Stick A Fork In It
Stick A Fork In It
California sports betting is deader than dead in 2024, and Maryland's highly anticipated online gambling study could doom legalization hopes.
The Bulletin Board
NEWS: Closing the door on the recently filed California sports betting initiatives.
NEWS: Study makes a good case for legalizing online casinos in Maryland, but one finding could be a death blow.
QUICK HITTERS: DraftKings MA market share; LA casino revenue slips again; DFS is safe (for now) in NC; Fanatics Casino in WV.
VIEWS: ESPN Bet’s hefty app download numbers get a mixed reaction.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: ESPN Bet sets precedent for refunded bets.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Two recommendations.
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California Does Not Know How to Party
Last week, the California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA) voted to “oppose two sports wagering initiatives that were recently filed with the California Secretary of State’s office.” The vote (the tally was 18-0) was taken after a meeting between the initiative’s backers and the CNIGA executive committee.
CNIGA Chairman James Siva didn’t pull any punches in rebuking the initiatives:
"The entire effort surrounding these initiatives was handled abhorrently by the initiative sponsors. It is hard not to be offended when listening to these individuals speak. This is another example of outside influences trying to divide and conquer Indian tribes. We will not let history repeat itself.
"California tribes have been successfully engaged in the gaming market for more than four decades. This didn’t happen by mistake, nor without careful consideration on the effects to our members and our surrounding communities. Tribal Leaders are the experts, and we will decide what is best for our people.
"Now that the sponsors have heard directly from tribes that their efforts are not supported, we call on them to drop the initiatives as they have pledged to do if tribes were to oppose them. Our opposition could not be more clear and is irrevocable.”
My friend Victor Rocha foreshadowed the eventual outcome on X, “So, the poker bros spoke to CNIGA yesterday. They said they had conversations with tribes like mine & Morongo. A bald-faced lie. The conclusion: the tribes are positive they’re grifters. Emergency meeting today. Expect a complete repudiation of the grift.”
That was tame compared to Victor’s previous tweet about the initiative’s backers.
In slightly more positive news, FanDuel is trying to mend some fences in California, hiring Rikki Tanenbaum, former San Manuel COO, as SVP of Strategic Partnerships.
Tannebaum told Play USA in part, “FanDuel was already embarking on a listening tour to seek a better understanding of tribal views in California and elsewhere, and we both thought I could be helpful in those conversations.”
Once again, I’ll turn to Victor for analysis, as he tweeted, “A collective yawn is let out in California,” in response to the news. To no one’s surprise, the fences will not be mended with a “listening tour.”
Maryland’s Online Gambling Study Has A $200m Problem
The Innovation Group (TIG) has delivered its Maryland online gambling study to the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Agency.
The 49-page report does what every other report of this kind has done: makes a strong case for online gambling legalization… At least, it mostly does.
TIG expects the Maryland online casino-poker market to be worth $533 million in Year 1 and over $900 million in Year 4.
The TIG report has one extremely startling data point, and that data point is very likely going to derail Maryland’s (and potentially other states’) online gambling hopes.
According to the report, TIG “observed 2% same-store casino revenue growth in non-iGaming states, versus an 8.2% decline in iGaming states, suggesting a cannibalization rate of approximately 10% of casino gaming revenue.”
That would result in a $200 million loss in land-based casino revenue, and even though TIG noted that online gambling would boost revenue by $900 million (a $700 million uplift), it’s hard to ignore TIG’s assertion that iGaming cannibalizes brick-and-mortar casino revenue by 10%.
TIG says it “calculated ‘baseline growth’ rates for each group (states with iGaming, and states without) based on how much each group’s total population and Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) changed during the period. We did so to adjust for increases and decreases in a state’s or region’s brick-and-mortar gaming revenues due to changes in population or the overall economic environment.”
Still, with only four online casino states in 2019 (West Virginia went live in 2020 and Michigan and Connecticut in 2021), each should be carefully examined, particularly during the COVID lockdown era, when some states kept their casinos shuttered much longer than others.
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ICYMI News: DraftKings Rules MA; LA Casino Revenue; DFS in NC; Fanatics Casino in WV
DraftKings Is the End Boss in MA
Massachusetts sports bettors wagered $571.8 million in October. Sportsbooks reported $59.2 million in revenue.
DraftKings share was $304.8 million and $33.5 million. Both are well north of 50%. Its chief rival, FanDuel, came in a distant second with $155.6 million in handle and revenue of $15.5 million.
Analysis from Sports Handle’s Chris Altruda (the best numbers man in the industry)
Lousiana Casino Revenue Declines… Again
As I’ve noted in the past, Louisiana is an online casino-poker dark horse, especially if the state’s casino revenue continues to slip, as it did for the ninth consecutive month in October.
NC Kicks the Can Down the Road
Daily fantasy sports operators can breathe a sigh of relief (at least for now) as the North Carolina Lottery scrapped its proposal to redefine DFS to prohibit Pick’ Em style contests.
We’ve also learned that Bet365 will enter the NC market following a deal with the Charlotte Hornets.
Fanatics Online Casino Debuts in WV
Fanatics’ first online casino is live in West Virginia. The online casino is a rebranded and revamped version of the PointsBet online casino that was already live in West Virginia.
What Can We Learn from ESPN Bet’s App Downloads?
People are rightly pointing out that app downloads don’t equal registrations. And they certainly don’t correlate with customer retention once those free bets are gone. Still, ESPN Bet isn’t just leading the way in app downloads; it’s setting new high-water marks, which ESPN Bet hype man Mike Mags keeps tweeting.
As Sam McQuillan tweeted on Thursday, “ESPN BET set a record for the most downloads of any sports betting app in a 2-day span, this past Tuesday-Wednesday, Citizens JMP Securities estimates.”
Per the JMP report, the ESPN Bet app was downloaded 180,000 times on Wednesday (ESPN Bet launched just before 4 PM on Tuesday).
“To put the start into perspective, Wednesday was only behind DraftKings Super Bowl 2023 and FanDuel Super Bowl 2022,” JMP said, adding that ESPN Bet is having a rising tide effect, as other sports betting apps saw a 35% uplift, which could signal ESPN Bet is in fact pulling in new bettors.
Alternatively, “When you go live in 17 states in 1 day, I imagine it is quite easy to break a record,” Jason Ziernicki tweeted.
And as the EKG Line newsletter (subscribe here) put it:
Of course, downloads should be treated with a hefty pinch of salt, especially in an app's launch week. Tiny sample size, DLs from non-legal states, and glitchy product are just a few of the many sources of noise on this channel.
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
A refund that makes sense?
What is a “Seeing Green” bet? It’s a pick by an ESPN personality (in this case, Mike Greenberg) promoted and boosted on the betting app.
The refund does two things:
It might increase the number of people wagering on the promoted bets, as there is a precedent for a built-in insurance policy.
It sets an expectation that promoted/boosted bets are treated differently (as they should be) - ESPN Bet did not refund a separate force majeure event.
It also raises the question: Where does ESPN Bet draw the line on refunds? Is it Q1 injury? H1? Bad call by a ref? Is it limited to major stars?
Stray Thoughts
Where do I get my news?
I have several newsletter subscriptions, visit Sports Handle and Legal Sports Report, and monitor several must-follow accounts on X. However, there are two other places that I want to talk about, as I find myself increasingly citing these sources.
One of the best sites you’re likely not reading for solid reporting is Bonus.com. Bonus.com absorbed Online Poker Report (including the talented Alex Weldon and Heather Fletcher) when Catena Media mothballed the latter.
Bonus hits on stories few others cover, including the ongoing sweepstakes gambling cases, and more importantly, it covers them in-depth and factually (these are complex topics, and Bonus handles them well). It’s probably the best news page in the industry at the moment, as it has very few “fluff” stories and isn’t interspersed with betting picks and bonus code articles.
Another site I want to recommend is SBC Americas. Since landing Jessica Welman, SBC Americas has morphed from a depository for random industry press releases to a solid news site with exclusive reporting. Like Bonus, its news page is an actual news page and not cluttered with affiliate offers.