Early Sports Betting Numbers From The Show-Me State
Missouri's first month of legal sports betting produced some big handle and revenue numbers, but promotional spend was also very high.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: A look at the first month of Missouri sports betting.
ROUNDUP: A look at the stories you may have missed.
NEWS: New York AG sends prediction market consumer and industry advisories.
BEYOND the HEADLINE: New York regulators will review prop bets.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: The New (Ab)Normal.
STRAY THOUGHTS: The Catch-22 prediction markets find themselves in.
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The Lede: What the Early MO Sports Betting Numbers Tell Us
Missouri’s newly launched sports betting industry put up some impressive numbers in its first month, with more than $500 million in handle and $100 million in gross gaming revenue.
Straight to the Point recently recorded a podcast with Citizens Jordan Bender (look for that episode in the next week or two) who noted that even though it’s a new market, Missourians have been betting in neighboring states for several years, and that likely contributed to the impressive numbers, along with massive amounts of promotional spend.
As Earnings+More noted, when you account for promotional funds that $103 million in revenue disappears (and then some):
“The market overall saw GGR come in at $103m on handle of $538m, implying a hold of 19%. Promos for the whole market totaled $125m, meaning the market produced a negative NGR of $21.6m, with DraftKings at -$16.9m and FanDuel at -$7.2m.”
One of the more interesting data points was the bronze medalist: Bet365.
It’s a sure thing that DraftKings and FanDuel will be #1 and #2 in any market they are both in, but the #3 spot was captured by Bet365, and it really wasn’t all that close.
FanDuel Handle/GGR share = 39% | 44%
DraftKings Handle/GGR Share = 36% | 31%
Bet365 Handle/GGR Share = 11% | 18%
BetMGM Handle/GGR Share = 5% | 2%
Fanatics Handle/GGR Share = 4% | 2%
Caesars Handle/GGR Share = 3% | 2%
Bet365 was the third biggest spender in terms of promotional dollars (responsible for 12% of all promotional spend in Missouri), while BetMGM, Fanatics, and Caesars all came in at 2% of the market’s total promotional spending — DraftKings and FanDuel accounted for 82% of the promotional money.
According to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (a newsletter sponsor), Bet365 had the second best promo to GGR ratio in the market, only bettered by theScore.
As EKG said in its Missouri Flash Report, “This outcome was directionally consistent with our prior view (outlined in the most recent Sports Betting Market Monitor) that bet365 was likely to outperform historical benchmarks given a combination of elevated welcome offers (e.g., $365 sign-up bonus) and continued improvements in product quality and depth.”
Roundup: So Much News; So Little Newsletter Space
*There are about 12,000 prediction market updates, from new entrants to lawsuit updates, that STTP will condense into a single entry for Monday.
Accel CEO to move to board position in August [CDC Gaming Reports]: “Accel Entertainment announced Monday that founder and CEO Andy Rubenstein has been named chairman of the company’s Board of Directors, while Accel’s President of U.S. Gaming Mark Phelan has been appointed chief operating officer. Phelan will succeed Rubenstein as both CEO and president, effective August 7. Phelan is also expected to join the Accel Board at that time.” STTP Thoughts: Accel is a political heavyweight in Illinois gaming, and has fought vociferously against online casino expansion (Accel is a member of the National Association Against iGaming), so it will be interesting to see if the leadership change has an impact on its online strategy (unlikely, but you never know).
Alabama gambling legalization bill introduced [SB 257]: As STTP reported yesterday, Alabama will consider legalizing casinos, a lottery, and sports betting in 2026. State Sen. Merika Coleman officially introduced SB 257 on February 3. The bill has been referred to the Senate Tourism Committee. The bill would authorize lottery, land-based casinos, and in-person and online sports betting. Coleman, a Democrat in heavily red state (the Republican majority in the Alabama legislature is 27-8 in the Senate and 76-29 in the House) was elected to the state Senate in 2022 after serving for 20 years in the House.
Indiana sweepstakes prohibition bill passes House [Sweepsy]: An Indiana bill that would prohibit sweepstakes casinos has passed the Indiana House. “HB 1052 cleared its originating chamber to start the week by an 87-11 vote with two [abstentions]. It will now head over to the Senate, where it will await its committee assignment.” As STTP previously reported, a parallel effort to legalize and regulate sweepstakes has been discussed, but it has not gained any traction.
Better Gambling Forum opens consultation following publication of UN report [Press Release]: “The Better Gambling Forum (BGF) has launched an open consultation to refine and strengthen the evolving Responsible Gambling Triple-P (RG3P) Framework. The goal is to continue to build on findings and priority questions identified in the BGF’s United Nations report. Per the press release, “The feedback will directly inform the next iteration of the framework, which will be discussed and further advanced through regional consultations and international forums throughout 2026, including at dedicated sessions at the upcoming G7 and G20 meetings.”
CFTC officially withdraws proposed “Events Contracts” rulemaking [CFTC]: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today announced it has withdrawn the notice of proposed rulemaking titled “Event Contracts” that published June 10, 2024. [See CFTC Press Release No. 8907-24] The CFTC does not intend to issue final rules with respect to the proposal. Additionally, Commission staff has withdrawn CFTC Staff Letter 25-36, a Staff Advisory on Certain Contract Markets, issued Sept. 30, 2025 [See CFTC Press Release No. 9137-25].
Quote of the Week contender: “These preliminary victories by Kalshi have all but ensured the elasticity of sports prediction markets at least through the end of calendar 2027 until the issue is decided by the courts or Congress.” ~ Attorney Daniel Wallach on the IGA New Normal webinar series.
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News: New York AG Warns Against Prediction Markets
New York Attorney General Letitia James issued a consumer and an industry alert on prediction markets ahead of the Super Bowl.
In the consumer alert, James called prediction markets “online platforms offering bets masquerading as ‘event contracts’ on the outcomes of political elections, sporting events, or other future events.” James called the products unregulated (STTP would highlight they are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission), lacking the consumer protections found in the licensed market.
“These platforms operate without consumer protection and without the supervision of the New York Gaming Commission, putting New Yorkers at significant financial risk,” James said.
In the industry alert, James cautioned “so-called ‘prediction markets’ that unlicensed entities offering sports-related ‘event contracts’ over purported derivatives exchanges constitutes gambling in violation of New York law. This includes, but is not limited to, conducting, advertising, and promoting unlicensed sports wagering in New York… The failure to abide by New York State law exposes such actors to both civil and criminal liability.”
Beyond the Headline: NYSGC Is Reviewing All Prop Bets
In addition to New York Attorney General Letitia James’s consumer and industry advisory, we have the New York State Gaming Commission taking on sports betting. The NYSGC sent a letter to sports leagues noting that it will be reviewing all prop bets:
“The recent allegations, investigations and prosecutions that have come to light have caused the Commission to re-examine all individual player proposition wagers that are game specific, as well as single game specific multi-leg individual player parlays. If our review requires the outright elimination of certain bets, the Gaming Commission will use its regulatory authority to prohibit them.”
The letter also hints at the leagues’ ability, under New York law, to get out ahead of a regulatory review:
“New York State law[3] and our regulations[4] specifically provide sports leagues the ability to seek restriction, limitation or exclusion of certain wagers. Although we have yet to receive any such request from any league, we strongly encourage – and expect – each of your leagues to avail yourselves of this tool, should you have a reasonable belief that such a restriction, exclusion, or limitation would improve wagering integrity.”
Views: Is the NFL Softening on Prediction Markets?
At this week’s Super Bowl, NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Miller was asked about prediction markets, telling Front Office Sports, prediction markets are “innovative,” and that “there’s no question we’re going to be spending a lot of time talking about this in the coming months and maybe even years.”
Miller told FOS that if you look at legal sports betting, the NFL was last in, “We’re interested, of course... but we’re also going to be cautious.”
Miller likened the current situation to the post-PASPA era, saying the NFL took its time in its approach to legal sports betting to protect the integrity of the game, “The same thing will have to happen if the Kalshis and Polymarkets end up continuing in this trajectory of becoming a regulated business.
Recall the NFL’s previous comments about prediction markets:
“[The NFL] likes to be first in the market in a lot of things, but in a lot of things, we’re willing to say, ‘We’re going to let things play out. We’re going to decide, is this something we want to do?’” ~ NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell on prediction markets
And in written testimony submitted to the House Committee on Agriculture, for its “stakeholder perspectives” session in December 2025, Jeff Miller, the NFL’s executive vice president for communications, public affairs & policy, player health & safety wrote:
“As Commissioner Goodell recently discussed at a public forum, the league has no plans to participate in prediction markets due to several outstanding legal, regulatory, and commercial concerns on how these markets operate and the possible impact on the integrity of sporting events.
“We are particularly troubled that several sports-related futures contracts have been launched nationwide, including in jurisdictions where sports betting has not been legalized. These contracts fall outside the purview of state regulatory authorities and the safeguards they impose upon the industry, including information-sharing requirements, integrity monitoring, prohibitions on easily manipulated markets, official league data requirements, know-your-customer protocols, and problem gambling resources. For example, just this past weekend, one prediction market exchange was accepting bets on whether or not “concussion protocol,” “late hit,” or “roughing the passer” would be mentioned during the broadcast. Congress and the CFTC should prohibit these and other types of objectionable bets among the many consumer and integrity protective measures needed before sports-related events contracts are legalized.
“The amounts potentially wagered through unregulated gaming contracts markets could significantly exceed those in regulated sports betting markets, creating substantially greater risks to contest integrity… In each of these state-regulated markets, regulators and state legislators closely monitor betting activity and, with input from professional sports leagues, can determine which bets and wager levels are acceptable. Those guardrails do not exist in prediction markets.”
But as STTP noted in December, the NFL is not saying it is opposed to prediction markets, rather it wants the same protocols and policies that exist in state-level sports betting put in place:
“We would welcome the opportunity to work with the House Agriculture Committee and the CFTC to understand whether the game integrity safeguards that exist in regulated sports betting markets can be effectively implemented on self-regulated exchanges under the regulatory purview of the CFTC. Until such time that professional sports leagues and fans can be certain that effective game integrity and consumer protection measures can be enforced, sports-related events contracts should not be approved by the CFTC, and Congress should consider clarifying the definition of “gaming” contracts in the prohibited categories of the Commodity Exchange Act.”
Bottom line: The NFL is content to wait and see how prediction markets fare in courts.
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
This discussion with Victor Rocha and Daniel Wallach from yesterday’s Indian Gaming Association (IGA) New Normal webinar series is worth a listen. As Daniel Wallach said on X, “ Victor Rocha and I go full blast for the full hour.”
Stray Thoughts
Some food for thought: Prediction markets need sports in the short-term; they don’t need sports in the long-term. But without sports, prediction markets may never reach the point where they don’t need sports.
This reminds me of something I’ve experienced in my non-gambling-industry life, as we’ve been approached several times by people looking to rent part of our karate school to offer everything from personal training to yoga to sound bowl healings. People want a professional space to build their client list, but they need a client list to afford a professional space.