Initiate Rant Mode

Kalshi is spending a lot of time trying to convince the world it's not what everyone thinks it is.

Today’s column will be a little more ranty and pointed than usual, because frankly, like Romeo caddying for Tin Cup, I’m growing increasingly fed up.

I’m not fed up with the existence of prediction markets, or even their entry into sports betting. I’m fed up with the double-speak and self-assured statements made because their financial future requires these statements to be true.

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Again, if the courts and the CFTC decide that prediction markets can offer sports contracts, I have no issue with it. But I do have a problem with Kalshi et al. pretending there is nothing to debate; hiding behind a recently created magical force field that deflects legitimate criticisms and questions. They think they’re better and smarter than everyone else, and don’t mind telling you so.

Let Sleeping Dogs Lie

If I had to hazard a guess, I would bet that no one at Kalshi is a Jim Croce fan. If someone were, I would have expected them to recite the chorus of You Don’t Mess Around With Jim, every time the company takes to social media to “dispute” the facts:

You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger
And you don't mess around with Jim

Kalshi is engaging in fights just to fight. It’s a high-risk, no-reward strategy. And it’s unclear at this time whether Kalshi will be Jim or Slim by the end of the song — a fun piece about reputation, fear, and the fact that there is always someone bigger and tougher. It’s also interesting to think about the bystanders who go from thinking Jim is unassailable to pinning invincibility on Slim… who will inevitably meet a similar fate. No one is untouchable, just ask Leroy Brown, who may be the better comparison to Kalshi.

As I’ve said to a few people privately, my advice to Kalshi would be to stop talking in the court of public opinion. Save your arguments for the courts of law — and let your high-priced legal team do the talking, because what is coming out of Kalshi isn’t landing, and if it has any impact on the cases (or future actions), it will be negative.

As Mike McDermott (Matt Damon) tells Worm (Edward Norton) in Rounders, “All I said is just keep your mouth shut for like five seconds.”

Here are a few examples (apologies in advance to Sara Slane, who is Kalshi’s public-facing comms person) where Kalshi is wading into unnecessary debates and trying to convince people that their point of view is not only reasonable but is the only way to think about the topic. Anyone who has a different opinion is clearly wrong.

That’s Not How Any of This Works

Slane then went on to condescendingly explain how the stock market works — presumably because everyone else is clearly uninformed, although quite a few respondents believe it is Slane and Kalshi that don’t fully understand the market or sports betting — while avoiding the core issue, which is Kalshi Trading serving as a major market maker for KalshiEX.

Let’s just say that went over about as well as you might expect:

Prediction Markets: The Glue Holding the World Together

Or this doozy, which I have as a contender for Quote of the Year:

I’m having a hard time understanding how prediction markets (which were a blip on the radar up until recently) are a central cog in the global financial machine.

And let’s not lose sight of the fact that the issue at hand (sports contracts) only began in 2025; there is no longstanding policy in place about sports betting at prediction markets. Or that the 2008 Dodd-Frank Act tried to save another financial meltdown by including a somewhat ambiguous clause that may or may not allow the CFTC to oversee sports betting (which was federally prohibited except for Nevada in 2008).

Flip-Flop

And then there are the dismissive statements about patchwork state regulation:

These comments don’t mix well with Slane’s previous comments when she was fighting for state-level legalization during her time with the American Gaming Association (AGA):

September 2018: Slane testified that state and tribal regulation was the way to go:

“The result of bringing betting activity into a legal market, under state and tribal regulatory oversight, will be increased transparency, game integrity and consumer protections, while supporting jobs and generating tax revenues…

“States and tribes have proven to be effective gaming regulators in the 26 years since Congress enacted PASPA. As Congress has refrained from regulating lotteries, slot machines, table games and other gambling products, it should similarly refrain from engaging on sports wagering barring an identifiable problem that warrants federal attention.”

Following the Supreme Court's PASPA decision, Slane told NBC Bay Area on May 23, 2018:

“Sara Slane, a senior vice president at the American Gaming Association, said she believes Congress is going to have a hard time catching up with states that are moving quickly to legalize and regulate sports betting.

“She said that many federal lawmakers already view sports betting as a states' rights issue and that it will be difficult for Congress to roll back those efforts once betting operations are up and running.

“‘I do see this as somewhat dead in the water," she said of federal legislation. "This is going to largely unfold on the state level.’”

We Built This [Thing That Is Decades Old]

Or how about the company’s claims of pioneering the technology, when, as Alfonso Straffon pointed out, they are simply pushing forward with a new interpretation of the law:

As I previously said, “They [Kalshi] have a strong case there, so I don’t understand the strategy behind constantly jumping the shark, as this isn’t the first bold claim Kalshi has made.”

Messiah Complex

And then there is the over-the-top rhetoric from CEO Tarek Mansour about Kalshi being some source of truth and embattled and engaged in a brutal, bloody war, fighting for its right to exist: