This Is The Way
The AGA's new responsible gaming messaging platform 'Play Smart from the Start' is a great first step to overhauling RG messaging. But its success hinges on execution.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: AGA blazes a new path forward for responsible gaming messaging.
ROUNDUP: Arkansas iCasino bill is dead; Missouri VLT bill advances; Tennessee bill would ban iLottery sales.
NEWS: North Carolina's budget proposal includes sports betting tax increase.
KALSHI CORNER: Kalshi adds single-game NBA markets; Making sense of trading volume; TN & prediction markets; High-level legal analysis.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: How you interact with sports matters.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Black Friday retrospective and why it could happen again.
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The Lede: AGA Reaffirms its Commitment to RG
I’m a little late to this story (thanks a lot, wave after wave of sweepstakes and prediction market news), but that’s because I didn’t want to gloss over it, as I think this story could represent the fundamental shift in responsible gaming messaging many of us have been hoping for.
So, kudos to the American Gaming Association (AGA) for strengthening its commitment to responsible gaming with a new messaging platform, dubbed ‘Play Smart From the Start.’
Play Smart from the Start shifts away from the current (primarily negative) messaging. “When it comes to promoting responsible gaming, positive messaging trumps negative warnings,” AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said. “Our research shows consumers are motivated by pursuing positive outcomes – fun, enjoyable entertainment – than by avoiding negative consequences.”
Miller said the AGA’s research uncovered “three foundational elements that underpin Play Smart from the Start’s new responsible gaming messaging that connects with customers.”
Those foundations, as listed by the AGA, are:
It starts by emphasizing the right mindset: staying focused on fun and enjoyment as the primary goal.
It includes empowering customers with knowledge – making sure they understand the games they are playing to make sure every bet is fun.
And it encourages intentional actions, promoting self-control by setting personal limits and boundaries that are unique to each player.
Because each of the three “foundations” hits on essential points I have been advocating for, I believe the campaign has the potential to be a game-changer.
Emphasizing the right state of mind is another way of saying: gamble for the right reasons. Don’t use gambling as a shortcut to wealth or an escape from problems. This mindset shift encourages players to prioritize enjoyment over chasing unrealistic outcomes, setting a sustainable foundation for their experience.
Empowering customers with knowledge means embracing transparency about the games. Understanding (in clear, black-and-white terms) that the odds are not in your favor can help you avoid falling victim to the illusion of control. For example, people on a hot streak often believe they’ve cracked the system, but even cursory knowledge about game mechanics, probabilities, and variance keeps expectations grounded. This commitment to truth helps players stay level-headed and engaged for the right reasons.
Finally, encouraging intentional actions is where the campaign truly shines. A goal without a plan is just a dream, and showing up to a casino or betting app with no specific strategy — games you’ll play, time limits, budget, or what you are reasonably expecting to happen — is a recipe for disaster. This isn’t just about playing; it’s about nudging gamblers into making deliberate choices, recommitting to a plan that prioritizes fun and responsibility over impulse.
STTP Thoughts: The game-changer lies in how these principles unify mindset, knowledge, and action. Unlike typical RG messaging, the campaign doesn’t just warn against pitfalls and present worst-case scenarios—it builds a proactive framework with guardrails and education, empowering players to take control of their experience and making responsible gaming a rewarding choice rather than a defensive tactic.
Some will argue that it pushes accountability onto the player while absolving the operator, but it’s a balancing act. Operators must uphold ethical standards, and players must navigate risks.
It’s similar to self-protection discussions in martial arts, which are rooted in preparation and awareness. Be aware of what is happening around you, but also be aware that something might go wrong before you leave the house, and prepare accordingly. Preparation and awareness don’t mean you’ll never be targeted, nor does it shift the blame solely to the victim or excuse the criminal—it just makes you harder to target and better equipped to deal with a situation that has gone south.
All that said, Play Smart from the Start is a solid foundation, but its success hinges on execution. The AGA and its members must fully commit to turning theory into action. That means promoting the campaign’s positive messaging and ensuring it’s consistently applied across all platforms—casinos, online betting, marketing, and staff training.
If anyone’s curious about diving deeper into making this work, I’m always happy to chat and share a few ideas—feel free to reach out."
Roundup: AR iCasino Bill Dies; MO VLT Bill Advances; TN Bill Would Ban iLottery
Arkansas online casino bill pulled, recommended for study [Play USA]: Last week, the Arkansas House Judiciary Committee recommended HB1861 for study. The recommendation came after the bill’s sponsor, Rep. Matt Duffield, withdrew his online casino proposal — the Arkansas legislative session has closed for the year.
Missouri VLT narrowly passes House [Casino Reports]: A bill, HB 970, that would legalize and regulate VLT machines in Missouri has passed the House in an 83-73 vote, and will now move on to the Senate, where it is likely to face stiffer opposition. Per Casino Reports, “The bill now goes to the Senate, where it may very well die, as Senate President Cindy O’Laughlin and Sen. Lincoln Hough, chairman of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, have both said the bill is unlikely to be called in the chamber before the lawmakers adjourn in the middle of May.”
Tennessee lawmaker files bill to repeal online lottery sales [Lottery Geeks]: Tennessee State Rep. William Lamberth’s HB 1330 would amend the state’s current laws “to remove language that arguably gives the authority to the Tennessee Education Lottery Corporation (TELC) to sell lottery tickets online.” At issue was a decision by TELC to begin offering online Powerball tickets via ACH payments, without legislative approval.
News: NC the Latest State to Consider Higher Tax Rates
As reported by WRAL’s Brian Murphy, the latest North Carolina budget proposal includes a doubling of the state’s sports betting tax rate, from 18% to 36%.
The North Carolina news comes on the heels of Ohio’s tax increase effort falling by the wayside (Gov. Mike DeWine was looking to double the tax rate for the second time in three years, from 20% to 40%, after doubling it in 2023 from 10% to 20%). DeWine’s proposal was stricken from the budget by lawmakers last week.
Other efforts to raise sports betting tax rates this year include:
Indiana: Indiana State Sen. Fady Qaddoura introduced a bill, SB 394, which would raise the tax on sports betting operators from 9.5% to 11% -- Rep. Ethan Manning’s online casino bill was amended to include a tax increase on mobile sports betting operators from 9.5% to 20%. Neither bill gained traction.
Maryland: Maryland Gov. Wes Moore’s budget proposal would increase the state’s sports betting tax rate from 15% to 30%. A budget agreement (not finalized) between the legislature and the governor included a more modest 5% increase. Neither effort was passed, and both are dead for the session.
New Jersey #1: New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy’s budget included tax increases on sports betting and online casinos, with both rates jumping to 25%. More from STTP here.
New Jersey #2: New Jersey Rep. Rosy Bagolie has introduced a bill, A5349, that would push the rate to 30%. A companion bill has been introduced in the Senate, S 3064.
Massachusetts: SD 1657 would increase the sports betting tax rate to 51% and radically restrict the Massachusetts sports betting market.
Kansas: Last week’s news about Kansas isn’t a tax increase per se, but the impetus is for the state to negotiate a better deal that drives more revenue.
There was also an effort in New York to reduce the tax rate. S 6013, filed Carrie Woerner, the new Chair of the New York Assembly Racing & Gaming Committee would open the New York mobile sports betting market to seven new licensees and decrease the tax burden on all operators from 51% to as low as 25%, with the rate dependent on the number of operators.
Kalshi Corner: NBA Markets; More on Trading Volumes; TN Regulators Have Questions; Legal Analysis
Three small pieces of prediction market news today.
Kalshi adds single-game NBA markets [The Event Horizon]: “Prediction market Kalshi listed four markets for the play-in tournament for the NBA postseason on Monday afternoon. It’s the first time Kalshi has offered single-game NBA markets.”
Handle vs. trading volume [The Closing Line]: Yesterday, I discussed the difference between sports betting handle and what Kalshi reports as trading volume. Dustin Gouker got assistance from Sporttrade’s David Huffman to take a deeper look at how trading volume works. As Huffman explained, handle represents “actual exposure,” while trading volume “captures all matched trades, regardless of whether they represent new risk, and regardless of the counterparty.” The full guest post is worth a read for anyone still having trouble understanding the difference.
Tennessee regulators submit comment to the CFTC on prediction markets [Geoff Zochodne]: We have another state with a negative view of prediction markets, per a tweet from Covers.com Geoff Zochodne: “Tennessee's Sports Wagering Council is the latest group to comment on sports event contracts to the CFTC ahead of its prediction market roundtable. In short, the TN regulator believes sports event contracts "are being offered in violation of Tennessee law and regulations.”
Two Reasons Sports Prediction Markets May Worry Despite Kalshi's Nevada Win [Andrew Kim]: Andrew Kim, a partner at Goodwin Law, has been posting some excellent analysis and commentary on the ongoing legal proceedings, and a recent LinkedIn post is no exception. In the post, Kim notes that Kalshi’s claim that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” may not be quite so exclusive, as well as the elephant in the room that is IGRA, which Kim believes would conflict with a positive CFTC ruling on sports markets: “A key principle of statutory interpretation is that you interpret federal laws in a way that doesn’t cause problems with other federal laws.”
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Stray Thoughts
Today is the 14th Anniversary of Black Friday, and it is absolutely mind-boggling how nothing has really changed, as David Lappin pointed out in a column yesterday, which is also a great recap of the events that took place 14 years ago:
“Fourteen years on and the memory of Black Friday still looms large in the minds of many poker players and industry professionals. For others, however, it feels like the memory has been repressed. Lessons should have [been] learned about the long arm of the law and the enormous power of the United States DOJ and the FBI. Instead, it feels like we have allowed ourselves to sleepwalk into a virtually identical set of circumstances.”