Instant Experts
How fake experts and impatient investors are pushing startups into risky strategies as they chase gambling gold rushes.
Several tweets from G2E caught my eye this week:
It reminded me of a phrase I heard Michael Moynihan use on an episode of the Fifth Column Podcast, “Instant experts; just add water.”
Meaning that in the age of 24/7 cable news and social media, everyone is seemingly an expert on whatever the topic of the day is. And by topic of the day, I mean whatever issue has a lot of interest and money attached to it. You name it, and they somehow have an informed opinion on it, no matter how novel or complex the issue might be.
Butler and Zochodne aren’t claiming to be instant experts, but many people in the space are. They sit around and wait for something to happen, and presto, just add water.
Ahead of the Curve
My newsletter launched in August 2023. The first mention of a prediction market (PredictIt) was in a late August entry, “PredictIt scores a big win for US Election betting.” I was on the prediction market beat very early, and I’d already been covering election betting and prediction markets like PredictIt for several years at some of my previous stops.
Kalshi first appeared in the newsletter in September 2023, in an article titled "Is the US Ready for Election Betting?" That was well over a year before Kalshi won the right to offer election contracts in court:
“In addition to PredictIt, the CFTC recently fielded a request from Kalshi, a for-profit prediction market, that “lets traders wager $25,000 on everything from monthly interest rate hikes to the timing of the next moon landing,” per Bloomberg.
“Kalshi wanted to offer a market on which party would control Congress following the 2024 elections.
“The CFTC denied the request, essentially saying it doesn’t want to open a Pandora’s Box.”
My ‘bottom line’ comment was a little too accurate:
“That said, the CFTC decision is unlikely to be the last word.”
Despite looking into prediction markets for at least five years, I’m no expert. And I’m skeptical of most people who claim to be.
The reason instant experts get taken seriously is that they are smooth talkers. They’re good at repeating and refining talking points — just don’t ask any follow-up questions.
The problem with instant experts is that they tend to have some cachet and are easily cajoled and manipulated. Actual experts or stakeholders can use them to advance an agenda.
I’ve written about this several times in the past because I think the instant experts (vampires, who suck the money out of the industry, as Victor Rocha calls them) are a plague on the industry.
Actually, the first instance was in my very first newsletter:
“For every legitimate expert I’ve run into, I’ve met five people who are somehow experts in everything. And by experts in everything, I mean people who know a little about a lot of things but speak with a certainty that doesn’t line up with their actual knowledge. Remember that when you see someone confidently wading into every social media debate, big and small. Or when someone is ranting about a problem you didn’t know existed, that they happen to be selling a solution for.”
“The older I get, the more I come to realize that many people we classify as experts or great thinkers are simply silver-tongued. They’re articulate and persuasive. They’re practiced public speakers who are good at reading a room, telling a joke, and holding you in suspense.”
And one more for good measure, in a feature titled, “The Duck Test”:
“Here’s what I’ve learned during my time in the industry: experts, myself included, are wrong… a lot. Worse, the loudest ones often have a vested interest in being “right.” Props to those who fess up about their investments; they’re rare birds, or I guess rare ducks.
“Experts look the part. They’re well-spoken and use all the latest lingo, [and] they’re about as accurate as a coin flip,”
As I went on to say, they act certain, because the thickness of their wallets depend on being right. And what side of the debate they land on often depends on who’s signing the checks.
Which brings me to another industry pet peeve of mine
