The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Making sense of Sportradar and Genius Sports’ stock declines.
BEYOND the HEADLINE: Are prediction markets a golden opportunity?
ROUNDUP: A look at the stories you may have missed.
NEWS: Colorado bill adds consumer protections to sports betting.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: The prediction market fight in one word.
STRAY THOUGHTS: That article again.
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The Lede: Why are Data Company Stocks Tanking?
Genius Sports and Sportradar stock have been taking a beating:
Genius Sports’ decline can be traced to its acquisition of Legend, while Sportradar’s decline was more gentle, capped off by the recent accusations of black market involvement.
I would caution that while the big events are easy to point at, the underlying symptoms are more wide-ranging, as evidenced in Sportradar’s earnings call this week.
As reported by Gaming&Co, “Sportradar CEO Carsten Koerl insisted the group does ‘not work with black market operators’ as he discussed Q1 results with analysts yesterday and responded to a question on its revenue mix from grey markets.”
Koerl responded to the accusations from Callisto Research and Muddy Waters Research by making a distinction between black and gray markets:
“For the grey market, we have a solid compliance structure in place, and we only work with licensed operators. The measurements which we apply here is a risk assessment, and irrespective of the licensing and jurisdictions, we support only business(es) which has(ve) a license,” said Koerl.
The black market question is somewhat distracting from Sportradar’s results. As Citizens notes, “Sportradar generated €347M in revenue and €66M of EBITDA in 1Q26, missing consensus expectations across the board for only the second time as a public company.” That said, Sportradar reaffirmed its 2026 guidance.
“Management understandably appears frustrated with the stock’s performance, which has been impacted by overhangs related to prediction markets and short reports, allegations the company has denied, Citizens said in a note. “Based on the math around potential “grey market” revenue, we believe the market may be over-penalizing the shares.”
More on Sportradar’s earnings call from Earnings+More
STTP Thoughts: As everyone chases the next big thing (more on that in the Beyond the Headline section), there are several sectors of the industry that are having a come-to-Jesus moment. And while it’s convenient to point to a single moment, it’s not just one bad deal or one report. It’s a sector-wide recalibration happening in real time.
In times of plenty these systemic issues are masked, but in times of uncertainty they bubble to the surface. We’ve seen this happen among affiliates, operators, and now in the data layer.
These are high-quality businesses with real moats, but the era of growth for the sake of growth (or to be #1) may be coming to an end. Companies with a tight strategy like Rush Street Interactive deliver consistent results, and are the new darlings, while the movers and shakers are getting punished… until the market believes the story again.
Beyond the Headline: The Prediction Market Opportunity
Sportradar CEO Carsten Koerl dangled a carrot, noting the company is in talks with prediction markets.
“During its earnings presentation, Sportradar outlined that its services could be useful to a range of different types of businesses involved in prediction markets. It said that futures commission merchants — the role of Robinhood and FanDuel Predicts — could use its customer acquisition tools and visualizations. Market makers who trade on exchanges — such as Susquehanna or Jump Trading — could use its live data feeds and odds. Designated contract markets — the role of Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket US — could use all of those services.
“Koerl said the business was in talks with “all the players” in the space, and that an announcement could come soon.”
As Citizens said:
“We believe prediction market revenue could serve as a structural tailwind in the medium term, with minimal incremental cost. Additionally, the rollout of PlayRadar across multiple large jurisdictions throughout the year, along with announced cost restructuring initiatives, should help cushion the outlook if fundamentals weaken further. Combined with ongoing developments in IMG, the World Cup tailwind, and a large addressable market for prediction markets, these factors could support further upside revisions to estimates.”
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Roundup: So Much News; So Little Newsletter Space
Robinhood plans to launch its prediction market in Q2 [Event Horizon]: “Robinhood is planning to launch Rothera — its prediction market platform in a joint venture with Susquehanna — in Q2. That’s what we had heard before, but it’s obviously now more concrete. CEO Vlad Tenev: ‘As we continue shipping great products for our customers, in Q1, we saw record levels across prediction markets, futures, index options, shorting and margin. So our active traders were very active. … Now looking at prediction markets, specifically, we’re really spending time getting ready for the Q2 launch of our JV with Susquehanna.’”
A partial explanation for why there are so many prediction market comments [Dan Bernstein, X]: As I noted yesterday, “The public comment period for proposed rules around prediction markets is set to close on April 30, and let’s just say there are a lot of words to pore over, with nearly 1,200 comments submitted.”
Hard Rock Digital inks deal with MLB Players [Press Release]: MLB Players has signed a “new long-term licensing agreement with Hard Rock Digital that designates Hard Rock Bet as an officially licensed sportsbook of MLB Players, Inc. The integration brings MLB player name, image, and likeness directly into the core of the betting experience across Hard Rock Bet’s digital and retail platforms throughout North America.”
New York starts 10-year study of gambling [Spectrum News]: “A new 10-year effort launched Wednesday by New York state will survey residents on the effects of gambling and assess if additional services are needed to help problem gamblers. The state Office of Addiction Services and Supports (OASAS) is administering the survey, which will reach New Yorkers age 18 and older across the state with the goal of guiding gambling-related services, Gov. Kathy Hochul said.”
News: Colorado Senate Amends Sports Betting Bill
The Colorado Senate radically changed a bill that would overhaul its sports betting industry in several key ways, and opinions are divided, with some calling it a big step forward in consumer protections while others feel the bill was gutted.
SB 131 sought to:
Limits customers to 5 deposits in 24-hours
Prohibit operators from limiting bettors based on performance
Prohibit push notifications
Prohibit prop betting
Prohibit credit card deposits
Restrict advertisements for a sports betting operation from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. or during a live broadcast of an athletic competition
The prop betting ban was pulled several days ago, and on Tuesday, the Senate axed the restriction on operators limiting bettors, upped the number of deposits on a 24-hour period to six, and removed the blanket advertising ban.
That leaves the prohibitions on push notifications as the central piece of the bill.
Yes, there is also a prohibition on credit card deposits, but that is something many operators are voluntarily doing, and I would argue that limiting customers to six deposits in a 24-hour period isn’t exactly a toothy policy.
The Senate passed the amended bill, sending it to the House for consideration.
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Every now and then I have to pinch myself to remember that for all the nuanced arguments and wordplay, the common sense approach to this is intent:
Stray Thoughts
As I said in one of my two columns on McKay Coppins’ Atlantic article:
