Close But No Cigar
Was Minnesota really on the precipice of legalizing sports betting? Will a budget shortfall put online casino legalization on the table in Illinois in 2025?
The Bulletin Board
NEWS: Minnesota sports betting wasn’t as close to passing as some have claimed.
LOOSE ENDS: Las Vegas Sands’ efforts to bring resort casinos to New York and Texas; NJ DGE approves CarJitsu; Reads of the week.
VIEWS: The next time Illinois needs money, will it turn to online casinos?
BEYOND the HEADLINE: Measure allowing in-person betting on in-state Illinois colleges will sunset on July 1.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: That’s not why I’m here.
STRAY THOUGHTS: RG tools and catastrophe insurance.
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Minnesota Sports Betting: Still More Work to Do
As I’ve been saying, Minnesota wasn’t as close to passing a sports betting bill as some would have you believe.
As the Star-Tribune reports:
“A small bipartisan crew of senators tucked puffy packets stuffed with amendments in their desks, ready to filibuster if a bill to legalize sports betting came up for a late-hour vote.
“Sen. Erin Maye Quade… warned her DFL colleague, Sen. Matt Klein of Mendota Heights, that if he brought up a legalization bill, she and others were prepared to drag out the debate for hours — until adjournment if necessary, potentially blocking passage of other bills.”
“There was definitely a sense before the session of inevitability of sports betting legalization. I don’t believe that’s true anymore,” Maye Quade said. “We were able to highlight that there were so many different kinds of people opposed to sports betting for so many different reasons.”
That doesn’t bode well for Minnesota sports betting, as Maye Quade is intimating that its chances declined during the 2024 legislative session.
As I said in my Minnesota roundup, the narrative that Minnesota just needed a little more time doesn’t hold water:
“Knowing there was no time to pass a compromise bill, it’s likely some of the support was tepid… I would highlight that the final compromise is significantly different from the numerous other compromise efforts in 2024, which makes me more skeptical that the deal was a whisker away from passing and just needed slightly more time.”
The Star-Tribune’s reporting backs that up:
“The resolve of this coalition of progressives and at least one social conservative contradicts the post-session narrative that a sports betting legalization bill had been agreed upon and was ready to pass until the Senate ran up against the required midnight adjournment.”
Loose Ends: Las Vegas Sands Is Eyeing Texas and New York; CarJitsu Approved in NJ; Reads of the Week
LVS’s New York casino back in play: Las Vegas Sands’ proposed New York casino could receive a second lease on life today. The Nassau County Planning Commission will hold a public hearing at 10 AM to “discuss transferring the Coliseum lease to Las Vegas Sands, signaling a restart of the county approval process that a state Supreme Court justice ordered last year.” As previously reported, Hofstra University is none too pleased with the idea, and “Supreme Court Judge Sarika Kapoor invalidated the 99-year lease agreement LVS signed with Nassau County, derailing the company’s proposed $4 billion casino project at the Nassau Coliseum.”
Texas casinos a long-term play for Las Vegas Sands: Mavericks owner and LVS President and CFO Patrick Dumont is calling Texas casinos a long-term commitment. “We’re patient. We think long-term. We’re not people who think in the short term,” Dumont said. He went on to say that the purchase of the Dallas Mavericks wasn’t casino-related (call me a skeptic), “we’re ground-up developers in scale… Now, as part of that, we need casino gaming because of the scale of our investments.”
New Jersey approves betting on CarJitsu: Pro League Network’s viral hit, CarJitsu, has been approved by the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement for betting. Several other PLN properties, including the World Putting League (mini golf) and SlapFIGHT Championship (slap fighting), have been approved in multiple states.
What I’m Reading: Recent stories worth your time.
Behind The Scenes At A Live-Dealer Online Casino Studio ~ Casino Reports
Unpacking the cannibalization riddle ~ SBC Americas
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The Case For and Against Online Casinos in Illinois
The spin cycle went to work before the ink was even dry on the Illinois sports betting tax increase (with the state shifting from a flat 15% tax to a graduated rate between 20% and 40%):
‘Well, actually… This might move Illinois closer to online casino legalization.’
Yes, the sports betting tax increase has removed one of Illinois’ options to raise revenue — as I mentioned yesterday, regarding New York:
“… MTA funding provides a glimpse into how online casinos will eventually be legalized, and it starts and ends with money. When one fiscal problem is solved, another quickly rears its head, and there are only so many fingers you can use to plug a hole until you get to online gambling.”
That said, Illinois has many options. There is the still-in-progress Chicago casino, calls to regulate VGTs in Chicago, closed racetracks waiting for a second life, and more on the gambling front alone.
Regardless of how desperate the budget situation becomes, there is an extremely powerful and influential group vehemently standing in the way of online casino legalization: The VGT industry.
The VGT operators generate massive amounts of tax revenue for the state, and in addition to their own lobbyists, they can quickly mobilize small businesses. Proof in point: a scheduled hearing earlier this year was canceled because the entire speaker list was local business owners who oppose online gambling.
Several people I’ve spoken with have all said the same thing, “online gambling is a no-go without the VGT industry’s approval.”
Beyond the Headline: Illinois Sunsets College Betting Rule
While the focus has been on its tax rate increase, Illinois sportsbooks will also lose a popular market, as the current rule allowing, as Phil West of Play Illinois neatly summarized it, “wagers placed in person at a retail sports betting location before an event where the wager was decided solely by that event’s outcome” will sunset on July 1.
Because of the in-person requirement, this won’t have much of an impact on the bottom lines of sportsbooks, but as I’ve noted in the past, there is a chipping away at markets occurring that has a death by a 1,000-cuts feels to it.
Betting on in-state colleges was initially prohibited by law in Illinois. However, a 2021 rule change allowed in-person pre-game wagers on the outcome of a game.
The legislature failed to reauthorize the policy during this legislative session. The same measure was unanimously extended in 2023, but a bill to permanently lift the ban failed to pass.
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
It’s only tangentially gambling-related, but this is an interesting tweet:
This goes to something I talk about a lot: Motivations.
When I ran a health club, there were a lot of people who fit the description of the original tweet. One middle-aged gentleman who was at the gym every day busting his ass for years always looked the same. One of my coworkers once said to him, “Al, you’re in here every day busting your ass, and you never change.” His response has stuck with me all these years, “I’m only here, so I can eat whatever I want.”
Similarly, a frequent player in a home poker game who always made terrible calls was being constructively criticized by another player, and again, the response says it all: “I’m not here to make the right play; I’m here for different reasons than you.” The reasons were never given, but the message was loud and clear.
Or, as Joey Swoll put it:
Stray Thoughts
For most people, responsible gambling tools are like catastrophe insurance. Some people need it; most don’t.
Very few people are required to have flood insurance (around 15% of homes). Yes, there will be some unlucky homeowners whose homes get flooded, but it’s a tradeoff most homeowners not living in a floodplain are willing to make (save $50 or $100 per month).
For those that do live in a floodplain, flood insurance is critical.
The same is true of responsible gambling tools. Most people have no use for it.
If flood insurance were extremely cheap (even in low-risk areas, the cost can be close to $100/month), many more homeowners would purchase it just in case.
The same is true of RG tools. There’s no incentive for the average bettor to use them. And I’m really not sure how we can change that — I have some ideas if anyone wants to discuss them.
What I do know is this: the current efforts, which amount to a door-to-door salesman trying to sell flood insurance, isn’t it.