The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Nevada Judge rescinds Kalshi’s preliminary injunction.
ROUNDUP: Chicago tax update; More (big) prediction market news; Underdog exits Missouri.
VIEWS: NHL Commissioner explains prediction market deal.
NEWS: Robinhood and Susquehanna team up to offer PM.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Yes, there will be a newsletter tomorrow.
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The Lede: Kalshi vs. Nevada Is Getting Very Interesting
I don’t want to post about prediction markets every day, but the volume of news makes ignoring them impossible.
Yesterday brought several high-profile developments.
Let’s kick this one off with a Nevada judge rescinding the preliminary injunction previously granted to Kalshi.
A little over a week ago, I noted that Nevada was becoming one of the key battlegrounds:
“Things are starting to get interesting in Nevada, and at the center of it is Nevada District Judge Andrew Gordon.
“Judge Gordon previously granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction against the Nevada Gaming Commission, allowing the platform to offer event contracts in the state. The ruling found that the contracts qualified as derivatives under federal commodity laws, thereby preempting state gambling regulations.
“However, in a separate but similar case involving Crypto.com, Judge Gordon denied their motion for a preliminary injunction months later, ruling that Crypto.com’s sports-event contracts did not meet the definition of swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), thus subjecting them to Nevada’s gambling laws and leading Crypto.com to halt such offerings in the state.
And here we are, with things getting very interesting, as Kalshi suffered a significant setback in its Nevada case on Tuesday, when Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved the preliminary injunction he had previously granted.
Given Gordon’s prior ruling against Crypto.com (previously covered by STTP) and his questions for Kalshi during oral arguments, the ruling was not unexpected.
“The stakes are now raised big-time in Nevada. If Kalshi does not obtain a stay pending appeal from the federal courts, Nevada is going for the jugular—criminal enforcement proceedings in state court.” Wallach tweeted out. He later reported that the Nevada Gaming Control Board issued a new notice following the decision, “Stating that it will ‘vigorously oppose’ Kalshi’s motion for stay pending appeal and ‘will continue to expeditiously pursue a path through the courts to stop Kalshi’s unlawful conduct.’”
As Dustin Gouker noted, the ruling could lead to maximum chaos (as if the landscape wasn’t chaotic enough already):
Also, we are hurtling toward a future in which prediction markets are either ubiquitous or nonexistent; there seems to be no middle ground.
Or as Chris Grove tweeted, “I honestly can’t tell you how the prediction market brouhaha will resolve, but it seems increasingly unlikely that fintech and regulated gambling can both end up winners. Someone is going to lose, and the stakes keep escalating.”
There’s also some excellent analysis in Gouker’s Event Horizon Substack on yesterday’s ruling, including some thoughts from Attorney Andrew Kim.
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Host Brad Allen is joined by EKG analyst Alun Bowden and Adam Small from Third Planet Media to discuss:
How Polymarket and Kalshi can deliver on their recent funding rounds by growing outside of sports
Whether they can ever get past the core ecology problem faced by other P2P games like poker and DFS
Listen to the episode here.
Roundup: Chicago Tax Update; More Prediction Market News; Underdog Exits Missouri
State lawmakers urge Chicago to axe proposed sports betting tax [Chicago Sun-Times]: Thirty Illinois House Democrats have written to the Chicago City Council, urging them to oppose Mayor Brandon Johnson’s proposal to add a 10.25% city tax on online sports betting. However, as local press reports, the budget hole keeps getting bigger: “The City Council’s Finance Committee has already blown a $100 million hole in Mayor Brandon Johnson’s proposed 2026 budget by shooting down the corporate head tax he wants. If alderpersons kill Johnson’s plan to apply Chicago’s 10.25% amusement tax to online sports bets — as the House Democrats demanded Thursday in a letter to 50 alderpersons — the gap that needs to be filled would get $26 million bigger.”
Kalshi files motion to dismiss in Wisconsin [InGame]: “Kalshi has filed a motion to dismiss a Wisconsin tribe’s lawsuit against the prediction market, arguing that the tribe has no grounds to sue because it is not a party to a tribal compact… Kalshi late on Friday submitted a brief arguing that the complaint should be dismissed, which would effectively throw out the case if supported by the judge, barring appeal.” Previous STTP coverage of the Wisconsin and other Kalshi-related lawsuits.
Polymarket receives the go-ahead from the CFTC as a B2B provider [The Closing Line]: “The Commodity Futures Trading Commission amended Polymarket’s ‘order of designation’ on Monday, allowing the prediction market to work with futures commission merchants (FCMs) to list contracts. Before, Polymarket could only offer direct access to users. (Polymarket’s US-facing app is currently in beta and live in the US prior to a full launch.)” The new designation allows Polymarket to consummate its deals with PrizePicks and others.
Underdog abandons Missouri sports betting [Fox2Now, Sports Betting Dime]: Underdog will not be part of Missouri’s forthcoming mobile sports betting launch, with the company (a newsletter sponsor) pulling its temporary license to focus on prediction markets. The decision was made with less than one week until the planned Missouri launch on December 1. A member of the Missouri Gaming Commission told Sports Betting Dime: “Underdog withdrew their application for a sports wagering license, but they maintain their fantasy sports contest operator license in good standing.”
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Views: NHL Commissioner Explains Prediction Market Deal
Straight to the Point suspects this story has far-reaching ramifications beyond the headline.
We’ve got NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman on Squawk Box, explaining the league’s deal with Kalshi, which he said was about giving the NHL some control over the emerging betting markets:
“We have aligned with the prediction market because we believe our fans need to understand that if they’re going to execute those contracts, it’s based on real data. But more importantly, it gives us control, because we have the ability to take down any contracts that we don’t think are appropriate. And that goes to the second part of your question.”
“Being aligned with either the sports betting entities or the prediction market entities gives you the ability to have more control and to observe more closely exactly what’s going on. So I think it’s more protective than anything else by having these alignments.”
As always, Dustin Gouker has the full transcript and some thoughts on Bettman’s comments at the Event Horizon:
News: Robinhood and Susquehanna Team Up to Offer PM
Then there’s the news that Robinhood and Susquehanna are kicking Kalshi to the curb (not literally), and launching their own prediction market after a joint purchase of MIAX Derivatives Exchange, a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX®)… announced it has entered into an agreement to sell 90% of the issued and outstanding equity in MIAX Derivatives Exchange (MIAXdx™), a wholly owned subsidiary of MIAX, to Robinhood Markets, Inc. (Robinhood) (NASDAQ: HOOD) in partnership with Susquehanna International Group… The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026 and is subject to customary closing conditions and certain filings with the CFTC.”
What does that mean for Kalshi? Who knows. But the tweets are coming fast and furious:
Stray Thoughts
Since 65% of my readership will be too busy eating turkey and watching football, tomorrow’s newsletter will be abbreviated.