A First Time For Everything
Word on the street is Brian Quintenz is out, and the White House is looking at new candidates to head the CFTC, including the sitting SEC chairman.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Quintenz is out. So who is in the running to head the CFTC?
ROUNDUP: Catena launches subaffiliate program; Bally’s selling RI casino to REIT; Chicago VGTs take a step forward.
NEWS: Nebraska stakeholders make a late push for mobile sports betting.
VIEWS: Kalshi continues to close the pricing gap.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: The gambling world lost a great one.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Live for the moment.
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The Lede: Is Quintenz Out of the Running for CFTC Chair?
Donald Trump’s pick to head the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ran into a problem of Winklevii proportions. The sudden opposition delayed multiple committee hearings, and considering his scorched-earth social media posts (where Quintenz posted private conversations with the Bitcoin billionaires), it’s very likely he is no longer in the running.
Last week, Bloomberg reported that the White House was considering other candidates, including Tyler Williams at the Treasury Department and Mike Selig at the Securities and Exchange Commission.
But according to Brogan Law, there could be even more palace intrigue, as another possible candidate has emerged, sitting SEC Chair Atkins. Which would make the CFTC something of a subcommission to the much larger SEC — recall that only one of the five CFTC commissioner positions is filled, and there are no nominees to fill the others.
However, as Brogan Law noted, “A single individual chairing both Commissions has never been tried before. Nobody even knows if it is legal.”
“But here’s what matters most for readers of this newsletter [Brogan Law]: the CFTC is important to crypto because it regulates futures, including crypto perpetuals, DCMs, and prediction markets like Polymarket. And it could become even more important. Should a market structure bill ever make it to the president’s desk, the CFTC could, in an instant, become the primary regulator of all spot crypto markets. That means that whoever takes the helm could be the most important regulator for the entire industry by the end of this year.”
What would Atkins bring to the table? His views on cryptocurrencies are more developed than those on prediction markets, but in general, he is seen as pro-innovation and supportive of emerging technologies.
On Crypto:
He launched Project Crypto, a SEC-wide effort to modernize securities rules for on-chain markets, aligning with efforts to make America the “crypto capital of the world.” This includes developing guidelines to classify crypto assets (e.g., distinguishing digital collectibles, commodities, and stablecoins) and stating that “most crypto assets are not securities.”
Atkins supports tokenization of traditional securities, self-custody of digital assets, decentralized finance, and integrated "super-apps" that allow trading of both securities and non-securities under one license.
He has criticized past "regulation by enforcement" tactics and proposed an "innovation exemption" to enable quick market entry for new technologies without burdensome requirements.
On Prediction Markets:
Atkins has expressed support for clarifying and expanding access to prediction markets, viewing them as part of broader financial innovation.
In a joint statement with the CFTC on September 5, 2025, Atkins acknowledged the rapid growth and growing demand for prediction markets from both market operators and the public, and expressed interest in harmonizing regulatory approaches between the SEC and CFTC to enable increased market choice and pro-innovation frameworks.
Roundup: Catena’s Subaffiliate Program; Bally’s Selling RI Casino; Chicago VGTs Take a Step Forward
Catena Media launches subaffiliate platform for North America [Next.io]: Per Next.io, “Catena Media has launched MRKTPLAYS.com, a subaffiliation platform connecting affiliates to operators in North America.” As Next.io notes, “The launch follows a tricky period for the business, which has recently emerged on somewhat solid footing after a series of terrible quarterly financial reports, which eventually resulted in the ousting of the previous CEO.”
Bally’s looks to sell Rhode Island casino to REIT [Casino.org]: “Bally’s is selling the property assets of its Twin River Lincoln Casino Resort in Lincoln, RI to Gaming and Leisure Properties (NASDAQ: GLPI) for $735 million — a move that will assist the seller in paring debt… With the help of the sale-leaseback (SLB) on the Lincoln property, Bally’s landed an extension of a $460 million revolving credit facility to Oct. 1, 2028. That loan was originally scheduled to come due on Oct. 1, 2026. By way of the Lincoln deal, the gaming company also reached a deal with creditors to slash debt.”
Chicago VGTs take a step toward legalization [ABC 7]: “Chicago city leaders gave the initial approval to bring video gambling to the city. The committee on License and Consumer Protection signed off on bars and restaurants installing machines on Tuesday… Ninth Ward Alderman Anthony Beale introduced the proposal back in July.” The city council will consider the proposal this week.
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News: Nebraska Will Take Another Bite at the OSB Apple
A new effort is underway in Nebraska that would expand the state’s sports betting offerings to include online platforms. “Nebraska advocates are preparing a signature collection campaign to place the issue of mobile sports betting before voters on the 2026 general election ballot,” KLIN News Talk Radio reports.
The effort comes after the state legislature failed to pass a ballot referendum for the second consecutive year. As I noted when the 2025 effort fizzled out in April, “Legislative efforts may be kaput, but lawmakers did say sports betting operators could try to get a citizen-led initiative on the 2026 ballot.”
In 2024, the legislature made a couple of attempts, including during a special session. That effort came up short:
“Nebraska lawmakers are using a special session to rekindle efforts to legalize online sports betting and, perhaps, daily fantasy sports.
“However, a separate bill, LB 21, would need to pass for that to happen. Currently, constitutional amendments need to be approved four months before the election. LB 21 would reduce that period to 60 days.”
Backers of the effort include the Nebraska Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Association and WarHorse Gaming, a division of Ho-Chunk, Inc., the economic development corporation of the Winnebago Tribe of Nebraska.
Supporters will need to collect enough signatures in three to four weeks to get the measure on the 2026 ballot via two petitions: a constitutional amendment and a supporting statute.
Views: Is Kalshi Beating Sportsbooks’ Prices?
I’ve been following the pricing differences between Kalshi and traditional sportsbooks. Until now, sportsbooks seemed to offer the better value. That may no longer be the case.
Per The Bear Cave Substack newsletter, at least in some cases, Kalshi is now offering better odds:
“On Tuesday evening, The Bear Cave reviewed prices for all upcoming Sunday NFL games and found in many cases Kalshi offered better odds than DraftKings. For example, for the Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, DraftKings will pay $157.50 for a $50 bet on the underdog Giants, while the Kalshi market offers $170, after fees, for the same bet.”
Citizens, which has been tracking Kalshi’s pricing for several weeks, also noticed the gap closing, but its larger sample size shows Kalshi still behind DraftKings and FanDuel:
“We tracked pricing on Friday (9/19) afternoon, whereby pre-game odds across these games had worse pricing on Kalshi when adding in the transaction fee compared to the traditional sportsbooks, on average, although closing the gap.”
FanDuel: Week 3 implied pricing was 4.41%, compared to 4.47% last week, and 4.43% in Week 1.
DraftKings: Week 3 implied pricing was 4.50%, compared to 4.48% last week, and 4.51% in Week 1.
Kalshi: Week 3 implied pricing was 4.84%, compared to 5.12% last week, and 5.31% in Week 1.
How important is pricing? It depends on how active customers are. As I previously wrote, the best price on everything often trumps the best price on individual items:
“People will avoid the known-to-be-expensive grocery store. On the other hand, if a town has three competitively priced stores, they are unlikely to go through the store flyers to find the lowest price on each item and then visit all three stores (there is little value to that decision); they’ll choose the one that has the best prices on most of the things they need. That’s the difference between value and price sensitivity.”
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Absolutely gutted to hear this news.
I never had the pleasure of meeting Sportsbook Consig in person, but every interaction online and on my several appearances on Bostonian vs. the Book, Dave was so upbeat and gregarious that he was infectious. Dave was the real deal and as authentic as they come; the same in our public and private conversations. I will sorely miss his Charlie Murphy gifs whenever he agrees with something I said.
The outpouring on gambling Twitter says it all: Dave was universally beloved.
My heart goes out to Dave’s family and close friends.
Stray Thoughts
“So make haste to live, my dear Lucilius, and think of each single day as a single life.” ~ Seneca
“You’re only here for a short visit. Don’t hurry, don’t worry. And be sure to smell the flowers along the way.” ~ Walter Hagen
“Life is short, break the rules, forgive quickly, kiss slowly, love truly, laugh uncontrollably, and never regret anything that made you smile.” ~ Mark Twain
And a double song day: