A Revised California Timeline
It's time for California to get into the sports betting game, and efforts should focus on mobile betting in 2026.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Looking back and ahead at California’s sports betting efforts.
WEEKEND ROUNDUP: NJ considers changing the penalty for underage gambling; Parimutuel wagering delayed in NC; A couple of articles by me.
NEWS: Swish Analytics has filed a lawsuit against OddsJam and OpticOdds.
VIEWS: Two US Reps introduce a bill banning election betting.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Crypto.com jumps into sports betting.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Catching up on the last week and looking ahead to 2025.
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The Lede: Is California Ready for Mobile Sports Betting?
In a May podcast appearance, Victor Rocha told Straight to the Point that a plan was in place for California: retail betting in 2026 and mobile betting in 2028.
As we head into 2025, multiple factors could accelerate that timeline. But before discussing what has changed, let’s examine how California got to this point.
How CA Got to This Point
California’s sports betting journey began in 2021-2022 when several groups attempted to place sports betting initiatives on the 2022 ballot.
There were initially four proposals:
A tribal-led retail-only proposal that eventually became Prop 26.
An online effort that would allow tribes to partner with commercial operators that eventually became Prop 27.
A tribal-led online proposal (pushed by the San Manuel tribe) that was eventually withdrawn from consideration
An effort from California cardrooms that failed to collect enough signatures.
The two proposals that made the ballot were roundly defeated (the mobile betting option finished with 17% of the vote). Rather than try to garner support, both sides went negative, ensuring the other side’s effort would fail.
In 2023-2024, a new effort emerged that could best be described as a Hail Mary pipedream. As I wrote when the effort first came to light in November 2023:
“The plan, as laid out by Kasey Thompson, Reeve Collins, and Joe Versaci, to Play USA is to cleanse offshore sportsbooks through some sort of sale to tribal entities in California.”
The effort was mercifully shelved in early 2024.
Making a Case For 2026
STTP believes there is momentum for tribes to push their online betting timeline from 2028 to 2026.
First, getting a measure on the ballot in California is expensive. Doing it twice (once for retail and once for mobile) with no guarantee that either will succeed could be costly—the failed 2022 initiatives cost around $600 million in total.
Two significant changes have occurred since the failed 2022 efforts and the laughable 2023-2024 effort.
Commercial sportsbooks have adopted a conciliatory approach to working with, not against, the tribes.
The presence of sweepstakes and other gray market operators has provided a sense of urgency.
Tribes and commercial operators are largely on the same page regarding the approach (see the passage below) and the existence of sweepstakes sites, which are proving extremely difficult to eradicate.
“Some suggest that tribes can do it alone and partner with B2B companies. However, I’m having trouble envisioning a world where the major online operators sit on the sidelines while tribes and B2B suppliers push through a mobile betting initiative in California. They would have to oppose such a measure, which could very well lead to another failed (and costly) ballot initiative, costing California tribes hundreds of millions of dollars and eating up several more years of precious time."
“Yes, tribes hold the keys to the market, but they will need the expertise of commercial operators to get peak performance out of the car. Tribes are not mobile sports betting experts, and in a world where they partner with B2B suppliers, they would be in the driver's seat or have to pay someone to chauffeur them around (too many car analogies?). The suppliers aren’t going to supply that expertise for free, nor will they do the marketing for the tribes, as the major operators would.”
Bottom line, 2026 seems like the wiser play for mobile betting in California.
Here are a couple of things to watch for that will bode well for a 2026 ballot push:
San Manuel (the biggest proponent of online amongst CA tribes) taking a leadership role
CNIGA issuing a clear statement of support
Weekend Holiday Roundup: NJ May Change Underage Gambling Penalty; Parimutuel Wagering Delayed in NC
NJ could change underage gambling penalty: “New Jersey lawmakers are considering changing the law to make gambling by people under the age of 21 no longer punishable under criminal law, making it subject to a fine,” the AP reports. If implemented, underage gambling would be reduced from a criminal to a civil offense with a $500 fine for the first offense, $1,000 for a second offense, and $2,000 for subsequent violations, with the money used for prevention, education, and treatment programs for compulsive gambling.
Parimutuel wagering in North Carolina delayed: Mobile sports betting wasn’t the only thing North Carolina legalized in 2023, but unlike mobile sports betting, parimutuel wagering is in a holding pattern. Per Goff Zochodne of Covers.com, “The North Carolina State Lottery Commission unanimously approved a staff recommendation on Wednesday to revisit the adoption of the proposed Subchapter C rules at a later time,” essentially pushing off a parimutuel launch into 2025.
Extra articles by Steve: I contributed to two year-end stories, one for Covers.com and another for CDC Gaming Reports, which you can find below.
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News: Swish Analytics Files Lawsuit Claiming Misappropriation of its Data
Swish Analytics has filed a lawsuit against two of its competitors, claiming they are taking proprietary odds information from the Swish Analytics site and repackaging and selling it to clients.
In the complaint, Swish accuses OpticOdds and OddsJam of “unauthorized “scraping” or similar automated retrieval of information from websites, unauthorized access to Application Programming Interfaces (APIs), or similar unauthorized copying efforts.”
Per Daniel Wallach on LinkedIn:
“Leading B2B sports betting oddsmaker Swish Analytics has sued rival odds providers Oddsjam and OpticsOdds in San Francisco Superior Court, alleging that the two companies misappropriated Swish’s proprietary sports betting odds information directly off its sportsbook clients’ websites and then republished and sold access to that information to others, causing $100m+ in damages.”
The complaint reads in part:
“Swish is informed and believes that, in many cases, one or both Defendants have attempted to directly compete with Swish by offering sportsbooks and other customers access to Swish’s own proprietary information taken from Swish’s sportsbook partner websites in an effort to undercut Swish.”
“[…]
“Defendants primarily sell access to odds information created by Swish and others. Indeed, Defendants prominently advertise that they take odds information from third party sportsbook websites, and then repost and resell that same information through their own websites to consumers and enterprise customers. For example, OddsJam boasts that it provides ‘real-time odds for main market, alternate markets, and player props from 100+ sportsbooks.’”
“[…]
“Defendants’ misappropriation and unfair competition must come to an end. Swish conservatively estimates that the damage caused by Defendants’ conduct is at least $100 million, and likely significantly more.”
“Defendants have attempted to directly compete with Swish by offering sportsbooks or similar enterprise customers access to Swish’s own proprietary information in an intentional effort to maliciously harm and unfairly compete with Swish.”
As some noted in response to Wallach’s post, the IP ownership of odds is complex. Precisely who owns what and at what time has long been argued to no avail.
You may recall that Gambling.com Group recently acquired OddsJam, a consumer-facing, subscription-based sports betting news and data website, in a deal worth up to $160 million.
NEWS: Not So Fast, Election Betting
Election betting scored a legal victory earlier this year, but the battle is far from won.
The Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has appealed the ruling, and in Congress, efforts are afoot to prohibit election betting in the House and Senate.
Reps. Andrea Salinas and Jamie Raskin introduced a mid-December bill prohibiting election wagering. The Ban Gambling on Elections Act is a carbon copy of Sen. Jeff Merkley’s Ban Gambling on Elections Act, introduced in September. Merkley’s bill was cosponsored by Sens. Chris Van Hollen and Sheldon Whitehouse.
The bills are short and sweet, reading:
“Section 5c(c)(5) of the Commodity Exchange Act (7 U.S.C. 7a–2(c)(5)) is amended by adding at the end the following: ‘‘(D) PROHIBITION RELATING TO POLITICAL ELECTIONS OR CONTESTS.—Notwithstanding any other provision of this section, no agreement, contract, transaction, or swap involving any political election or contest (or any index, measure, value, or data related thereto, or occurrence, extent of an occurrence, or contingency based thereon) may be listed or made available for clearing or trading on or through a registered entity.’”
As STTP previously reported, “The incoming Congress is likely to continue the fight, and like most issues, it appears to be a partisan issue,” with Democrats vehemently opposed to election betting markets and Republicans less resistant.
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Crypto.com has launched the first 50-state sportsbook Sports Event Trading app.
Chris Grove’s TL;DR summary of the Crypto.com launch (the entire thread is worth a read): “Crypto.com's move into sports betting is a watershed moment that could fundamentally reshuffle the competitive landscape for gambling in America.”
In a LinkedIn post, Grove opined that the incoming Trump administration appears to be receptive to both Crypto and prediction markets:
“The inevitable is now becoming reality.
"Trade your predictions. Profit when you're right. Regulated in all 50 U.S. states."
”That's the tagline for Crypto.com's new sports betting product, which operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.“[…]
“I haven't heard the American Gaming Association take a position on these products (maybe I missed it). But this link should be rocketing through the inbox or chat app of every analyst, every C-suite, every investor, and every stakeholder with an interest in the U.S. regulated online betting market.”
My small addition to the discourse on X is: “The gray industry is definitely in a "push" phase (and seemingly from every direction imaginable), but eventually someone pushes back... Or not.”
Stray Thoughts
After a week off, I’ll catch up on several news items in this week’s newsletters. Apologies in advance if you see something you consider “old news.”
Wednesday and Thursday will “look back” on the most significant and under-the-radar stories from 2024.
The Friday feature column will look at my predictions for 2025.