A Work In Progress
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour is drawing a clear line between its stance and policies on insider trading and how some of its peers handle it.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Kalshi beefs up its insider trading policies.
NEWS: Sporttrade shifts to prediction markets.
ROUNDUP: A look at the stories you may have missed.
QUICK HITTER: Genius Sports’ acquisition causes stock to tumble.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Prediction markets are getting lots of attention, but do they want it?
STRAY THOUGHTS: A top-tier Twitter account.
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The Lede: Kalshi CEO Doesn’t Support Insider Trading
In a lengthy X post, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour provided his thoughts on insider trading, and the company’s policies to counter potential market manipulation:
“Insider trading erodes trust. When people believe a market is unfair, they stop trading. Liquidity dries up, volume collapses, and the market dies. Also, allowing it could incentivize bad actors to leak information they shouldn’t.
“So Kalshi bans insider trading.”
According to Mansour, Kalshi has “spent years building a market surveillance system similar to those used by the NYSE and Nasdaq.” Those systems have led to “200 investigations… over a dozen have become active cases and several have been referred to law enforcement.”
Mansour went on to list several new measures the company has put in place:
1. Wharton Forensic Lab: We’re bringing Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab Director Daniel Taylor, one of the premier forensics experts in the country, to advise us. He will help us investigate intricate “cousin of the spouse of the dude at Tesla” insider cases.
2. Brian Nelson: We’re adding Brian, former Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, to counsel us on financial compliance and market integrity.
3. Surveillance Audit Committee: We’re forming an independent committee of market integrity experts like Lisa Pinheiro to provide quarterly reports to Brian and publish relevant statistics.
4. System upgrades: We’re partnering with Solidus Labs. Their institutional-grade behavior monitoring and pattern recognition tools will be added to our systems.
5. Robert DeNault as Head of Enforcement: Bobby is a force of nature and a self-professed financial crime nerd. He was a white-collar criminal attorney and spent law school studying presidential investigations and the Panama Papers. He’s also a great guy - we love Bobby.
STTP Thoughts: These are the types of policies and developments I can get behind. As I’ve said several times, I have no issue with prediction markets, I just want regulatory guardrails in place.
News: Sporttrade Officially Shifts to Prediction Markets
STTP Note: Sporttrade was the newsletter’s featured sponsor in 2024-2025.
After several years attempting to bring exchange wagering to the legal sports betting market at the state level, Sporttrade is changing course, and has petitioned the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to become a registered exchange and clearinghouse.
“Today marks the opening of an incredibly exciting chapter of the Sporttrade journey.” Sporttrade’s founder and CEO Alex Kane said in the press release. “The CFTC’s market-based regulatory framework enables Sporttrade to provide market participants an elevated level of efficiency, transparency, and consumer protection relative to what we’ve been able to offer to date.”
“With Michael Selig confirmed as chairman, Sporttrade has now taken its place in line alongside at least eight other pending applicants seeking CFTC approval as a prediction market exchange.
“[…]
“Even if Sporttrade succeeds in getting approval, the company will enter at a market share deficit to exchanges already operating under the CFTC. Those companies have spent chunks of their hundreds of millions of dollars in venture capital funds on aggressive national marketing campaigns in recent months. (And on PR and lawyers.)”
The application process is not fast, and could take anywhere from several months to a couple of years, although Sporttrade believes it can receive approval before the start of the 2026 NFL season.
I made the case for states to legalize a second peer-to-peer (exchange) model in a feature column.
Kane discussed the many barriers states have erected that prevent a different model (an exchange model) from getting licenses in his STTP podcast appearances.
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Roundup: So Much News; So Little Newsletter Space
Gambling companies donate to KY Gov.’s reelection campaign [Kentucky Lantern]: Kentucky-based gambling interests are donating big to Gov. Andy Beshear’s super PAC: “As a super PAC, In This Together can accept contributions of unlimited amounts, and it got some big ones: $100,000 from Churchill Downs, $100,000 from Lexington Trots Breeders Association (The Red Mile)… Legal gambling interests in Kentucky continue to donate big to Beshear causes. In addition to the six-figure contributions by Churchill and The Red Mile’s owners, ECL Entertainment, which owns all or part of Kentucky’s legal gambling parlors in Franklin, Bowling Green, Corbin and Williamsburg, gave $35,000.”
Guardians pitcher may have rigged pitches in dozens of games [ESPN]: “Indicted Cleveland Guardians pitcher Emmanuel Clase is accused of throwing suspicious pitches to benefit bettors in at least 48 games over two years, significantly more than was initially revealed by federal prosecutors, according to a court document filed Thursday.”
Louisiana bill gives parishes a mulligan on sports betting [Legal Sports Report]: When Louisiana legalized mobile sports betting in 2020 each parish (the LA term for county) voted on authorization, and nine of the 64 parishes said no. A new bill would give those areas a second chance. “The nine parishes, or counties, that did not approve mobile sports betting would get another chance to allow sports betting under HB 72. The bill was assigned to the House Committee on Administration of Criminal Justice.”
Mississippi House passes mobile sports betting [HB 1527]: For the second year in a row, the Mississippi House has passed a mobile sports betting bill. It was passed by the Mississippi House on 2/2/2026, and has moved over to the Senate, where it is expected to run into stiff opposition. As currently written, it allows licensed casinos to partner with up to two mobile betting platforms. The bill has minimal financial burdens, with a $1,000 licensing fee and a tiered tax rate system on gross revenue: 4% on up to $50,000/month, 6% on $50,001-$134,000/month, and 8% on over $134,000/month.
Congress narrowly approves gambling addiction research [SBC Americas]: “The Defense Appropriations Act for FY2026, a bill that provides $838.7 billion in total spending, would establish federal government funding for gambling addiction research for the very first time. It would provide funding for research into gambling addiction in both active and veteran military members through the Department of Defense’s Peer Reviewed Medical Research Program (PRMRP), which gives grants for medical research and treatments. The House approved the bill in a 217-214 vote; it still needs to be signed by President Trump.
Fanatics executive moving to Polymarket [EKG Line]: “Ari Borod, chief business officer of Fanatics, and former FanDuel/Action Network exec, is expected to join Polymarket in an executive role, per Front Office Sports. Fanatics and Polymarket declined to comment to FOS, but Borod no longer appears on the Fanatics Betting and Gaming leadership page. The move is arguably the highest profile switch to-date from OSB to prediction markets.”
Sportradar sues rival firm claiming data piracy [Earnings+More]: “Sportradar has initiated a legal action in Israel that accuses fellow sports and betting data distribution company LSports of systematically stealing valuable data and the pirated distribution of live sports broadcasts. The suit alleges that LSports illegally exploited up-to-date data collected by Sportradar. It claims that LSports sold the data and AV broadcast output without having the appropriate license.”
Quote of the Week contender: “As we get new bills, I hear ‘It’s happening already, so let’s regulate it.’ When are we going to just slow down and take a breath? You don’t even have to have on pants to gamble with this one! You don’t have to put on pants, you don’t have to take a shower, you don’t have to leave the house. I understand that if it is going to happen, I want it to have the strongest bill possible, so if I need to vote in order to keep the conversation going, I will. But please understand where I ultimately stand. This is just a bridge too far.” ~ Virginia Del. Marcia Price who (reluctantly) voted yes on the state’s online casino bill in committee
Quick Hitter: Genius Sports Acquires Legend for $1.2B
Every billion-dollar acquisition is big news, but Genius Sports’ $1.2 billion acquisition of sports media company Legend is one that may raise some eyebrows.
From the press release:
“Genius Sports has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Legend, a global, digital sports and gaming media network built to monetize attention, in a transaction valued at up to $1.2 billion, including $900 million payable at closing and an earnout of up to $300 million.”
For those who are largely unaware of Legend, one of its flagship sites is Covers.com (frequently referenced in Straight to the Point):
“Legend monetizes sports audiences through a scaled media network, with world-class marketing technology powering owned and operated digital properties. It also syndicates sports and betting content across major publications, such as Sports Illustrated and Yahoo Sports.”
Recall that Genius’s chief rival, Sportradar, acquired the assets of XL Media in late 2024 for $30 million.
And at least early on, the markets seem to have the same opinion as yours truly (some added color from Earnings+More, which spoke to several analysts):
That POV is also Joe Brennan Jr. approved:
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
It’s safe to say that sports betting/prediction markets are going to get even more attention than the heaps of attention they are already getting (here are two examples, but I could list about 50 I’ve seen in mainstream press in the run-up to the Super Bowl).
Of note, Blumenthal is working on a bill that would rein in sports betting and prediction markets:
And then there is this:
My second favorite part of this “New Rule” is the terrific analogy between Sky Masterson (in real life, Titanic Thompson) and prediction markets.
My favorite part is the rant, complete with the overturn of PASPA being a horrible development, was delivered in front of Chris Christie — also, Christie is throwing heat during the Overtime segment.
Stray Thoughts
FanDuel Founder Nigel Eccles offers a lot of candid takes on X, and is fast becoming one of the better follows on prediction markets (you can follow him here):
