Cold Water In The Face
Cold Water In The Face
Texas will be a hot topic on the sports betting legalization front, but most insiders are pessimistic that anything will get done.
The Bulletin Board
NEWS: Texas sports betting is facing an uphill battle in 2025.
NEWS: Michigan online casino revenue hits a significant milestone.
VIEWS: A (not-so-new) creative idea to get the online casino ball rolling.
NEWS: Was the Missouri sports betting battle all over nothing?
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Affiliates and disclosures.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Start by de-escalating yourself.
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Insiders Are Already Writing Off Texas in 2025
I’ve termed Texas casinos, California mobile sports betting, and New York online casinos, the gambling industry’s Holy Grail, White Whale, and Philosopher’s Stone. “Long sought after, seemingly attainable, but always just out of reach.”
We all want these dreams to turn into realities, and while a recent Casino Reports article begins by listing the myriad reasons Texas won’t expand gambling in 2025, it also offers a glimmer of hope should the right people win state senate races.
Still, Dallas Stars President Brad Alberts doesn’t expect much to change. “I think it’s in the same spot it was,” Alberts told Legal Sports Report in June. “The same challenges exist, which is a resistant Senate, led by the lieutenant governor… Obviously, those same personalities are still in office.”
Longtime public affairs and government relations advisor Josh Faber is even less optimistic, replying to the Casino Reports article on LinkedIn:
Still, in the words of Jim Carrey, “So you’re saying there’s a chance.”
That chance requires Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick to move on (there are rumors he will be on the short-list for a cabinet position in the Trump administration).
“There is a small chance that Texas could be on the table if Trump wins and the lieutenant governor is appointed to a position within the Trump administration,” one industry source told LSR.
However, that not only needs to happen, but the next Lt. Gov. also needs to be more friendly to gambling expansions, which is unlikely given the Texas Republican Party’s anti-gambling platform position. As Ryan Butler recently noted, the most likely successor is also anti-gambling:
Michigan Online Casino GGR Eclipses $300 Per Adult
According to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (a newsletter sponsor), Michigan's online casino revenue per adult has hit $300 and is fast approaching New Jersey’s US-leading $315 per adult.
That’s a good sign for Flutter, which threw out some gaudy numbers during its Investors Day Presentation in September. It suggested that the combined US sports betting and online casino market could be worth $63 billion in 2030.
As I noted at the time, those numbers required New Jersey-level comps.
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming’s Chris Krafcik noted on LinkedIn that on a per-adult basis, Flutter’s projections are “pretty high”:
“If you make a squish-reasonable assumption about US 21+ population in 2030 (used 275mm), you get implied OSB GGR / adult of $177 and iGaming GGR / adult of $349.
“For context, the only market currently doing anywhere near this level of productivity is NJ, where T12M OSB GGR / adult = $163 and iGaming GGR / adult = $310.”
Gideon Bierer of Partis Solutions had a slightly different take, noting that New Jersey may be the best comp for other states in the future:
“I agree that NJ is an outlier, but with organic growth (& inflation), NJ will probably be way ahead of these metrics by 2030.”
Is Legalizing Live Dealer Games the Bridge to iCasino?
To say online casino legalization efforts have stalled is an understatement, which has led me to advocate for more creative ways to legalize online casinos and poker.
For several years, I’ve made the case for voter referendums as the most practical way to legalize online gambling.
“Online casino and poker legalization efforts have met with stiff resistance. The legislative path blazed by daily fantasy sports and widened by sports betting has been closed to casinos and poker. Instead of trying to jam a square peg into a round hole, there might be an alternative way to legalize these other forms of online gambling in various states: A voter referendum.”
And then in December 2023, the Baltimore Sun came out against the state’s online casino efforts, but it also presented an alternative idea that caught my attention a few months earlier:
“Our recommendation then is to go slowly and cautiously. Only a handful of states have legalized online casino gambling — including New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and West Virginia. One compromise might be, for example, to permit online poker games alone and then only with live dealers.”
This approach, along with a hefty tax on online slots, was how Rhode Island got an online casino bill over the finish line in 2023, and as I wrote at the time:
“The Baltimore Sun editorial board may have accidentally stumbled upon a good compromise if full-fledged online casino gambling is off the table: Legalizing online poker and live dealer online games, similar to how table games are handled in Rhode Island’s online gambling law passed earlier this year.
“My POV: The dearth of online casino legalization is a clarion call for new ideas, and small steps forward are better than no steps forward.”
Fast-forward to the present, and according to Play USA’s Matthew Kredell, Bally’s Chairman Soo Kim is proposing a similar incremental approach, starting with live dealer games in states like New York and Illinois, as a way to alleviate cannibalization concerns.
“Why not just live dealers? I actually think live dealer can be an interesting solution in a lot of places,” Kim said. “It’s like a half step. We don’t have to do iSlots yet because, with iSlots, there’s a lot of people fighting over it. That’s why I’m like, ‘Hey guys, instead of fighting over iSlots, why don’t we try to get live dealer?’ I bet you there will be very little resistance.”
Other industry sources told Kredell that while possible, such an approach would be more of a last-ditch effort if traditional efforts hit a roadblock.
I would propose that rather than relying on live dealers being a more acceptable product, a split tax rate, like Rhode Island, with higher rates on more controversial offerings like slots, might be the way to go, assuming the goal is legalization and not perfect legislation.
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Missouri Sports Betting Fight Was Over a Nonexistent Issue
The Missouri sports betting ballot initiative is the most expensive in the state’s history, and it appears the fight was all for naught. While not official, the Ballot initiative appears to have passed by a slim margin - despite some $14 million spent opposing it, more than triple the previous record spent against an initiative, which clocked in at $3 million.
In a statement, Jeremy Kudon, president of the Sports Betting Alliance, said of the measure passing:
"This is a huge victory for Missouri fans and for the diverse coalition that worked together to pass Amendment 2. Amendment 2 won even despite a historic $14 million spent in opposition – the most ever spent against a Missouri initiative. We are grateful to the Missouri professional sports teams who helped lead this effort and for the broad coalition that made this possible."
Straight to the Point understood the sticking point to be the language of the amendment and Caesar’s (who led the opposition effort) belief that they would be limited to a single license, even though they operate three casinos in the state.
However, a Missouri Gaming Commission spokesperson told iGB:
“Under the proposed Constitutional Amendment 2, the Missouri Gaming Commission is authorized to grant a mobile license to operate sports wagering to each qualified applicant that is “an owner of an excursion gambling boat” in Missouri. See Article III, Section 39(g)4(b)(1). Consistent with the advice of the Missouri attorney general, and upon further review, the Commission’s position is that the language of the Proposed Amendment allows for a mobile license for each excursion gambling boat in Missouri.”
This clarification by the MGC may have been the impetus for the “vote no” side pulling its ads in the final weeks of the election. And based on the closeness of the vote, that may have been the difference.
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Jeremy Kudon posed an interesting question on X about gambling affiliate disclosures:
I doubt this question is coming out of nowhere, and it could signal one of the ancillary policy points (affiliates) that could creep into future sports betting and online casino legalization discussions.
Chris Grove noted in his response that the murky relationships go beyond affiliates, which I would caution could lead to a slippery slope. Grove also argued that it’s not too difficult to figure out who affiliates are partnered with.
From my own experience, this shouldn’t be a big problem if there is an editorial/advertising divide. When I worked for affiliate companies, I wasn’t aware of every affiliate deal and had little knowledge of which deals generated the most revenue.
At the same time, I agree with Kudon. While I wasn’t forbidden from writing about a specific topic, it was clear some things were off-limits or had to be handled with kid gloves. And we all know how accurate the rankings and reviews are.
I’m hearing that the thumb on the scale is becoming heavier, and since affiliates deliver most of the industry news, that can be an issue. And really, it’s not too hard to insert a quick (affiliate partner) into articles that mention them.
Stray Thoughts
My attitude toward you determines my behavior toward you. My behavior toward you determines your attitude toward me. Your attitude toward me determines your behavior toward me. Your behavior toward me determines my attitude toward you.