The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Two firms accuse Sportradar of offshore activity.
READS of the WEEK: A look at the articles Straight to the Point is reading.
QUICK HITTER: New Hampshire charity casinos are no small affair.
QUICK HITTER: Trump “was never much in favor of” prediction markets.
NEWSLETTER ROUNDUP: The best of the best in gambling newsletters.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Kalshi’s unforced error.
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The Lede: Sportradar Hit With Offshore Allegations
Sportradar took a beating this week, as separate reports from Muddy Waters and Callisto Research claim the data supplier giant is double-dipping in offshore markets.
As Compliance+More noted: “Muddy Waters claimed 20-40% of Sportradar’s revenue flows from clients operating illegally,” and “Callisto Research claimed that after reviewing source code across thousands of gambling sites, it identified more than 270 platforms using Sportradar products while operating without appropriate licenses in their target markets.”
Further, Muddy Waters claims it ran a sting operation at ICE Barcelona in February:
Sportradar responded with an official statement on its corporate website:
“Short reports issued today contain several factual inaccuracies about Sportradar, and we unequivocally challenge these assertions.
“These reports demonstrate a fundamental misunderstanding of our business and the industry and were authored by short sellers trying to erode shareholder value and profit from stock disruption.
“Sportradar works exclusively with licensed operators, follows strict global compliance, and due diligence standards, and we stand by our independently audited financial statements, risk disclosures, and information provided to investors and regulators.
“We conduct our business with the highest ethical standards consistent with Sportradar’s policies and applicable laws and regulations.”
Sportradar’s stock has plummeted over the last year, down nearly 50% over that time, and 60% from its high in September/October 2025 of $32.
Reads of the Week: Suggested Reading from STTP
Following the Money: Political Spending by FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics [Alex Weldon, Gaming America] STTP Note: It’s quite sad to see how much talent has moved to offshore affiliates after affiliates in the regulated market cut so many jobs.
Prediction Markets Are Booming — But The Tax Bill Could Be Brutal [Bill Speros, Bookies.com] STTP Note: I’ve mentioned this in the past, the IRS is not bound to the CFTC’s definition and can classify prediction markets as gambling income.
Pro poker player who’s won more than $48 million says new tax laws forced him into semi-retirement: ‘It’s really untenable’ [Ryan Ermey, CNBC]
Will Congress Act On Prediction Markets? Don’t Rule It Out [Jeff Edelstein, InGame] STTP Note: If you follow the newsletter you know I’ve been sounding this alarm longer than anyone.
OPINION: Kalshi is half right about prediction markets and gambling [Aaron Brown, Bloomberg]
The Sky Is (Not) Falling On Atlantic City [Jeff Edelstein, Casino Reports] STTP Note: I just returned from an Atlantic City trip and I have some thoughts here.
Quick Hitter: New Hampshire Casinos Keep Getting Bigger
New Hampshire casinos have grown from small hole-in-the-wall cardrooms to something much grander. The latest example is Delaware North filing plans to move its current property to a former Sheraton Hotel, and develop a two-story 92,860-square-foot gaming floor with a 1,700-space garage, 30,000 square-foot conference space, and more than 300 hotel rooms — The property would be the first New Hampshire charity casino to offer an on-site hotel.
“The owners of Nashua’s Gate City Casino completed a major renovation and expansion less than three years ago. Now, they’re proposing to relocate operations to an even bigger facility they want to develop close to the Massachusetts border,” the Banker & Tradesman reports.
As the Banker & Tradesman noted, “If approved, the development would become the latest in a rush by local casinos to expand.”
Here’s what New Hampshire’s charity casinos (35% of revenue goes to charity and 10% to the state) are turning into:
The 130,000-square-foot Nash which took over a vacant anchor space at the Pheasant Lane Mall, developers recently announced plans to redevelop the 19,000-square-foot casino in the Mall at Rockingham Park into the 160,000-square-foot Rockingham Grand Casino.
The Lupoli Companies’ Hampton Beach development will include a 52,000-square-foot charitable gaming casino and boutique hotel.
Seabrook’s The Brook casino has added a 300-seat events venue to the existing 90,000-square-foot charitable casino.
Manchester’s Revo Casino and Social House recently received zoning approval for an expanded 73,000-square-foot charitable gaming facility, including two restaurants and a function room near The Mall of New Hampshire.
Quick Hitter: President Trump Talks Prediction Markets
President Trump was asked about prediction markets, and let’s just say his remarks probably raised a few eyebrows in the prediction market space, as it was far less than the full-throated endorsement people expected:
“The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino. You look at what’s going on all over the world in Europe and every place they’re doing these betting things -- I was never much in favor of it. I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is. I’m not happy with any of that stuff. They have all these different sites. They have predictive markets. It’s a crazy world.”
“The theory is that no press is bad press, but in my experience, that ode to relevancy (attributed to P.T. Barnum) doesn’t apply to gambling. As ostentatious as casinos are, with few exceptions, they keep their heads below deck. They don’t get into public fights or seek attention for the sake of attention.
“What ends up happening is blowback. You can’t lose the mob, especially if you created it — The below echoes something I’ve been saying all along, whether it’s prediction markets or sports betting.”
Put another way, the President’s changing tune could be a signal that the temperature in the prediction market kitchen is becoming unbearable. I’ve said this several times in the newsletter and on podcasts, but it bears repeating: don’t assume the administration’s support is ironclad.
As Jon Aguiar put it on X:
This wasn’t that hard to see (but most everyone ignored it). These are my words of warning from an article in February 2025:
“The speculation (and let’s be honest, that’s all this is) that Trump is fawning over prediction markets for having him as the clear favorite in the 2024 election has the same hollow ring as the belief that, as a former casino developer and owner, he has a soft spot for the casino industry.
“If we look at the first Trump term, there was no shortage of similarly flattering comments about the people he appointed and organizations that supported him. In plenty of instances, there was a falling out, followed by a complete exile.
“In the same vein, a lot is being made about Donald Trump Jr.’s appointment as a special advisor to Kalshi. A conduit to the President is undoubtedly helpful, but let’s not get out over our skis here. There are plenty of worlds where this has the same impact as a celebrity endorser for a sportsbook or poker site.”
I raised the same concern when Andrew Kim came on the podcast in April 2025 to discuss prediction markets:
“I’ve always been [of the opinion] that maybe this isn’t as baked as people are making it out to be. I mean, obviously, there’s the Trump Jr. strategic advisor [position], but I know a lot of people who are strategic advisors in very powerful positions, and nothing really happens because of that.”
Newsletter Roundup: Best of the Week in Substack Land
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
A bit of an unforced error from Kalshi in response to New York Attorney General Letitia James pointing out the platform allows 18-21 year-olds to bet on sports:
This seems like a solid response, but when you peel back a couple of layers (as some X users did), you start to notice that this is a somewhat troubling number:
