I Agree, For The Most Part
Where I agree and disagree with Eilers & Krejcik Gaming's 2026 predictions on the real-money online gambling sector.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: My thoughts on (some of) EKG’s 2026 predictions.
ROUNDUP: A look at the stories you may have missed.
NEWS: Maine casino sues state over recently enacted online casino law.
NEWS: Some interesting tidbits from the world of online poker.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Takeaways from ICE.
STRAY THOUGHTS: I haven’t heard this song in years.
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The Lede: Sifting Through EKG’s 2026 Predictions
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming’s 2026 US Real Money Online Gambling Outlook has several predictions that I agree with and several I disagree with — to varying extents.
Before I dig into seven of these predictions, I would be remiss not to note that EKG often makes very bold predictions.
EKG Says: “Core OSB and iCasino markets shift into an execution- and margin-optimization phase as expansion-driven growth slows.”
STTP Agrees: I’ve been saying this publicly and privately for more than a year. With legalization (sports betting and online casino) at a crawl, growth (in the eyes of investors) isn’t going to come from new launches, operators are going to have to prove they can be competitive and achieve profitability.
EKG Says: “Federal risk in 2026: two issues to watch closely. First, changes to the federal gambling loss deduction regime… Second, the rapid expansion of sports trading via prediction markets increases the likelihood that Congress revisits the permissibility of sports PMs and, under certain conditions, the regulatory treatment of sports betting itself.”
STTP Agrees: STTP has been ringing the federal alarm klaxon longer than anyone, and as I’ve been saying, and EKG noted, there is a convergence of events (betting scandals, wall-to-wall marketing, widespread access and increasing normalization, the rise of prediction markets) that is making Congressional action more and more likely.
Put another way, Congress is being pushed and pulled to restore the gambling loss deduction cap, potentially deal with prediction markets encroaching on sports betting, and rein in sports betting’s excesses (marketing and RG/PG). As EKG put it, this poses “nontrivial tail risk of spillover scrutiny or indirect constraints on regulated OSB.”
EKG Says: “In a maturing product landscape, excellence delivers less upside while mediocrity carries greater downside… Operators with middling or subpar products face increasingly outsized penalties in engagement, retention, and relevance as user expectations continue to rise.”
STTP Somewhat Agrees: While the product floor has definitely risen, there is still a noticeable difference between the cream of the crop and everyone else in terms of offering the entire package. As STTP has said before, the companies that can do the little things, and all the things will thrive.
EKG Says: “Licensure revocation represents an extreme but non-zero risk. Aggressive or perceived overreaching prediction market involvement, especially in sports, could trigger state regulatory responses that extend beyond incremental penalties to include suspension or revocation of online gambling licensure at scale. While unlikely in the near term, this scenario sits squarely within the class of edge cases that would materially reshape the structure of the U.S. online gambling industry, abruptly redistributing share and scale among remaining licensed operators, particularly in iCasino.”
STTP Disagrees: Just as prediction markets have found a workaround, states will start uncovering their own workarounds to take action against operators they feel are double-dipping, which could be everything from stiffer fines to tighter regulations.
EKG Says: “Trump preserves the sports prediction market status quo. President Trump vetoes or blocks legislation aimed at curbing sports prediction markets, leaving regulatory outcomes to the CFTC and the courts. With the CFTC historically reluctant to act decisively and legal challenges escalating, the ultimate resolution increasingly funnels toward the U.S. Supreme Court, prolonging uncertainty while encouraging continued capital inflow and product experimentation in the interim.”
STTP Somewhat Disagrees: As STTP has said, let’s see if the current administration’s attitudes toward prediction markets change if they “predict” a landslide victory in the midterms for Democrats. Recall, the administration has threatened a lawsuit against the New York Times over polling numbers.
EKG Says: “Genie-back-in-the-bottle momentum gains traction. As gambling and gambling-adjacent experiences expand across OSB, iCasino, DFS+, sweepstakes, prediction markets, and even short-duration financial trading products (e.g., zero-day-to-expiration options), the cumulative “gamblification” of everyday digital life triggers a broader societal and political reckoning with gambling itself.”
STTP 100% Agrees: I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago in a feature column titled The Gamblification of Everything: “One of the things I realized very early on was that getting people to gamble occasionally is pretty easy. Getting people to gamble regularly (even people who like to gamble) is very, very difficult… Here’s the thing, gamblers are fine with gambling invading every waking moment of their lives. The vast majority of people are not. They want whatever level of gambling they participate in separated from their day-to-day activities. And that’s where the pushback comes from (which seems to be growing day by day).”
The hangover is real and the pushback is coming.
EKG Says: “Another major U.S. sports league embraces sports prediction markets… in exchange for substantive concessions, including tighter control over eligible market types, deeper integrity and data integrations, and significant commercial commitments.”
And this week we have this, although I don’t think this is what EKG meant by a “major U.S. sports league.”:
As Marc Edleman, Professor of Law & Director of Sports Ethics at the Robert Zicklin Center for Corporate Integrity at the Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College, City University of New York put it on X: “My quick take: the leagues that are more desperate for cash flow are okaying this. NBA is typically the most innovative and entrepreneurial of the major sports leagues. But they aren’t desperate.”
STTP doesn’t have an opinion on this, but it would be yet another intriguing development if the NFL, MLB, or NBA entered such a deal.
Roundup: So Much News; So Little Newsletter Space
Virginia online casino bill advances out of committee [Ryan Butler, X]: A glimmer of hope has emerged in Virginia: “Virginia lawmakers advance the state's online casino gaming legalization bill out of its initial committee, a key first step to bringing legal iGaming to the state; bill had stalled last week, but was advanced after additional problem gambling protection provisions added.” STTP Thoughts: There is still stakeholder opposition and even with a live-dealer studio requirement, union support may be difficult. The devil will be in the details, as stakeholders will continue to jockey for their version of iCasino.
Delaware launches online lottery games [Press Release]: Scientific Games and the Delaware Lottery have introduced eInstant games linked to the state’s existing Delaware Lottery Players Club online loyalty program. Delaware Lottery Director Helene Keeley said, "iLottery was the next step to give Delaware players easy, convenient digital access to our entertaining games. Launching an integrated, state-of-the-art iLottery program as part of the Delaware Lottery Players Club offers our players the opportunity to experience the thrill of playing how they choose—at retail or online—so we can continue driving maximum transfers to the state's General Fund."
MN court sides with racetracks on electronic table games [Minnesota Lawyer]: “The Minnesota Supreme Court recently decided whether off-reservation electronic tables violate agreements granting Minnesota tribes exclusive rights to video games of chance. Running Aces Casino, Hotel & Racetrack introduced touchscreen-operated electronic tables, and the court upheld the Minnesota Racing Commission‘s consent, despite finding that a tribe had standing to challenge.” STTP Thoughts: Recall that this fight was part of the reason sports betting legalization talks broke down in Minnesota.
SEC charges Lottery.com with conducting a fraudulent scheme [Next.io]: “The SEC filed charges against Lottery.com – rebranded to SEGG Media Corporation last July – its ex-CEO Anthony DiMatteo and former executives Matthew Clemenson and Ryan Dickinson, as well as the CEO of the SPAC that brought the business public, Vadim Komissarov.” STTP previously reported on Lottery.com’s woes in 2023: “Let’s just say that the courier space is not known for exemplary behavior… Lottery.com has had its share of issues, including bad accounting and a subsequent shareholder class-action suit. The company was briefly delisted but has managed to avoid a permanent NASDAQ delisting.”
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News: Maine Casino Sues State Over Online Casino Law
Oxford Casino, operated by Churchill Downs in Oxford, Maine, has filed a lawsuit in Maine’s U.S. District Court claiming the recently enacted online casino law (Gov. Janet Mills let the bill pass into law without signing or vetoing it) creates a race-based monopoly and will cost the casino millions of dollars.
The lawsuit accuses the state of violating the Equal Protection Clauses of both the United States and Maine constitutions.
“Promoting iGaming through race-based preferences deals a gut-wrenching blow to Maine businesses like Oxford Casino that have heavily invested in the state and its people,” the lawsuit, which was filed Friday, reads, per the Portland Press-Herald.
As STTP previously reported, online casino opponents are also planning a ballot repeal effort.
And as I wrote earlier this month, Maine’s gambling industry has been full of controversy in recent years, which we can now add online casinos to the list.
“First there was the September 2024 vote of no-confidence in the executive director of the Maine Gambling Control Unit, Milton Champion… And then there was the fiasco that is retail sports betting in the state, which I covered back in September 2024… And now there are questions over withheld payments to tribal members from the Passamaquoddy Tribe’s sports betting partnership with DraftKings. According to local press, the partnership has generated over $100 million in gross revenue since 2024, with the tribal cut somewhere around $26 million. The problem is, tribal members haven’t seen any of the proceeds.”
News: Some Interesting Poker News and Good Reads
Kalshi is offering a WSOP Main Event attendance market [Poker Scout]: “Poker players who also trade predictions may be interested to note that Kalshi has a newly-listed market on whether the 2026 World Series of Poker main event will receive more than 10,000 entries. Liquidity is very low, with only $1,113 in trading so far.”
BetRivers Poker debuts Splash the Pot feature [Pokerfuse]: BetRivers Poker has added a new cash game feature, Splash the Pot, that randomly adds bonus money to pots before the flop. Per the press release: “At the start of randomly selected cash game hands, extra money falls from the sky onto the middle of the table. When a splash occurs, bonus chips are added directly to the pot before any betting begins.” The feature was first used on Run It Once Poker, which Rush Street Interactive purchased in 2022 and turned into BetRivers Poker last year.
Good Reads:
Nour Sever: The secret economy of online poker [Nour Sever, Poker.org]
Excerpt: “This article isn’t about morality, it’s about reality. The online poker world is built and protected around the only group the industry truly cares about: the losing player.”
The Poker Player’s Delusion [Phil Galfond, X Article]
Excerpt: “Most of you are delusional about your poker game. You have no idea where you stand. You have no idea what it takes to improve. And you pay for that ignorance every time you sit at the table.”
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Tales from ICE:
“After two days of investor meetings at ICE Barcelona, Jefferies Equity Research analyst James Wheatcroft returned with an armful of impressions… The foremost topic on Wheatcroft’s mind was the rise of prediction markets... Gaming companies were, Wheatcroft found, more and more viewing prediction markets as an opportunity rather than a menace.”
Brian Wyman, The Innovation Group
AI is quickly becoming an operating model, not a standalone feature.
“The most compelling use cases weren’t flashy. They were operational: improving reinvestment discipline, prioritizing host outreach, reducing fraud and promotional leakage, and accelerating test-and-learn cycles in marketing. The operators that win won’t be the ones “using AI” in a generic sense, but the ones that use it to protect margin and improve decision-making speed and accuracy.”
Prediction markets present a new “side door” into wagering, and the entire industry is tracking this closely.
“While still early in their evolution as a consumer product, prediction-style wagering is now being discussed openly as a real adjacent threat and/or opportunity… At a minimum, it adds a new competitor to the funnel and a new storyline that regulators will have to reconcile. As legal issues abound, especially in tribal country, this is one of the items I’ll be tracking most closely in 2026.”
“While suppliers’ stands once again outdid themselves for size and ‘epic’ themes, there was no denying that the mood, especially among UK executives, was apprehensive following the respective 90% and 67% tax hikes on online casino and sports betting.
Exit strategies: Many of them, especially small and midsize operators that make up around 30% of the UK market according to the analyst team at Jefferies, were in Barcelona to meet with potential investors or acquirers.
Illegal benefits all round: One of them reiterated a point that was made to this reporter during SBC Lisbon last September that UK affordability checks had already led to the loss of much of their VIP business to crypto operators. “It’s a trend that is very widespread across all European markets, so you can imagine the scale of the phenomenon.”
Stray Thoughts
I haven’t heard this song in years, but for some reason (without even hearing it) it’s been stuck in my head for days.