Everything Is Sports Betting
Kalshi is adding point spreads, totals, and prop bets to its offerings, and will be in direct competition with traditional sportsbooks during the upcoming NFL season.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Kalshi expands sports markets to include spreads, totals, and props.
ROUNDUP: MD-Kalshi case update; ROGA + BetBlocker; Sweepstakes get tribal support in CA.
NEWS: AGA report looks into the illegal market.
VIEWS: Update on the 1-800-GAMBLER fiasco lawsuit.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Prediction market talk at Bet Bash.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Betting scandals are becoming a very big problem.
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The Lede: Kalshi Adds Spreads, Totals, and Props
Kalshi bills itself as a prediction market, but it’s looking more and more like a sportsbook every day.
According to two terrific prediction-market-focused substacks that you should be subscribed to (Event Horizon and Fifty Cent Dollars), Kalshi self-certified markets for point spreads, totals, and touchdown props for the upcoming NFL and NCAA season with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday.
As Fifty Cent Dollars notes, this sets the stage for a head-to-head product showdown between Kalshi and traditional sportsbooks:
“Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction exchange, has submitted product certifications to list player props (think “rebounds,” “receptions,” “passing yards”) and point spreads - stepping well beyond its current moneylines and futures. If these contracts clear the CFTC’s final regulatory hurdle in the next 24 hours, exchange pricing will go head‑to‑head with the fattest‑margin products in online sportsbooks.”
“Kalshi isn’t just adding SKUs. It’s pointing an exchange model straight at the profit engine of U.S. sportsbooks and potentially upending the world order of sports.
“The next 24 hours are crucial. If the CFTC lets these contracts through, it will mark a day in the history of risk-taking.”
And as Dustin Gouker wrote at Event Horizon, Kalshi’s foray into single-game prop betting “likely means more prop betting options,” and screams that parlays and SGPs aren’t too far off.
That makes it hard to call Kalshi anything other than a sportsbook — as Gouker dutifully reports every week, the bulk of Kalshi’s business is on sports markets, with sports accounting for two-thirds to three-quarters of trading volume every week — a number that’s likely to go up when the NFL season starts.
Roundup: MD-Kalshi Case; ROGA + BetBlocker; Sweepstakes Get Tribal Support in CA
Maryland will not take action until the case with Kalshi is decided [InGame]: Despite an unfavorable ruling from Judge Adam B. Abelson of the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland (coverage from STTP here), Kalshi’s markets will remain available in Maryland. As reported by InGame, Kalshi has withdrawn “its motion for the new injunction, after reaching an agreement with the state that would make such an injunction unnecessary.” Maryland decided to pause its enforcement of state gambling laws until the court rules on its case against Kalshi, which is unlikely to occur until late October at the earliest.
ROGA partners with BetBlocker [Press Release]: “The Responsible Online Gaming Association (ROGA), an independent association representing 90% of the legal US sports betting industry by handle, and BetBlocker, today announced a partnership to promote the adoption of BetBlocker’s free blocking software across the United States. BetBlocker software allows players to voluntarily restrict themselves from over 118,400 gambling operator websites and 1,500 gambling apps, including both regulated and unregulated sites.” STTP Thoughts: I’m a little confused by the words “independent” and “representing 90% of the legal US sports betting industry by handle.”
California tribe breaks ranks and supports sweepstakes [Sweepsy]: In California, the Kletsel Economic Development Authority (KEDA) has urged the Senate Appropriations Committee to reject AB 831, a bill restricting casino-style online sweepstakes games. In an August 7 letter, KEDA argues the measure ignores smaller, remote tribes' needs for digital revenue amid high poverty and food insecurity. This is the first tribe to break from tribal consensus on sweepstakes — recall some tribes have supported previous online gambling efforts that were opposed by the vast majority of California tribes.
VGW partners with California Tribe [Press Release]: And a little follow-up to the above post about tribal opposition to California’s sweepstakes bill, as VGW has announced an agreement with the Kletsel Dehe Wintun Nation of the Cortina Rancheria tribe (KEDA), “to operate free-to-play online social games platforms (including associated sweepstakes promotions) in California.” In a letter to the California Senate Appropriations Committee opposing AB 831, KEDA Chief Executive Officer Eric Wright said, “For tribes like ours—far from high‐traffic tourism corridors—geography has always limited traditional economic development. Large, well‐established gaming tribes already benefit from these geographic advantages and decades of success. It is self‐serving for them to advocate for policies that restrict emerging digital commerce opportunities for others, effectively holding smaller and less‐advantaged tribes hostage to their location.”
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News: AGA & TIG Report on Illegal & Unregulated Market
New research from the American Gaming Association (AGA) in conjunction with The Innovation Group (TIG) concludes that the US gamblers (regulated and unregulated) wager $673 billion annually — a significant increase from the AGA-TIG findings in 2022, which put the number at $500 billion.
“Drawing on a national survey of nearly 2,500 adults and publicly available market data, TIG estimates that Americans now wager more than $673 billion annually through unregulated channels,” TIG President and CEO Brian Wyman (STTP Podcast episode #41) said on LinkedIn. “This activity diverts an estimated $54 billion in potential annual revenue from the legal gaming industry and costs state governments over $15 billion in taxes each year.”
Wyman went on to say:
“What stands out most is the unregulated market’s resilience. Even as the legal market has expanded significantly since 2022, these operators have kept pace, holding on to roughly the same share of total play. This parallel market won’t disappear on its own, and its staying power shows that consumer habits and loyalties remain a challenge that the regulated industry must address head-on through collaboration across federal and state regulatory and law enforcement leaders.”
As I said in May:
“Despite the regulated market's growth, gray and black market sites continue to show no signs of slowing down, suggesting that legalization and regulation don’t overwhelmingly migrate bettors from illegal to legal channels; they do, but they also increase the pool of bettors, bringing in people who were uncomfortable betting through gray or black market operators.”
And in June, quoting Maryland Del. Kathy Szeliga:
"Despite legal options, many bettors continue using unregulated sites... Maryland State Del. Kathy Szeliga claims that legalizing iGaming expands the illegal marketplace, with pervasive ads for regulated gambling normalizing betting and enabling illegal operators to confuse consumers.”
“Additionally, journalist David Hill notes that while the repeal of PASPA initially hurt offshore sportsbooks in Costa Rica, players are returning due to restrictions in legal US markets, indicating that the black market persists despite legalization."
Views: Why Groups are Fighting Over the 1-800-GAMBLER Number
The saga of the 1-800-GAMBLER hotline is still unfolding.
“This could be the zaniest legal dispute I’ve had to cover, as two prominent responsible and problem gambling groups are embroiled in a legal fight that could result in the end of the national 1-800-GAMBLER helpline number. The fight is over a $150,000 annual licensing fee (a paltry number in the gambling industry).
“The dispute between the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey (CCGNJ) and the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) stems from a 2022 contract allowing NCPG to use the helpline number nationwide for a $150,000 annual fee.”
But now we have some important updates, courtesy of SBC Americas:
“The National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) has filed for arbitration in the dispute with the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey (CCGNJ) over the national 1-800-GAMBLER problem gambling hotline.”
“NCPG exercised its contractual right to file for a restraining order to prevent the hotline from being shut down until the dispute is resolved, and was subsequently granted a temporary restraining order against the CCGNJ by a New Jersey court that keeps it up and running until Aug. 26.”
In a follow-up post, SBC Americas has finally gotten an answer to the question, why [bold mine]:
“Since that agreement expired, a new license agreement was offered to NCPG by CCGNJ. NCPG declined the offer extended to them by CCGNJ and, as such, NCPG was informed that they are no longer permitted to operate and manage the brand,” CCGNJ Executive Director Luis Del Orbe told SBC Americas.
“The 1-800-GAMBLER helpline number sits at the core of CCGNJ’s purpose of existence,” he added. “The 1-800-GAMBLER helpline is not going to go away, ever.” He confirmed to SBC Americas that CCGNJ intends to keep running 1-800-GAMBLER as a national helpline for the foreseeable future without the NCPG’s involvement.
Del Orbe stressed that maintaining its integrity and avoiding the hotline being weaponized is crucial. “The CCGNJ shall not permit that this institution be used to punish or retaliate against anyone, much less the problem gambler.”
For an even deeper dive into the lawsuit, I spoke with SBC Americas’ Jessica Welman in a recent podcast episode:
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Professional bettor Rufus Peabody got his “ass out of bed” for the prediction markets panel at Bet Bash (featuring Joe Brennan Jr., Sporttrade’s Alex Kane, and Novig’s Jacob Fortinsky), and tweeted about it on X. Here are a couple highlights, but I recommend reading through the entire thread:
Stray Thoughts
I’m not spilling any tea when I say that betting scandals aren’t going away.
Yesterday’s newsletter had several stories in the roundup section on betting scandals that I feel need to be connected and further fleshed out, as the slow trickle of admissions, allegations, and rumors — Jontay Porter, Shohei Ohtani, Malik Beasley, Terry Rozier, Tucupita Marcano, Emmanuel Clase, Luis Ortiz, Kayshon Boutte, Hysier Miller, John Mateer, and Shane Pinto, to name some of the bigger names — look a lot worse when they are packaged together.
The accumulation of betting scandals paints a troubling picture of systemic vulnerabilities in the era of legalized sports gambling. When viewed individually, they might seem like isolated incidents, and kudos for the legal market for uncovering them — a common refrain from the legal industry.
But critics argue that the rapid expansion of legal betting since the 2018 Supreme Court decision has outpaced safeguards, eroded game integrity, fueled addiction, and exposed athletes to harassment and coercion.
As I’ve noted in the newsletter many times, legalization plays a critical role in uncovering these scandals, but added attention is the last thing the industry wants: “The more attention sports betting receives... the more likely Congress will jump into the conversation," urging leagues' support for restrictions to avert federal intervention.”
The industry can try to paint it any way they want, but even if it’s true, this "slow trickle" of revelations is fueling calls for crackdowns and undermining public trust in sports.
States, which have reaped billions in tax revenue from betting, are facing mounting pressure to tighten regulations to protect consumers and rein in the industry’s excesses.
The interconnected nature of these cases, including federal probes linking college and pro incidents, heightens the risk of broader state-level bans and could spur action at the federal level, accelerating discussions in Congress for nationwide oversight, like the SAFE Bet Act.
Critically, the NBA and other leagues are actively supporting these restrictions, recognizing that while they've profited from betting partnerships, unchecked prop bets threaten to alienate parts of their fanbase.
As noted on Monday, the NBA and NBPA recently endorsed limits on player props to reduce harassment and manipulation risks. MLB and others have echoed this, urging tighter frameworks to sustain revenues without jeopardizing games.
And as David Purdum has noted:
Purdum and I discussed this very thing during his podcast appearance in March 2025:
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