A Small But Important Market
Alberta's regulated online gambling industry is set to launch next week. Here's why the province is bigger than its population of five million.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Everything you need to know about Alberta’s iGaming launch.
ROUNDUP: A look at the stories you may have missed.
NEWS: New York hands Kalshi a legal loss, but only one court’s opinion matters.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Can AI spot bluffs?
STRAY THOUGHTS: Did I do that?
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The Lede: Alberta Readies for iGaming Launch
Alberta’s regulated online gambling industry is set to launch on July 13, with roughly 25 operators set to go live — nearly 50 operators have applied for a license, including most of the usual suspects from south of the border: FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, and bet365. Existing unregulated operators face a hard cutoff of July 13, and must cease operations or risk enforcement action.
One of those operators that is unlikely to ring a bell in the US — but is well known in Alberta — is Pure Casino Entertainment which recently announced a multi-year partnership with Kambi. Per the press release, “Kambi will supply its Turnkey Sportsbook to Pure Casino Entertainment, one of the largest casino operators in the Canadian province of Alberta. The multi-channel agreement will see Kambi support the operator’s retail sports betting ambitions across multiple properties – including locations in Calgary, Edmonton and Lethbridge – as well as launching online sports betting under its PureCasino.ca brand following the opening of Alberta’s regulated market on 13 July 2026.”
A Lot of Interest for a Population of Just 5 million
Alberta has around five million residents, but estimates suggest tax revenue in the first fiscal year will be over $50 million — about $275 million in gross gaming revenue. That’s a big number considering the tax rate is very reasonable, with 2% going to First Nations and 1% to responsible gambling, with the province (80%) and operators (20%) splitting the rest.
Some estimates have the Alberta market reaching $1.3 billion at maturity, which would explain the operator interest.
Another reason the launch is of interest is Alberta could be the nudge needed for the seven other provinces (and three territories) that have yet to regulate online gambling.
And yet another reason is the lack of online casino launches across North America in recent years, which makes every launch significant:
Pennsylvania — 2019
West Virginia — 2020
Michigan — 2021
Connecticut — 2021
Ontario — 2022
Rhode Island — 2024
Alberta — 2026
Maine — Not yet launched
Marketing and Advertising Restrictions
One of the most notable aspects of Alberta’s framework is its focus on responsible gaming, including strict advertising rules, including:
Ads cannot target or be directed at minors; including restrictions on cartoon characters or social media influencers.
Current and retired athletes are banned from gambling promotions, with the exception of responsible gambling messaging.
Promotions must be truthful and non-misleading.
Bonuses and promotions are opt-in: “Advertising and marketing materials (including algorithmic based ads) that communicate gambling inducements, bonuses, and credits are prohibited, except on an Operator's gaming site and through direct marketing and advertising, after receiving express player consent.”
Alberta will use a centralized self-exclusion system.
There needs to be 2.5 seconds in between slot spins, and auto-spin features are prohibited — the player must click a button every spin.
Despite the focus on responsible gaming, Alberta’s online gambling sites will be 18+ (most US states are 21+ and Ontario is 19+).
Further Reading
And here is a really good read on the upcoming launch from Gaming News Canada:
Roundup: So Much News; So Little Newsletter Space
Michael Jordan (yes, that Michael Jordan) will be speaking at SBC Summit [Press Release]: “SBC Summit 2026 will host one of the most high-profile keynote sessions ever staged in Europe by bringing together three of the most influential figures in global sports business: Basketball icon, investor, and philanthropist Michael Jordan, Sportradar founder and CEO Carsten Koerl, and DraftKings co-founder, CEO, and chairman of the board Jason Robins, hosted by former Sky Sports News presenter, broadcaster, and journalist, Kirsty Gallacher.” STTP Thoughts: It will be interesting to see if Jordan has something interesting to say, or if this is being billed as a “conversation that transcends the industry” because… Michael Jordan.
North Carolina governor signs budget bill with gambling reforms [SB 257]: North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein has signed the recently passed state budget that increases the sports betting tax rate by 5%, signs off on prediction markets (taxing them at a whopping 6%), and requires tax reporting on winnings over $2,000, but also makes losses tax deductible against winnings (up to 90%) for the first time.
Peter Schoenke named CEO of Fantasy Life [Press Release]: “Fantasy Life, the award-winning fantasy sports and gaming company founded by legendary fantasy football analyst Matthew Berry, today announced the appointment of RotoWire co-founder Peter Schoenke as Chief Executive Officer. In his new role, Schoenke will lead Fantasy Life through its next chapter of growth as the company continues expanding its media, technology and gaming experiences. He joins the company following a funding round led by LRMR Ventures and SC Holdings, helping accelerate Fantasy Life’s vision of becoming the premier destination for fantasy sports. STTP Thoughts: Fantasy sports don’t get much attention these days, but they are still quite popular.
NCAA President is still trying to ban college prop bets [CBS News]: In a recent interview, NCAA President Charlie Baker said he “hopes to ‘dramatically limit’ prop betting at the collegiate level and beyond, warning about how the sports betting practice has changed the ‘character and the culture of fandom,’ and demeaned student athletes.” Full transcript of the interview from Face the Nation, or watch it below.
Caesars will not hold a Q2 earnings call amid acquisition talks [Earnings+More]: “Caesars Entertainment, which is currently the subject of a take-private on the part of Fertitta Entertainment, has announced its earnings release date on July 28 but said it would not be conducting a call with the analysts.” Previous STTP reporting on the proposed acquisition of Caesars by Fertitta Entertainment.
AGA announces 2026 Gambling Hall of Fame Inductees [Press Release]: The American Gaming Association (AGA) has announced the Gaming Hall of Fame Class of 2026:
Holly Gagnon, Board Member, Bragg Gaming Group
Bill G. Lance, Jr., Secretary of State, Chickasaw Nation
Scott Olive, Principal & Founder, HRG Studios
Timothy J. “Tim” Wilmott, Retired Chief Executive Officer, PENN Entertainment
New Jersey prediction market bill could be taken up later this year [New Jersey Monitor]: “A proposal to tax prediction markets that did not clear floor votes in either legislative chamber before lawmakers broke for their customary summer recess will return along with legislators come the fall, Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin (D-Middlesex) told the New Jersey Monitor. The bills, which cleared both chambers’ budget committees in party-line votes, would enact a 9% surtax on prediction markets’ net income in a bid to draw more revenue for the state.” This is one of many prediction market bills STTP tracks for Forecast Tier subscribers.
Kalshi spreads money around to Democrats and Republicans [Notus.org]: “Kalshi co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara want you to bet on everything — but the duo is personally hedging their bets on whether Republicans or Democrats will win control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. Mansour and Lopes Lara have together donated about $1 million to federal political campaigns and political action committees this election cycle, according to a NOTUS analysis of federal campaign finance records. They’re contributing to a broad range of Democratic and Republican campaigns — many of the candidates they’ve contributed to are involved in prediction market regulation in Congress.”
NCPG looking to hire a director of strategy for its Financial Services & Trading Initiative [Legal Sports Report]: The National Council on Problem Gambling has posted a job opening for a director of strategy for a newly created Financial Services & Trading Initiative. “The job posting comes as the NCPG continues to build out its Financial Trader Health and Safety Initiative, which launched in June,” after it controversially allowed Kalshi to join its ranks. Previous STTP coverage of Kalshi joining the NCPG and the damage control the NCPG has been conducting ever since.
Views: Kalshi Takes an L in New York
I’ve been saying all along that there is only one court that matters in the states vs. prediction markets cases, some updates are more important than others, and the recent decision by the US district court for the Southern District of New York denied Kalshi’s request for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction.
“For the reasons explained below, the Court finds that New York gambling laws as applied to Kalshi’s sports event contracts are not preempted by the CEA and Kalshi has not, therefore, made a clear or substantial showing that it is likely to succeed on the merits.”
In the decision, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that federal regulatory approval does not prevent New York State from enforcing its own consumer protection and gaming laws:
“This argument lacks merit and misinterprets the authority of Kalshi’s self-certification of its sports-event contracts. As stated above, the CEA’s text and structure, as well as the historical context of New York’s interest in regulating gambling through its police power, demonstrate that Congress did not intend to preempt all state actions that may relate to DCMs. Instead, the CEA leaves room for states to regulate tangential issues that may arise from trading swaps and other financial products on DCMs. As other courts have noted, the congressional record for the CEA Case supports the view that when enacting the Special Rule, Congress sought to prohibit the exact types of event contracts that Kalshi seeks to offer.”
Kalshi is appealing the decision to the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, but the Attorney General and the Governor both took a victory lap (a joint statement can be found here).
As attorney Daniel Wallach noted on X, “The presumption against preemption applies because the regulation of gambling is a core state police power. Thus, Kalshi needed to clear a much higher bar — the “clear and manifest purpose of Congress” standard — to persuade the court that federal preemption applied.”
The court also found no field preemption and no conflict preemption. On field preemption, Wallach tweeted:
“Savings clause in Section 2 exclusive jurisdiction provision leaves room for states to regulate. b) Special Rule statutory provision “clearly reflects” an affirmative intent to preserve state laws governing whether particular conduct is lawful or unlawful. c) CEA expressly prohibits state gambling regulation in other contexts, but not this one.”
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
No, please no!
Stray Thoughts
In a combat sport setting, there are three ways to create openings:
Passive Opening – An opening in your opponent’s defense that already exists;
Active Opening – An opening your opponent creates through their action;
Responsive Opening – An opening created when your opponent reacts to you.
What does this have to do with gambling… nothing directly. But this week’s podcast (which should be up on Saturday) has very little to do with gambling directly, but is well worth your time to listen to.