All The Leaves Are Brown

Dreams of California sports betting have turned into nightmares, as efforts appear to be on hold until 2026, at the earliest.

Sep 19, 2023

NEWS: California’s next sports betting effort is likely several years away, according to CNIGA Chairman James Siva.
NEWS: Despite growing concerns about the pervasiveness of gambling advertisements, sports betting commercials increased 25% in 2023.
NEWS: Fanatics-PointsBet app downloads skyrocket over the first week of the NFL season.
NEWS: The latest on Florida sports betting is there is no news.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: A “meaningless” field goal and Betr CEO bullish on app download numbers.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Keep sounding the klaxon until someone answers.

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California Sports Betting Still Several Years Away

At the recent Indian Gaming Association mid-year conference at Foxwoods, California Nations Indian Gaming Association Chairman James Siva, who also serves as the Chair of the Morongo Band of Mission Indians, said he is doubtful a sports betting initiative will be filed for 2024.

“We haven’t heard any whispers of anything close to being filed,” Siva told Play USA’s Matthew Kredell. “So I think they were waiting for us, we were waiting for them, and now we’re just kind of going to let the deadline come and pass without any action.”

There is still an opportunity to file a petition, but the typical window is to file by August 22 to provide a six-month window to collect signatures.

Considering the resounding defeat of two competing sports betting initiatives in 2022, few are interested in trodding that costly and combative path again in 2024.

As Pechanga Chairman Marc Macarro told Kredell, “I wouldn’t want to come out in ’24 either. So it’s absolutely quiet, and nothing is on the horizon in California.”

That pushes sports betting discussions in California out to 2026, with no guarantee those conversations will produce results. California was one of the first states to explore online poker legalization, with efforts dating back to the aughts. The only lasting effect of a decade of debate was an increasingly fractured relationship between tribes and cardrooms and new animosity towards online gambling operators like PokerStars.

As Richard Schuetz wrote in the aptly titled Learning to Speak Californian (published Dec. 8, 2022, in GGB), “interpreting what you will soon be hearing from your brain trust of lobbyists and consultants in California—and what they are really thinking,” is of great importance.

Bottom line, yes, the tribes would love to move the ball forward on sports betting (and other gambling expansions), but it will be on their terms and on their schedule.

Sportsbooks Aren’t Reining In Ads

Last week, the newsletter covered a typo in a Forbes column that incorrectly reported Paw Patrol as one of the most popular TV shows for sports betting advertisements. It turned out the show was On Patrol: Live, a reality-based law enforcement program.

Crisis averted. However, the iSpot report had some other interesting findings, including a 25% year-over-year increase in sports betting ad impressions between January 1 and August 15.

According to iSpot, FanDuel was responsible for nearly half of all TV ad impressions.

In the same vein, according to Barrett Sports Media, FanDuel and DraftKings have increased their presence in the early days of the NFL season, with DraftKings leading the way with 23,592 spots on national radio and national television from the week between Sept. 4 and Sept. 10.

FanDuel aired 6,954 radio spots and is leveraging its FanDuel TV platform, per BSM. FanDuel “also secured a deal with Google to give new and existing customers a $100 discount towards YouTube NFL Sunday Ticket with any bet of $5 until Sept. 18.”

Even with the launches in Ohio (Jan. 2023) and Massachusetts (March 2023), the increase is quite interesting, considering several jurisdictions, along with the federal government, are looking to curtail sports betting advertisements.

Further, this is before Fanatics and ESPN. Both operators are expected to spend heavily, which will likely require existing operators to spend more to keep up.

It’s safe to say operators aren’t going to dial back their advertising, putting the ball back in the court of the states and the federal government.

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Fanatics Ranks Third in App Downloads

From Eilers & Krejcik’s Chris Krafcik (sign up for the EKG Line newsletter here), the Fanatics-PointsBet combo (Fanatics acquired PointsBet earlier this year) grabbed a combined 14% U.S. online sports betting app download share during the first week of the NFL season per Sensor Tower.

Fanatics had a respectable 9% share the week prior, which Krafcik noted, “At the very least, there seems to be a highish baseline level of curiosity about the BetFanatics brand/experience.”

Using the same Sensor Tower data, JMP Securities (via SportsHandle reporting) places the combined share from Fanatics-PointsBet at 12%.

Either number is well below FanDuel and DraftKings but ahead of BetMGM, Caesars, and Bet365.

There are several factors to consider with these numbers.

Fanatics is a new app and, therefore, not previously installed on most bettors’ devices.
Fanatics/PointsBet ran a significant promotion where anyone placing a $50 wager would be eligible for a free jersey up to $150.
Installs don’t equal account registration or a depositing customer.
Downloads are nationwide and could be coming from non-sports betting states or states where Fanatics is not live.

Florida Sports Betting in a Holding Pattern

All eyes were on Florida today, as there was a possibility the Seminole Tribe would relaunch its Hard Rock mobile sports betting app. This tweet pretty much sums up what has changed in Florida.

So, why no decision by the court? As Daniel Wallach noted, “One possible explanation for the delay in the D.C. Circuit’s ruling — under its rules, a motion to stay issuance of the mandate will not be granted until after the 10-day response period has passed.”

It looks like the tribe will let the process play out in the courts before relaunching.

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Around the Watercooler

Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.

Turns out that a meaningless Rams field goal as time expired wasn’t so meaningless.

Circling back to app downloads, Betr Founder and CEO Joey Levy pointed to the company’s performance against fantasy and sports betting peers.

Stray Thoughts

“Good advice is always certain to be ignored, but that's no reason not to give it.” ~ Agatha Christie