It's Been One Week

A deep analysis of geolocation transactions and active accounts over the first seven days in the five most recently launched mobile sports betting states.

Mobile sports betting launches are big news in the gambling world, but five years post-PASPA, there are very few surprises. For better or worse, launches have become uneventful. One exception is that at some point during launch week, GeoComply will relay the number of geolocation transactions and accounts created while blessing us with its hypnotic pin-drop map.

The data is invaluable, but an apples-to-apples comparison of the launch numbers is tricky, as the timeframe is inconsistent. GeoComply will use 48 hours for one state, 24 hours in another, and a week in yet another. There are plenty of reasons for this approach. Some states launch on a Tuesday morning, while others launch on a Thursday night, right before a big football game.

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To compare apples-to-apples, I recently asked GeoComply if it could supply me with data over the first seven days of the five most recently launched states (basically, post-New York):

• Kansas (September 1, 2022 – September 8, 2022)

• Maryland (November 22, 2022 – November 29, 2022)

• Ohio (January 1, 2023 – January 8, 2023)

• Massachusetts (March 10, 2023 – March 17, 2023)

• Kentucky (September 28, 2023 – October 5, 2023)

And since you’re reading this column, GeoComply’s answer was yes.

Looking at the Data

My goal was to see if any of these states are overperforming or underperforming in the following areas:

• Geolocation Transactions – the number of geolocation checks GeoComply performs.

• Active Accounts – The number of unique accounts that have been geolocated.

From GeoComply: Geolocation checks are recorded at various stages of a user engaging with a legal sportsbook, including registering an account, logging in and placing a bet. GeoComply’s data does not purport to be definitive or represent the entire regulated US market but is intended to provide general insights into relevant market dynamics.

The simplest way to compare the states was on a per-adult-population basis (18+), which weeds out as many ineligible bettors as possible.

The Data

Kansas was the only real outlier in both data sets, with Maryland and Ohio slightly outperforming Massachusetts and Kentucky.

Extenuating Circumstances

Each state has its own peculiarities, so even in this quest for an apples-to-apples comparison, we must settle for a Macintosh to Red Delicious comparison. But if we consider the following factors, the data provided by GeoComply becomes more and more valuable:

1. Border populations

2. Betting culture

3. Operator burdens

4. Market competitiveness

5. Sports calendar

If I had included revenue, the median income would also play a factor. For geolocation transactions and active accounts, median income data had a very low signal-to-noise ratio.

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Border Populations Cut Both Ways

Border populations will impact geolocation transactions. The number of geolocation pings increases and decreases based on proximity to a state border.