“Past a certain level, the real skill in both BJJ and gambling isn’t just knowing the moves — it’s making the right decision faster than your opponent under extreme pressure and uncertainty.”

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Regular readers already know I use many martial arts analogies when discussing the gambling industry, but when I stumbled upon The Lost Creonte’s Substack, I knew the connection was much deeper, as The Lost Creonte was discussing many of the ideas I have discussed in gambling industry terms (from specialization to the Lindy Effect) solely for Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. So, while this episode rarely mentions gambling, anyone in the industry would be wise to give it a listen as he uses BJJ as a lens for broader philosophical ideas.

In this episode of the Straight to the Point Talking Shop Podcast, I chatted with The Lost Creonte, the pseudonymous author of the popular Substack newsletter on Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.

The Lost Creonte BJJ

Allow me to reintroduce myself.

“When you’re in the middle of it, it’s hard to appreciate the era you’re training in. In BJJ, people like to say they’re sharks and the ground is their ocean. But the truth is, we’re closer to goldfish. We know we’re swimming, yet we’re oblivious to the changing ocean around us…

5 months ago · 30 likes · 12 comments · The Lost Creonte BJJ

The Lost Creonte shares his 12-year journey from a complete beginner who walked into a gym looking for boxing, got “smushed” on the mats, and became hooked — a tale as old as time.

During the conversation I brought up the Japanese idea of Shu-ha-ri (copy → deviate → transcend), which led to some interesting thoughts on principles, decision-making under pressure, deliberate practice, and the tension between sport rule sets and real-world self-defense applications.

The standout theme, and the reason this episode resonates far beyond martial arts, is that both domains (BJJ and gambling) are defined by extreme complexity and outcomes are rarely caused by any single factor.

Whether it’s the Atlantic City casino market or a BJJ match, there are dozens of interacting elements that defy simple post-hoc explanations.

Listeners interested in martial arts philosophy, coaching, or cross-industry pattern recognition will find this episode especially rewarding. It’s a thoughtful reminder that the deepest lessons in any complex, high-variance pursuit often come from looking outside the immediate domain. As I said at one point, you can often swap “BJJ” for “gambling” (or vice versa) and everything will still make sense.

The Lost Creonte BJJ

How the Lindy Effect changed the way I think about BJJ

To some extent, we’re all hardwired to be drawn to things that are shiny and new - especially in combat sports. This ‘Recency bias’ is the human brain’s tendency to assign higher importance to the most recent information or experiences, often at the expense of long-term historical information…

4 months ago · 20 likes · 5 comments · The Lost Creonte BJJ

Episode 87: What Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Can…