both proposals require work to achieve necessary clarity and ensure all interested parties have a clear understanding regarding games offered at card rooms versus banked games authorized solely to Indian tribes pursuant to voter-approved amendments to the California Constitution.”
ESPN Bet to Follow Sky Bet theScore Model
Every media-sports betting mashup points to the success of Sky Bet as their raison d'être. ESPN Bet is no different, as its G2E presentation lists Sky Bet as Case Study #1. But as many (including me) now argue, Sky Bet was “lightning in a bottle.”
As Chris Krafcik wrote on LinkedIn a while back, “Sky Bet nailed the media integration model, but that was slow-burn + lightning-in-a-bottle. In U.S. OSB, meanwhile? So far, not good for that model (see, e.g., Fox Bet, theScore, Fubo, and MaximBet).”
But unlike others, ESPN Bet has Case Study #2, a case study that Penn has intimate knowledge of and will weigh heavily on ESPN Bet’s success: theScore Bet in Canada.
In its ESPN Bet G2E presentation, Penn Interactive notes, “theScore Bet has achieved double-digit market share in the ultra-competitive Ontario market based on deep ties to media app.”
In May 2022 (legal online gambling launched on April 4 in Ontario), Penn CEO Jay Snowden said nearly 80% of theScore Bet bettors were also using theScore media app.
In a press release marking the one-year anniversary of online gambling in Ontario, theScore said, “We’ve enjoyed an incredibly successful first year of operation, in which Ontario has become PENN’s top performing market in North America. theScore Bet resonated with customers in the same way our sports media app has for years, resulting in consistent, strong performance across sports betting and online casino.”
Another tidbit from the one-year anniversary: theScore ranked second behind Bet365 in app downloads (15.5%) in Ontario.
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Transparency matters and recent gambling suspensions have left us in the dark.
Shane Pinto’s 41-game suspension has everyone, including Sports Handle, wondering what he did to receive such a lengthy penalty.
Dustin Gouker at The Closing Line wrote, “In today’s era of increased attention on sports betting, leagues and players associations should arguably want as much transparency around gambling as possible.”
As the Gaming News Canada substack put it (I highly recommend clicking the link and reading this piece), “the Pinto suspension, which was announced last Thursday and prompted your curious correspondent to speak/exchange emails/trade texts with various parties last Friday and over the weekend.” Narrator voice: The responses to Gaming News Canada were all boilerplate.
And then there is the PGA, which suspended two Korn Ferry (a developmental league) players with little explanation.
One of the players explained his transgressions on the Any Given Monday podcast. According to Jake Staiano (via SBC Americas), “he placed four wagers that amounted to $116. While one was on Bryson DeChambeau to birdie in a 2021 PGA Tour event, the other three were on the exhibition game between DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka.
Considering what Staiano did (the most misdemeanor of misdemeanors), maybe that’s why there isn’t much transparency.
Stray Thoughts
Benny Binion famously said, “Trust everyone, but always cut the cards.” In my little corner of the gambling universe, that means fact-checking and going to the source.