Be Water, My Friend
New Hampshire's online casino bill, whose sponsor is a member of the NCLGS model legislation committee, took a buffet approach ; take what you want, leave the rest.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: New Hampshire iCasino bill uses some NCLGS recommendations.
LEGAL and REGULATORY ROUNDUP: DFS bills in IL and MD; CT airline betting bill; MS sweepstakes bill; MN sports betting effort emerges.
NEWS: Alabama leadership wants more support before introducing a gambling expansion bill.
VIEWS: An unsolvable puzzle: Does online gambling harm land-based revenues?
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: A new Florida fight over gambling.
STRAY THOUGHTS: The root of the problem.
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The Lede: New Hampshire’s iCasino Bill Vis-a-Vis NCLGS Model Legislation
New Hampshire State Sen. Tim Lang is back with another online casino bill, SB 168. Lang has been a longstanding proponent of legalizing online casinos, having sponsored the state’s sports betting bill that became law and a previous iCasino bill that passed the Senate in 2023 that ultimately failed in the House.
Interestingly, Lang, a member of the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) model legislation committee, didn’t put forth the NCLGS model legislation (which is still in draft form) whole cloth. Still, he did use some of the policy recommendations.
NCLGS leadership would say this is precisely how states should view the model legislation. Be Bruce Lee, take what works for your state, and disregard the rest. As NCLGS President Shawn Fluharty told me in a soon-to-be-released podcast, “Good policy doesn’t equal good politics.” And good politics is very localized.
Let’s look at where Lang did and didn’t use the NCLGS model legislation.
Market Access:
The bill requires at least three and no more than six platforms tethered to land-based gaming licensees. This aligns with the NCLGS recommendation to limit licenses and use RFPs.
Taxes:
45% tax rate, far above NCLGS's recommended rate of 15%-25%
Responsible Gaming Policies:
Prohibits the use of credit cards, as suggested in NCLGS model legislation (recall Lang said a bill without a credit card ban had zero chance of passing).
The bill is 18+; NCLGS recommends 21+ (a separate NH bill seeks to raise the sports betting age to 21)
Sweepstakes:
There is no mention of sweepstakes casinos, which NCLGS recommends prohibiting.
Of note, Massachusetts State Rep. David Muradian (also a member of the NCLGS model legislation committee) has introduced an online casino bill, but the text has not been released.
Legal and Regulatory Roundup: So Many Bills!
Maryland and Illinois introduce legislation to legalize against-the-house DFS: (h/t Daniel Wallach) In Illinois, State Sen. Lakesia Collins introduced SB 1224, which would legalize DFS contests, including “against-the-house” pick-em-style contests. In Maryland, SB 470 and HB 484 would change the definition of fantasy sports competition to include contests in which "a single participant competes against a statistical measurement established by the fantasy competition operator."
Connecticut bill would allow in-flight sports betting: Connecticut State Rep. Christopher Rosario introduced legislation, HB 6051, which would “authorize and regulate in-flight sports wagering on scheduled flights originating or terminating in this state.” Considering the previously announced deal between DraftKings and Delta, the bill comes at an interesting time. Whether this would be legal under federal law is a significant sticking point, with most experts believing it would violate federal law — attorney Daniel Wallach takes a narrower view of what the federal prohibition on “gambling devices” means.
Mississippi bill would ban online sweepstakes casinos: SB 2510, introduced by State Sen. Joey Fillingane, would prohibit sweepstakes online gambling sites in the state. Per Vixio (h/t Daniel Wallach), Each violation would be a felony, subject to a $100K fine, up to 10 years in prison, + forfeiture of assets.
Minnesota’s annual online sports betting bill has been filed: Minnesota State Sen. Jeremy Miller has filed a bill to legalize sports betting in the state. Per a press release: “The Minnesota Sports Betting Act 3.0 builds on the bipartisan cooperation and momentum from the last session.” Under the bill, the state’s 11 tribes are eligible for mobile and retail licenses; the tax rate is set at 20%, with distribution to build support: 50% for tax relief on charitable gambling, 25% to bring major sporting events to Minnesota, 20% to enhance horse racing in the state, 2.5% for mental health and problem gambling support, and 2.5% for grants to support youth sports.
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News: Alabama Gambling Expansion Is Short on Votes
Alabama’s attempt to authorize a lottery and casinos fell one vote shy in 2024. With such a narrow margin of defeat, one would expect gambling expansions to be a high priority in 2025, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Per 1819 News:
“According to State Sen. Sam Givhan (R-Huntsville), gambling won't get brought to the House floor unless there is a spare vote, which the North Alabama Republican said was not there. He noted it would be hard to keep all the yes votes while swaying some of the previous no votes.”
“The bottom line is they would have to run the table," he added. "They would have to keep all the, yes folks, they have not to lose any, can't afford to lose any, and then they've got to pick up the people that have voted yes before, but voted no last time. They've got to run the table.”
Givhan also noted that leadership seems skeptical and doesn’t want to be in a position where it once again pushes for a bill that fails.
According to Givhan, “Soon-to-be Pro-Tem Gudger has come out and said [in Givhan’s interpretation] is there's going to have to be at least a vote to spare before he's going to bring it up on the floor because he doesn't want to go through what we went through last year.”
That isn’t slowing down lobbying efforts on either side. As 1819 News reports, several groups, including the Sports Betting Alliance, are running ads in the state.
Views: Both Sides of Cannibalization Debate Have a Point
In a column at CasinoReports.com, Chris Altruda is the latest person to try to solve the unsolvable question of whether online gambling cannibalizes land-based revenue thought experiment — something I’ve attempted many times.
Like all the rest before him, and despite some terrific analysis that is worth reading in full) Altruda discovered that numbers can say whatever you want them to say.
There are simply too many variables to consider. Anyone telling you they have the answer is almost certainly 1) telling you what you want to hear or 2) filtering data to fit their narrative.
As I wrote in another column on this topic:
“The cannibalization debate isn’t as cut-and-dry as either side makes it out to be. As Stephen Stills sang, “Nobody’s right if everybody’s wrong.”
How confusing is the date? Deutsche Bank’s Carlo Santarelli recently noted that it’s misleading to say, “The domestic, regional gaming environment is often discussed as a flat to a slightly positive growth market, as measured by gross gaming revenue.”
According to Santerelli (as reported by CDC Gaming Reports), the general analysis doesn’t consider new competition, legislative action, and “incremental supply.”
To try to solve this, the DB team looked at regional casinos to find the casino equivalent of an uncontacted tribe:
Casinos need to predate 2013 and from states that release detailed revenue reports
Minimal impact from new casinos (in-state or across the border)
No significant expansions or changes to gaming laws.
DB had 80 hits, with Iowa (16 casinos) and Louisiana (14 casinos) the state markets that most fit the bill.
The above explains the complexity of the problem, but more pertinent to my readers, the DB team concluded there is cannibalization from iGaming.
“With 11 iGaming-enabled states showing a 9.7% casino revenue decline across the past 10 years,” per CDC Gaming Reports. “iGaming was seen to have specifically impacted the Michigan, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia brick-and-mortar markets for the worse. Once Ohio (no iGaming) and the three internet-casino states were left out, brick-and-mortar casinos rebounded by 4.5%.”
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
An interesting gambling-related fight is playing out in Florida.
More from Daniel Wallch in this X thread:
Stray Thoughts
I don’t know if I’ve ever agreed with a statement more than this one from X:
