10 Gambling Predictions For 2025

What does 2025 have in store for the gambling industry? I have 10 predictions, and if 2025 is anything like 2024, it will be an eventful year.

It’s that time of the year. The time of year when everyone (me included) puts on their prognostication hat and tries to peer into the future to see what 2025 has in store for the gambling industry.

---

SPONSOR’S MESSAGE - Sporttrade was borne out of the belief that the golden age of sports betting has yet to come. Combining proprietary technology, thoughtful design, and capital markets expertise, our platform endeavors to modernize sports betting for a more equitable, responsible, and accessible future.

Sporttrade is now live in their fifth state; Virginia

---

Affiliates (as we know them) Enter Their Death Throes

As I noted yesterday, the traditional model of gambling affiliates is under fire.

A dearth of new state launches, Google updates, advancements in AI, and a growing number of independent journalists switching to Substack and other content delivery channels has significantly eroded the traditional affiliate model, leaving affiliates with a difficult question: Are we still the go-to source for industry news, and if not, how should we reallocate our resources?

Gambling platforms are increasingly bypassing affiliates by directly targeting potential customers with personalized marketing that blends in-house campaigns with external podcasts, social media, influencers, and even live events.

This trend, combined with regulatory changes and a growing call for transparency in affiliate practices (David Rebuck’s comments on the NCLGS model legislation lacking the current draft of the legislation definitions and licensing requirements for affiliates), points to a declining role for traditional affiliates, requiring a transformation or extinction of the current model.

And speaking of AI…

AI Will Be Hit and Miss

Artificial Intelligence (AI) in online gambling will have mixed results in 2025. While AI could enhance personalization and customer experience and become a valuable tool for detecting problematic gambling behaviors, its effectiveness will vary.

Some platforms might misuse AI to manipulate player behavior, which raises ethical concerns. Others might think they are doing good but fall victim to the inevitable unintended consequences. Still, others might see AI as a shortcut, which never leads anywhere good.

STTP believes AI has the potential to significantly improve security and fairness in games, though not all implementations will be equally successful or beneficial. Expect a lot of trial and error, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

The Finish Line Will Remain Out of Online Casino’s Reach

Online gambling might feel ubiquitous, but the US will never reach its full potential until legal, regulated online casino gambling is widely available. The industry has been waiting for the online casino floodgates to open for more than a decade (with the annual “Is this the year?” refrain), but thus far, it’s only been an occasional trickle escaping.

Presently, only seven states allow online casinos. Stakeholder resistance and public concerns about problem gambling and job loss have kept the industry from reaching the finish line. That finish line is likely out of reach in 2025, given the country’s sports betting hangover and resistance from some casino stakeholders, labor unions, and some responsible gambling circles.

States Will Turn to Online Lottery Sales

As states seek new revenue streams, and with online casino legalization a hot-button issue, more states are likely to legalize or expand their online lottery offerings.

The pushback against online lottery is far below that of online casinos. Most importantly, the state is entirely in control, serving as both the regulator and the operator.

Online lottery products have been successfully deployed in 15 states plus Washington DC, and others might follow (as North Carolina did in 2023 and Massachusetts did last year), especially in economically challenging times. If you add courier services like Jackpocket, you can already buy lottery tickets online in 29 locales.

A Challenger Brand Sportsbook Will Make a Move

A new or lesser-known sportsbook brand might significantly impact the sports betting industry by leveraging innovative marketing, unique betting options, or superior user experience.

That could include anyone from well-known brands like Hard Rock, Fanatics, or Bet365, companies like Underdog or Sporttrade (newsletter sponsors), or, if the hype is to be believed, new entrants like Kalshi, Robinhood, or Crypto.com.