Instincts And Practiced Behaviors

Changing opinions is a lot harder when it goes against someone intuitive beliefs.

In last week’s feature column about the online gambling wars of the mid-2010s, I wrote, “Adelson and his allies masterfully deployed talking points that intuitively made sense (“Click a mouse, lose your house” and “A casino in every pocket,” complete with cell phone prop)…”

As I typed the column, I scribbled down the following on a notepad: “Intuition overrides evidence when evidence isn’t overwhelming.”

And that helps explain why the industry hasn’t overcome opposition to online casinos.

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Trusting your instincts is something I talk about a lot. At my martial arts school, I hammer home the point that you should trust that feeling when something doesn’t feel right. That doesn't mean you haul off and punch someone walking towards you, but you should look around at your surroundings, create a fence with your hands, and let the person know you are aware of their presence.

If you ignore your surroundings entirely, or just as badly, put your hands in your pocket and look down at the ground to avoid eye contact, you’re an inviting target if (and that’s a big if) the person is up to no good. You’ll be hit three or four times before you even know what is going on.

I know what you're thinking. Steve, if we instinctually sense danger and don’t act, doesn’t that blow a hole in your theory?

That happens because of our social instincts, which are reinforced by learned behavior. Most people want to and are taught to be polite. Most of the people we encounter are not looking to harm you, and if you’re wrong and start screaming at someone to get away, you will feel embarrassed. But being polite is also what gets people into trouble. Their instincts are going in two different directions: Something is wrong, and be polite.

There is a quote from Benny Binion that perfectly sums up this duality: “Trust everyone, but always cut the cards.”

It’s a great quote because it accomplishes both things: not causing offense and protecting oneself. However, putting that saying into practice requires a lot of practice.

Red Flags

In martial arts, we call this creating a fence—using your hands in a non-threatening way to put up a barrier that protects your personal space. It’s a way to trigger a trained response and be “on guard” without causing offense to the typical person but letting bad people know you are not an easy target.

That, and using a stern voice (“Can I help you?” or “Please back up.”) to assess the person’s intentions is a learned behavior.

Trust me, I’ve never met an adult who does this instinctively; it takes a lot of practice. When it’s real, even people who train it will say things like, “I froze.”

Here’s an example: It's not normal for someone to approach you and get closer than an arm’s length. Here’s an experiment you can do: Ask someone you know to come talk to you, and when they approach and stop, put your arm out; they will have stopped just outside of arm’s reach. Now, ask them to come one step closer, and you will suddenly both feel less comfortable, even though you know each other. Your body posture might change. Your eyes might start wandering. Unless you’re Jimmy Whispers, it’s not a normal distance from which to interact.

If someone you don’t know breaks that bubble, you should be very concerned; it’s not normal. Still, most people don’t know how to deal with someone invading their personal space. There is some evidence setting off alarm bells, but they don’t want to assume and offend the other person. The evidence isn’t overwhelming.

Again, don’t haul off and punch them or scream in their face, but you should be on alert and unequivocally tell them you want them to back up. Think about how weird it would be for someone not to say sorry and back up in this situation.

This is precisely what I meant when I scribbled down, “Intuition overrides evidence when evidence isn’t overwhelming.” Without extensive training, we default to our factory settings – and even then, when we face extreme stress, our factory settings will often override that training.

I Know Because I Know

Everyone intuitively/instinctively believes online gambling will lead to increased social harm and negatively impact land-based gambling. Anyone who has investigated it knows it takes a lot of effort and research to come to a different conclusion — just like it takes a lot of practice to put your hands between you and a possible threat.

The idea that online gambling might help identify problem gambling and get people the help they need or support land-based gambling is counterintuitive to a lot of the industry. To the average person, it’s illogical and implausible. Overcoming that will require an enormous amount of effort.

Let’s look at this excerpt from a recent commentary from columnist Max McCoy in the Kansas Reflector that points to online sports betting being a net negative: