Big News
Big News
Three big newsletter updates to relay. Plus, Jontay Porter to be charged; the NCAA's prop betting ban; and how many sportsbooks can the US support?
The Bulletin Board
NEWS: Three newsletter updates.
NEWS: Jontay Porter will face charges in New York (and possibly Canada) for his role in a sports betting scheme.
WEEKEND HOUSEKEEPING: Caesars bolsters its SGP product. Will the 2024 WSOP Main Event be a record-breaker? John Mehaffey joins the pod.
NEWS: Checking in to see how successful the NCAA’s effort to prohibit college player prop bets has been.
BEYOND the HEADLINE: Prohibiting player props will not prevent harassment or safeguard game integrity.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Is there room for more at the sports betting table? It doesn’t appear so.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Face your challenges with your chin held high.
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A Big, Bigger, and Biggest Announcement
First, the big news: The newsletter has reached 2,000 subscribers. Thank you so much for your support, and if you haven’t already, please consider upgrading to a paid subscriber.
And the bigger news: I will be launching a weekend edition of the newsletter in the near future. “The Weekender” will include a snippet of the Top 3 stories of the week, as well as summaries of the week’s podcast episode and feature column.
And the biggest news: I have officially launched Straight to the Point Consulting.
Why hire me? Over the years, I’ve advised startups, national gambling companies, government agencies, and investment banks on a wide variety of topics.
Whether you’re looking for market research, want to raise your brand awareness, or are trying to develop responsible gaming strategies, I can help with honest, balanced, no-nonsense analysis of the situation.
Reach out for a free consultation to see if I’m the right fit.
Jontay Porter Will Face Charges in Betting Scandal
It’s official: former Toronto Raptor Jontay Porter will face charges for his role in a sports betting scheme that saw the roleplayer provide insider information to associates.
An NBA investigation concluded that Porter tipped off bettors that he would be withdrawing from a game early. The bettors used that information to create an $80,000 parlay bet on Porter unders with a payoff of $1.1 million.
“Federal prosecutors in Brooklyn filed what’s known as a criminal information sheet on Tuesday. The document doesn’t specify a court date or the charge or charges, but it does show the case is related to an existing prosecution of four men charged with scheming to cash in on tips from a player about his plans to exit two games early.”
Legal Sports Report posted a copy of the court docket, which doesn’t list any specific charges.
Four coconspirators have already been charged in the case, and Canadian authorities are also investigating Porter.
Craig Abrams, spokesperson for the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP), told ESPN that after an initial assessment into the betting irregularities around former Toronto Raptors player Jontay Porter, the Investigation and Enforcement Bureau has “determined a criminal investigation is warranted.”
Weekend Housekeeping: Caesars Acquires ZeroFluchs; WSOP Main Event Flirts with Record; This Week’s Podcast
Caesars hopes the acquisition of ZeroFluchs helps on the SGP front: Caesars Entertainment took a significant step toward enhancing its single-game-parlay offerings by acquiring Australian tech company ZeroFlucs. The acquisition appears to be of the “we like what we see” variety. Caesars previously integrated ZeroFlucs tech into its sportsbook through a commercial arrangement that led to the launch of several new markets, including “in-play same-game parlays and a vastly improved menu of “SGP-eligible” markets for Major League Baseball.”
WSOP Main Event challenging last year’s record: The 2023 World Series of Poker Main Event saw an all-time record 10,043 entrants turn up to compete for poker’s most prestigious award, shattering the previous record of 8,773 set at the height of the Poker Boom in 2006. with registration still open for the first couple of levels of Day 2d, that record could (emphasis on could) fall - entrants currently stand at just under 9,500. No matter what, 2023 wasn’t a fluke, as 2024 will be the largest or second-largest turnout in tournament history.
The ins and outs of advantage play and the affiliate business: My latest podcast episode features someone I’ve known and respected for many years: John Mehaffey. John and I talked about the early days of the Poker Boom, how we both landed in the affiliate industry, and how it has changed over the years. We also find time to rant about terrible practices in the affiliate space, including some of the behaviors that frustrate us the most. This was a great conversation that could have carried on for hours. I highly recommend giving it a listen.
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Flutter + Boyd = Possible Penn Suitor?
There was some pretty interesting news on the Penn sale rumors front in the Earnings+More Newsletter this morning. According to The Deal, the rumored Boyd interest may not be the entire story, as a second suitor has now been named: Flutter.
However, Flutter and Boyd aren’t competing bidders. Boyd is interested in Penn’s land-based casino assets, while Flutter is interested in digital assets, namely, Penn’s joint venture with ESPN and theScore, which Penn bought for $2.1 billion.
A joint acquisition of Penn’s varied assets makes way more sense than Boyd purchasing the whole kit and kaboodle, particularly considering Boyd’s existing stake in FanDuel - E+M notes that the joint acquisition would provide Flutter an opportunity to reacquire Boyd’s 5% ownership in FanDuel.
However, a third multi-billion-dollar corporation entering the picture will make an already complex deal even more challenging.
A very interesting part of this is the value of Penn’s interactive assets, estimated to be between $500 million and $1 billion. Recall that Penn paid $2.1 billion for theScore and cut its losses, at around $500 million, with Barstool Sports. That doesn’t include its deal with ESPN or marketing and other losses. Basically, the US sports betting game is expensive and not for the faint of heart.
There’s a long way to go, but the most intriguing possibility is a FanDuel-ESPN deal. After all, Sky Bet, owned by Flutter, is the gold standard (and there really isn’t a silver or bronze) for media-betting mashups.
Checking In On the NCAA’s Prop Bet Ban
The NCAA’s effort to prohibit prop betting on college athletes has met with mixed results. During the first half of 2024, Ohio, Maryland, Vermont, and Louisiana regulators acted on the NCAA’s request. Montana said no, and Iowa said any change would need to go through the legislature. Several other states are in the process of considering the NCAA request.
However, the modest success is a bit misleading, as the NCAA didn’t start from zero. Nine states already prohibited college player props:
Arizona
Colorado
Massachusetts
Oregon
New York
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Virginia
West Virginia
Four other states restrict college player prop bets in some way:
Iowa – allowed for out-of-state schools
Illinois – allowed for out-of-state schools
Rhode Island – allowed for out-of-state schools
Indiana – live player props are prohibited
At 17 states and counting, including 13 complete bans, college player prop bans are the most popular collegiate betting restriction, according to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (a newsletter sponsor). That puts the restriction ahead of “no bets on an in-state college” (14 states) and “no bets on an in-state event” (8 states).
Beyond the Headline: Prohibition Doesn’t Work
I’m a bit of a broken record on this, but these prohibitions will not achieve the NCAA’s stated goals of reducing player harassment and increasing game integrity.
People can still bet offshore or with corner bookies, so player props are still readily available, and match-fixers could still approach athletes.
A player’s performance will still impact wagers on teams, so idiot bettors will still blame the player for losing bets.
The correct way to deal with each of these isn’t through a prohibition on these bets. No, the correct way to deal with player harassment is to punish the perpetrator. The proper way to ensure game integrity is to turn player props into entertainment markets and limit bets on college player props to an amount that would make match-fixing silly.
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
This is a really interesting tweet from Ryan Butler. It notes the initial expectations and the stark realities of state-by-state US sports betting.
It’s expensive, the markets are structured in wildly different ways, and the biggest players are willing to use money as a barrier to entry against smaller operators.
Stray Thoughts
“Most obstacles melt away when we make up our minds to walk boldly through them.” ~ Orison Swett Marden