The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: The gambling world is full of people who won’t wait in line.
ROUNDUP: A look at the stories you may have missed.
NEWS: Texas Lt. Gov. makes prediction markets a policy priority.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: NFL wants certain markets to be off-limits.
STRAY THOUGHTS: What everyone gets wrong about the average bettor.
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The Lede: Gambling Needs Clear Definitions & Boundaries
At our martial arts school we set clear boundaries for our students, especially in the kids’ classes. Seemingly inconsequential rules and standards are extremely important. In our kids’ classes, uniforms are non-negotiable, right down to the t-shirt under the gi needing to be tucked in at all times. It’s not about military-like discipline and conformity, it’s because if you give kids an inch, they will keep taking more and more inches, and before you know it, they’ve taken a foot, a yard, and sometimes a mile.
Allowing black sweat pants turns into ‘close-enough’ dark gray sweatpants two weeks later, which other students or their parents see and turn into any sweatpants. Then the dress code is so relaxed you start getting shorts.
Letting students sit down while you’re demoing the lesson leads to sitting down in between turns, and then wandering off to sit down because they’re “tired” or to get a drink of water whenever they feel like it.
We have a “don’t go beyond the drill without permission” rule because if you let people add or alter a drill the next thing you know they’re full on resisting, throwing random elbows, and doing unexpected sweeps and throws with escalating intensity — a recipe for injury. There’s a time and place for free sparring, but it’s not during a drill.
In 2024 we were told that Kalshi was in court fighting to offer election markets. That wasn’t the entire story, because as we soon learned, election markets were the launchpad to sports contracts.
When it became clear that major markets like Texas and California would remain closed, FanDuel, DraftKings, and other licensed sportsbooks, quickly pivoted to prediction markets. The “right way” to go about things went out the window as soon as an opportunity presented itself.
As I’ve been saying for quite a while, the industry is populated with a lot of people that don’t like to wait in line.
If you think sports aren’t the launchpad to casino games, let me introduce you to Hard Rock’s online casino games in Florida and DraftKings’ new Replay offering in Oregon:
Hard Rock’s online casino games in Florida are “powered by Past Motor Racing.” They look and play like online slots, but they’re legally framed as sports betting, with outcomes based on historical NASCAR/motor-racing results rather than random-number generators, much like the HHR loophole. Previous STTP coverage and thoughts on these games can be found here.
DraftKings’ new Replay offering in Oregon lets users bet pitch-by-pitch from a library of randomly selected and anonymized historical MLB plate appearances. Just like HHR and Hard Rock’s historical motor racing games, you get slot-machine-like games under sports betting laws.
An excellent writeup on the offering from Oregon resident Dustin Gouker can be found here.
And Dan Bernstein spoke with the Oregon Lottery (which defended its decision) here.
Basically, without clear boundaries, the moment you allow an inch, you’ve set yourself up to defend a mile. Why wait for states to legalize online casinos, when we can use historical sporting events to act as the random number generator and call it sports betting?
As Sportico’s Eben Novy-Williams put it:
And if you think DraftKings Replay or motor racing slots and table games aren’t in development and ready to be deployed the moment the legality of sports contracts is settled you haven’t been paying attention.
Roundup: So Much News; So Little Newsletter Space
US attorney’s office SDNY investigating Polymarket [CNN]: “The chiefs of the securities and commodities fraud unit of the US attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York recently met with representatives of Polymarket, one of the leading prediction market platforms, to discuss how existing laws could be applied to potential misconduct in the fast-growing industry, according to people familiar with the matter.” Per CNN, the investigation is looking into whether certain markets violate insider trading and other laws.
Jordan Maynard reappointed as MGC Chair [Bookies.com]: “Massachusetts Gaming Commission chair Jordan Maynard has been appointed to a second five-year term as commissioner and re-designated as chair. The joint appointment comes from Gov. Maura Healey, Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell and Treasurer Deborah Goldberg. Maynard, first appointed to the MGC in 2022, has served as chair since October 2024.” Maynard took over, first as interim chair, in October 2024, following the retirement of Cathy Judd-Stein.
Student-athletes express concern over sports betting [NCAA]: “Division I men’s and women’s basketball student-athletes report that sports betting harms the reputation of their sport, believe sports betting is leading to harmful scrutiny of college athletes and report being targeted for betting losses, according to the NCAA’s latest Student-Athlete Needs, Aspirations and Perspectives survey. Student-athletes think the impact has extended to their day-to-day experiences with fans, the survey of Division I college athletes found. Nearly 60% of the college basketball players surveyed indicated that sports betting has contributed to unfair public scrutiny of athletes, and 74% of women’s basketball athletes and 65% of men’s basketball athletes somewhat to strongly agreed that betting-related abuse weakens trust between fans and athletes.”
Hochul supports several responsible gambling enhancements [CBS]: NY Gov. Kathy Hochul outlined several new sports betting policies as part of her 2026 State of the State agenda. “Mobile sports wagering is everywhere, enticing everyone — including our youth — to place bets without fully considering the consequences. We need strong regulatory safeguards to prevent those under 21 from gambling, keep artificial intelligence from preying on gamblers, and require sports wagering operators take real action if one of their customers is showing signs of gambling harm,” Hochul said. “I’m thankful to the Gaming Commission for putting forth comprehensive measures that achieve these goals and protect New Yorkers. As a reminder: Only legal, regulated gaming have such safeguards in place.”
Downtown Grand in receivership after defaulting on loan [Las Vegas Review-Journal]: “Downtown Grand hotel-casino has been operating under a court-appointed receiver since early January, and the property is now being prepared for sale after its owners defaulted on a $90 million construction loan, according to Clark County District Court records.” A March 25 filing “shows the receivership is well underway and that the receiver, Paul Huygens of Henderson-based Province LLC, has already begun a formal effort to sell the hotel-casino at the corner of North 3rd Street and Ogden Avenue in downtown Las Vegas.”
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News: Prediction Markets on Texas LT. Gov.’s Radar
You can add Texas to the list of states taking aim at prediction markets.
Per the Texas Tribune:
“Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick on Friday instructed state senators to study a broad range of policy issues ahead of next year’s legislative session, including prediction markets… Patrick’s latest list of interim charges corresponded with many of the priorities House Speaker Dustin Burrows laid out Thursday.
“Prediction market gambling also landed in Patrick’s sights, as markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded in the state through a federal loophole even while sports betting and casinos are otherwise outlawed in Texas. Patrick instructed the state affairs committee to ‘study the sudden inundation of prediction market gambling” and “make recommendations to ensure the integrity of Texas elections and Texas sports.’”
All that said, state-level prohibition efforts are meaningless, as the legal cases work their way up to the Supreme Court to determine who has oversight, the federal government or states.
STTP Thoughts: It will be fascinating to watch how the new champions of prediction markets — many of them in President Trump’s orbit — try to keep deep-red states like Texas happy as control of Congress is up for grabs in a few months. How that tension gets resolved will tell us a lot about how far, and how fast, prediction markets can spread before the SCOTUS weighs in.
Views: Meta/YouTube Lawsuit a Wakeup Call
A jury in Los Angeles recently delivered a landmark verdict, finding Meta and YouTube liable for $6 million in punitive and compensatory damages over claims that the platforms’ addictive design features — endless scrolling, algorithmic personalization, and dopamine-triggering notifications — directly contributed to serious mental health harms for users. Yes, it was only $6 million, but there are something like 2,000 other cases in the legal system making the same claim.
Of course, the case can be appealed.
The gambling industry, and prediction markets, should be taking notice, because what, at least this court, is now calling out as predatory in social media is being airdropped right into the gambling sphere.
As Michael McCann wrote in Sportico:
“The case invites questions about the addictive qualities of sports betting and sports prediction apps and their exposure to similar legal theories. Sports betting and sports prediction apps might be more vulnerable to arguments they cause users to become addicted and suffer various harms.”
And soon after the Meta-YouTube ruling, we have a Massachusetts lawsuit filed on the same grounds.
“Hours after a Los Angeles jury found that Meta and YouTube harmed a young user by utilizing addictive features, attorneys involved in the case filed suit against DraftKings and FanDuel and accused the sportsbooks of using technology and methods similar to those of social media companies to keep customers betting and causing some of them to develop gambling addictions.”
And recall the lawsuit Straight to the Point reported on last week that was filed in Pennsylvania by Public Health Advocacy Institute (PHAI) against DraftKings, FanDuel, Genius Sports, and the NFL — PHAI is involved in separate class action lawsuits in Massachusetts and Pennsylvania and is the driving force behind the SAFE Bet Act in Congress:
“The complaint alleges that DraftKings and FanDuel lured the two plaintiffs ‘“into making more and more microbets on the DraftKings and FanDuel platforms. In addition to constant “push” notifications that promoted microbets, DraftKings and FanDuel also assigned each man a personal “VIP Host” who communicated with plaintiffs personally on their mobile phones and enticed them with promotional offers, trips to sporting events and other gifts. The personal contact and enticements continued even after at least one of the plaintiffs indicated that they no longer wanted to participate in online betting on the DraftKings platform.”
“The complaint details how the NFL not only licenses player and game data to Genius Sports, but was also the largest shareholder in the company from 2021 to 2025, and remains the second-largest shareholder to this day. Genius Sports supplies online sportsbooks, including DraftKings and FanDuel, with officially licensed data and statistics from professional sports leagues needed to support online sports gambling, and is the sole supplier of the NFL’s live data and statistics. Thus, Genius Sports and the NFL are among the main players profiting from increased microbetting during sporting events.”
As PHAI’s Mark Gottlieb told McCann:
“Much like the social media companies on trial in Los Angeles, the leading sports gambling platforms all use—and compete on the basis of—advanced algorithms created by tracking every click and demographic detail of each of their users to maximize time on device and engagement with their products.
STTP Thoughts: This could be the proverbial nothingburger, particularly if it’s overturned on appeal, but public perception of sports betting is trending in the wrong direction. Basically, dismiss at your own peril.
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
As reported by ESPN’s David Purdum:
The full story and Selig interview can be found at ESPN.com.
As for the commentary, Better Markets Amanda Fischer noted in an X thread, the NFL’s ask raises a few questions for the CFTC:
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig responded to the NFL’s ask in an interview with David Purdum, saying:
“If a league is telling us that a contract is going to be readily susceptible to manipulation and an exchange is still trying to certify that, of course we'll evaluate the risks there. But the leagues are very well positioned to make those calls and so we are going to afford a lot of deference to the leagues on these types of issues.”
Selig also tweeted about the NFL’s request, too:
As I say about a lot of things in the space, it all comes down to where reasonable people think the lines should be drawn:
Stray Thoughts
I agree with pretty much all of this, and have been making many of these points (from bettors choosing sites based on colors, sounds or whether it’s ‘lucky’ to how much the typical person actually bets, and how most bettors are more or less worthless to an operator).
