A Fools Hope
In 2025, Florida and possibly Arizona, offer a glimmer of hope for online casino expansion amidst a generally pessimistic legislative landscape.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Online casino legalization is unlikely in 2025, but two tribal gaming states have the potential to shock the gambling world.
MIDWEEK ROUNDUP: Phil Hellmuth joins RSI; ESPN Bet coming to DC; Caesars and Bragg expand partnership; WY iCasino bill introduced.
VIEWS: DraftKings Sportsbook+ subscription service is its latest attempt to create a paradigm shift.
NEWS: CFTC Initiates Review of Crypto.com’s sports markets and asks company to suspend markets.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Intralot and DC reach a settlement.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Food for thought from a great thinker and a great gambler.
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The Lede: Tribes Provide an Alternative Path to iCasinos
There isn’t much hope for online casino legislative efforts in 2025, but, as Gandalf told Pippin, “There never was much hope. Just a fool's hope, as I have been told.” And we all know how that turned out.
There is always the chance of a surprise, and STTP considers tribal gaming states the best dark horse contenders in 2025.
One such state is Florida, where the legalization of online casinos can be achieved through a tribal compact between the governor and the Seminole Tribe. The legislature would then need to ratify the compact.
The compacting process helps insulate lawmakers from much of the criticism in an increasingly charged political environment around online gambling.
Also working in Florida’s favor is that the original compact that brought mobile sports betting to the state requires the Seminoles and the governor’s office to begin the online casino compacting process within three years after the sports betting compact’s effective date.
Another consideration is the possibility that current Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis could leave to join the Trump administration — this is looking less likely as Pete Hesgeth appears to be on track to be confirmed as Secretary of Defense. Without getting too deep into the speculative weeds, depending on the timing and circumstances, this could be positive or negative for online casino efforts.
Online casinos in Florida also came up at NCLGS in December, where Ryan Butler reported, “The Seminole Tribe of Florida is set to discuss a compact deal in 2025 that would allow online casino gaming, per GLI Executive Gabriel Benedik; the Tribe previously removed iGaming provisions from the compact that permitted mobile sports betting.”
For an even darker dark horse candidate, STTP would point to Arizona. The state crept into the discussion after a September iDEA Growth Webinar, during which Matt Olin, CEO of Apache Gaming Enterprise, said he “wouldn’t be surprised if [iGaming] came very soon.” More recently, at the Arizona Indian Gaming Association Expo in October, tribal attorneys said that while nothing is imminent, talks have begun.
Midweek Roundup: Hellmuth Joins RSI; ESPN Bet Coming to DC; Caesars + Bragg; WY iCasino bill
Phil Hellmuth joins BetRivers as brand ambassador: Poker legend Phil Hellmuth has signed an exclusive agreement with Rush Street Interactive to join the BetRivers team as a brand and content partner… across RSI’s Casino, Sportsbook, and Poker verticals, including the RSI-owned Poker Night in America show. The press release notes in-app promotions, hosting events and content, appearances, and dedicated online poker tournaments on the BetRivers Poker site.
ESPN Bet partners with Monumental Sports & Entertainment for DC access: ESPN Bet is coming to the nation’s capital after Penn Entertainment reached an agreement with Monumental Sports & Entertainment (the parent company of the Washington Wizards, Mystics, and Capitals) for market access in Washington DC. Per the press release, “As part of the agreement, ESPN BET will work closely with MSE to enhance the fan experience through a multi-channel, integrated marketing partnership.” That includes prominent in-arena and media components, including in-game broadcasts, signage, and in-arena advertising.
Caesars and Bragg to develop exclusive content: Caesars Entertainment has enhanced its partnership with Bragg Gaming, which includes an exclusive game development collaboration and a lease of Bragg’s Remote Gaming Server technology. Per the press release, Bragg and Caesars will initially develop a number of online casino games for Caesars' digital platforms as well as a delivery platform for Caesars' in-house games studio to create proprietary, custom game titles. “Bragg’s technological expertise has consistently exceeded our expectations throughout our partnership,” said Matt Sunderland, Senior Vice President & Chief iGaming Officer at Caesars Digital. “This expansion marks an important step in our strategic growth plan to develop our own proprietary digital slots and table games content and to offer something truly exclusive for our players.”
Late Add: Wyoming online casino bill introduced, per Daniel Wallach. STTP will have more on this in an upcoming newsletter.
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Views: Is DraftKings Subscription Service the “Mythical Product-Market Fit?”
DraftKings’ new subscription service, Sportsbook+, has garnered a lot of headlines, and like myself, nobody quite knows what to make of it.
Is it the company trying to squeeze every nickel out of bettors and push more customers to parlays?
Is it the latest “innovative” idea that will flop and wind up in the waste bin?
Is it a Planet Fitness-like strategy (as Dustin Gouker put it) to get people to sign up for a low-cost subscription they won’t cancel in case they want to create a parlay?
Or, is it DraftKings latest attempt to flip the sports betting world on its head?
It reminds me (in two ways) of something Netflix cofounder and former CEO Marc Randolph said on the Diary of a CEO Podcast:
“If it was a bad idea, even spending a month crafting this perfect test wasn't going to make it a good idea. But if it had even an inkling of being a good idea, no matter how bad the test was, customers would immediately perk their heads up… It was this incredibly loud signal that there was something there.
“[…]
“Eventually, we got to this point where… Netflix was pretty big. We probably had several hundred thousand DVDs in our warehouse, and I remember one day Reed and I were in the warehouse and looking at all these DVDs and going; it's such a shame that all these DVDs are here in the warehouse where they're not doing anyone any good. I wonder if there's a way to store them at our customers’ houses, let them keep them, and then, when they're done, mail them back… Rather than having them have to pay each time they replace it let's just have a monthly fee a subscription and they can rent as often as they want there's no due dates and no late fees.
“It was a ridiculous idea, but when we tested it, it was that mythical product-market fit. It worked. People loved it. They couldn't get enough of it. They told their friends.”
Not only is DraftKings’ latest idea a Netflix-like subscription model, but the company, like Netflix under Randolph, is proving it’s not afraid to try new ideas.
Yes, like the situation Netflix found itself in (you can listen to the entire podcast to learn about that), it runs the risk of ruin, but it might stumble upon what Randolph called the “mythical product-market fit.”
CFTC Initiates Review of Crypto.com Sports Markets
This is turning into one of the fastest rollercoaster rides in recent memory, and how the government is going to deal with prediction markets is anyone’s guess at the moment.
Days after it was announced Donald Trump Jr. was joining Kalshi as a strategic advisor, which had everyone bullish on the incoming Trump administration’s standing on prediciton markets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced a review of Crypto.com’s two sports contracts and requested the two markets be suspended until the review is complete.
In a press release, CFTC said it had notified Crypto.com that “it will initiate a review of the two sports contracts that were self-certified and submitted to the CFTC on Dec. 19, 2024.”
“The CFTC determined the contracts may involve an activity enumerated in CFTC Regulation 40.11(a) and section 5c(c)(5)(C) of the Commodity Exchange Act. As required under CFTC Regulation 40.11(c)(1), the CFTC has requested that Nadex suspend any listing and trading of the two sports contracts during the review period.”
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Intralot may be long gone from the DC sports betting market, but it’s not an out-of-sight, out-of-mind situation, as the company recently settled with the District for deceiving officials to win the sports betting contract:
From the DC Attorney General’s press release, “OAG Investigation Revealed that Intralot and VSC Conspired to Win and Profit from District’s Lottery and Sports Betting Contract by Deceiving Officials About Compliance with Small Business Contracting Laws.”
More from SBC Americas Justin Byers: DC Council fines Intralot $5M for lying to secure sports betting contract
Stray Thoughts
Two quotes to share today.
The first is from Søren Kierkegaard: "Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards."
The second comes from Nick (Nick the Greek) Dandolos — this is a gambling newsletter, after all: "The house doesn't beat the player. It just gives him the opportunity to beat himself."