And Then There Were Three
Ohio is the latest state to send a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi for offering sports markets, as momentum builds against prediction markets entry into sports.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Kalshi receives another cease-and-desist letter, this time from Ohio.
ROUNDUP: Nebraska, Mississippi, and Hawaii sports betting updates.
NEWS: Everything you need to know about Alberta’s online gambling bill.
BEYOND the HEADLINE: Sizing up the small, but well-heeled Alberta market.
WAY BEYOND the HEADLINE: Play Alberta prepares for competition.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Get better the same way you got sick.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Risk and avoiding harm.
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The Lede: Ohio Regulators Send C&D to Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com
In Yesterday’s newsletter, I brought you up to speed on the brewing fight over prediction markets, where Kalshi announced it is suing Nevada and New Jersey after it received cease-and-desist letters from regulators in both states. It can now add a third state to the list, as the Ohio Casino Control Commission announced it had also sent Kalsh (as well as Robinhood and Crypto.com) a cease-and-desist letter.
The OCCC has given the three companies until Monday, April 14, 2025, to comply.
“The Ohio Casino Control Commission (OCCC) today issued cease and desist notices to Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, three companies offering event contracts on sporting events to Ohioans,” the OCCC press release states. “The Commission determined the event contracts offered by the companies on sporting events meet the definition of sports gaming under the law, which requires licensure to be legally offered in Ohio.”
The C&D distinguishes traditional event contracts, which it notes the CFTC has long regulated, and Kalshi’s recently launched sports contracts.
“Purchasing a contract based on which team a person thinks will win a sporting event is no different than placing a bet through a traditional sportsbook,” OCCC Executive Director Matthew Schuler said in the release.
Actually, Schuler did highlight one difference:
“The only difference is that these event contracts do not have the consumer protections required under Ohio law and are accessible to Ohioans under 21 years of age. The Commission must take action to fulfill its statutory responsibilities and ensure the integrity of sports gaming in Ohio.”
The Ohio action is the first time Crypto.com has appeared. The chances it complies are pretty slim, considering it ignored a January request from the CFTC to suspend its sports markets while it conducts a review.
Nevada’s C&D was exclusive to Kalshi. That case has ground to a halt as Judge Jennifer Dorsey has recused herself (h/t Daniel Wallach).
New Jersey sent a C&D to Kalshi and Robinhood (the former has chosen to sue, and the latter has ceased offering college betting markets in Garden State). At the Camden courthouse, a hearing is scheduled for Wednesday, April 2, at 2:30 pm, before Judge Edward S. Kiel.
As Daniel Wallach noted on LinkedIn, the rushed hearing (the DGE and Kalshi had extended the deadline to April 7) and limiting New Jersey to a letter-brief response could indicate that Judge Kiel isn’t sold on Kalshi’s arguments:
“If it seems somewhat disproportionate that New Jersey gets only 1 day (and a mere letter-brief at that) to respond to Kalshi’s 26-page motion (which probably took several days to prepare), that should give you an early window into what the judge may think of the merits of Kalshi’s case.”
STTP NOTE: The following is a late add to the conversation from Andrew Kim, an appellate litigator at Goodwin Law, who posted on X:
“I imagine Judge Kiel will want to decide at least the PI aspect of the motion on a complete record, with full briefing by DGE. (In addition to merits, DGE may want to raise ripeness issues.) PI denial would be immediately appealable, a chance to get CA3 to weigh in early.”
“If Kalshi follows the NJ/NV playbook in OH, note that you now have three circuits where you might have quick appeals arising in the PI context (CA3, CA6, CA9). Get at least one of them to buy the preemption argument, and suddenly you have a circuit split...”
“It's an imperfect path to a nationwide answer on prediction markets -- emergency docket notwithstanding, SCOTUS doesn't like taking up major federal ?s in an interlocutory posture. But there's a reason Kalshi hired Neal Katyal.”
Roundup: Nebraska, Mississippi, and Hawaii Sports Betting Updates
Nebraska sports betting bill advances to floor: LR20CA, sponsored by State Sen. Eliot Bostar, has passed the General Affairs Committee, and is likely to be heard by the Nebraska Legislature. The bill would change the state constitution to allow authorized gaming operators at licensed racetracks in the state to offer online sports betting. The bill would need 30 of the 49 Nebraska Senators (a unicameral legislative body) to vote in favor of the measure. It would then need to pass a voter referendum.
Hawaii sports betting bill’s fate decided this week: It might be time to take Hawaii’s sports betting bill, HB 1308, seriously, as it has passed the House and is moving through the Senate. However, its most formidable competition is yet to come: An April 2nd hearing in the Senate Ways and Means Committee. The Ways and Means Committee killed the Senate’s sports betting bill earlier this year.
Mississippi sweeps ban-OSB authorization bill dies in conference committee: As reported by Geoff Zochodne, the Mississippi bill to prohibit sweepstakes gaming that was amended by the House to include the legalization of mobile sports betting in the state died in conference committee yesterday.
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News: A Quick Guide to Alberta’s Online Gambling Bill
Regulated online gambling in Alberta has been a matter of when, not if, and we are now getting closer to having an answer to that question.
As reported last week, the province officially began the process following the introduction of Bill 48, the iGaming Alberta Act, by Dale Nally, the Minister of Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction. The legislation will draw heavily from Ontario’s law regarding licensing, taxation, responsible gambling, and advertising guardrails.
The bill provides the framework (drawing heavily from Ontario, which regulated online gambling in 2022) for how Alberta will authorize and regulate online casinos and sports betting beyond PlayAlberta, the only licensed entity offered by the Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis (AGLC).
The legislation would establish the Alberta iGaming Corporation “to oversee the operation of a private regulated market.” The regulatory duty would fall on the existing Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis (AGLC).
According to a press release from the Alberta government, the goal is to move current gamblers to regulated sites: "Currently, unregulated online gambling is widely available across the province. Albertans can sign up and place a bet in minutes with providers that have limited or no player protection or social responsibility measures in place."
Dale Nally, Minister of Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction, was quoted in the release, saying:
“Our goal is not to create new gamblers, but to make existing online gambling safer. As the gaming industry continues to evolve globally and in Alberta, it is important that we modernize Alberta’s approach to gaming to protect the health and safety of Albertans, particularly our youth. The legislation we are introducing, if approved, would take the first steps towards this.”
Beyond the Headline: The Alberta Opportunity
Despite a population on par with Oregon or Kentucky (around 4.4 million residents), operators are talking up the market (h/t Legal Sports Report).
Penn CEO Jay Snowden believes Alberta will be a top market for the company, given its success in Ontario with theScore:
“We believe the strength in Canada will only grow once we launch in Alberta… given the affinity for and loyalty to theScore brand across the country.”
“I think Canada is actually a good market for us in the sense that there's a ‘no inducement’ policy there. So you really are competing based on your brand, your products, and the experience. We like that. It's performed very well against all of the same operators that have maybe a larger share here in the US, and we would expect that dynamic to be the case in Alberta as well.”
FURTHER READING: STTP recently examined Penn’s divergent online gambling results in Canada (theScore) and the US (ESPN Bet).
Rush Street Interactive CEO Richard Schwartz pointed out the strong economics in the province during the company’s Q2 2024 earnings call:
“According to the Canadian Gaming Association, [Alberta] has among the highest per-capita spending on gaming in the country. This is a market that has great attributes, much like we've seen in other markets in North America.”
Northstar Gaming executives have pegged the Alberta market as a C$1 billion opportunity (which aligns with most other estimates, including from the JMP Securities team). In its investor deck, Northstar highlighted Alberta’s demographics, including the youngest adult population in Canada (39 years) and the highest per-capita GDP at C$100,000, some 50% higher than the Canadian average.
Of course, the dearth of online gambling expansion in North America in 2024 and 2025 is another reason Alberta is receiving so much interest.
Way Beyond the Headline: Play Alberta Hits Upgrade Button
As reported by Gaming News Canada, within 24 hours, PlayAlberta is ramping up its offerings, as it counts down the days until the end of its monopoly status:
“A slate of new updates have recently hit Play Alberta. It begins front and centre with the Play Alberta masthead. The province’s only legal, regulated iGaming platform is getting an updated logo and colour scheme, better reflecting an identity that represents Alberta.
“In addition to the new look, players can find a refreshed app that reflects more verticals that they care about, such as casino games, live dealer, instant games and lottery, plus a convenient new sportsbook.”
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
An excellent explanation of the path out of problem gambling was put forth on a recent episode of the Joe Rogan Experience, where Rogan said (of his pool hall days), “You have to get better the same way you got sick.” This means that if you lost ten games in a row, getting back to even can’t happen in one game. We’re not upping the stakes; you have to get better the same way you got sick.
Rogan’s prescription offers a straightforward view of someone caught in a cycle of problem gambling, where small losses pile up, stakes increase, and the hole is dug deeper. The gambler gets “sick” through consistent, repeated choices, not a single catastrophic event.
Problem gamblers might fantasize about a single big win to erase their losses, which is what Jamie Salsburg calls the gambler’s mindset. Even if they do get even after a big score, the cycle repeats.
“Getting better the same way you got sick” means reversing the process step-by-step: breaking the routine, rebuilding discipline, and accepting that progress is slow and steady. It’s about small, consistent wins, rather than banking on a dramatic turnaround. For someone stuck in that cycle, the idea can be both sobering and empowering: you dug this hole one bet at a time, and you’ll climb out one choice at a time.
The conversation begins at around the 52:00 minute mark.
Stray Thoughts
When discussing self-protection in martial arts classes, I make the point that the goal isn’t to win but to avoid harm. Fights (agreed upon violence) and self-defense encounters (where only one side wants to fight) are two very different things.
The best way to avoid harm is to not be there in the first place. As self-defense guru Rory Miller put it, “It’s better to avoid than to run; better to run than to de-escalate; better to de-escalate than to fight; better to fight than to die.”
Kalshi appears willing to skip the first three suggestions and go right to the fight. It may win, but that doesn’t mean it will avoid harm.
“He that takes unnecessary risks, plays with the cat and expects not to be scratched.” ~ Benjamin Franklin
“A fool risks his house to test the wind’s temper.” ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson
“Many rush headlong into dangers they might have foreseen and avoided, not from courage, but from a rashness that mistakes folly for valor; and thus they pay dear for a lesson that prudence might have spared them.” ~ Samuel Johnson
“You don’t tug on Superman’s cape, you don’t spit into the wind…” ~ Jim Croce
“You’re gonna need a bigger boat.” ~ Martin Brody, Jaws