Looking Ahead To 2024

What does 2024 have in store for the gambling industry? I have some ideas, four actually, and some more likely than others.

We’re approaching the end of 2023, and that means one thing: it’s prediction season. And in this industry, everybody makes them.

For nearly 20 years, Spectrum Gaming Group has published an annual list of the Top 10 US Trends in Gaming. Eilers & Krejcik Gaming made some “bold” predictions for next year. And a newer entry to the prediction game, Gambling.com founder and CEO Charles Gillespie, provided Nasdaq with three predictions.

I’m no stranger to predictions, and my track record is pretty solid when it comes to high-confidence predictions (I also take some fliers).

• Back in 2017, I talked up the PASPA case, interstate online poker agreements, and the possibility of online gambling in New York.

• In 2020, I made a lot of predictions (21 to be exact), including New York mobile betting, New England’s sports betting successes, stalled legislation, and the end of the Wire Act case.

• In 2021, I looked ahead to new sports betting products (SGPs fit the bill), a focus on marketing and responsible gambling, and the likelihood of some US sportsbooks calling it quits.

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Building on that legacy, I’ve come up with four predictions for 2024: one low-confidence prediction, one medium-confidence prediction, one high-confidence prediction, and one slam-dunk prediction. I skipped the boilerplate predictions like online casinos will get blanked and instead offered some interesting and unique ideas.

• Low-Confidence Prediction: Regulators will take a closer look at affiliates.

• Medium-Confidence Prediction: The second wave of sports betting will shake up the market.

• High-Confidence Prediction: Cybersecurity concerns cause us to reexamine convenience.

• Slam-Dunk Prediction: Industry in-fighting will continue to rise.

Let’s dive into each of these.

Low-Confidence Prediction: Affiliates Under the Microscope

Online gambling has been facing increasing regulatory scrutiny. To date, affiliates have flown under the regulatory radar, but that could change now that affiliates have announced their presence with the formation of the Responsible Gambling Affiliate Association (RGAA).

Affiliates have largely had a free pass in the US, evidenced by the affiliate industry’s irritation at the tactics of some of their peers (and lack of enforcement by regulators), like double-dipping and working with licensed and unlicensed operators.

There have been pockets of scrutiny, most notably in Connecticut (CPA deals are off-limits) and Illinois (revenue-share deals are prohibited). Massachusetts considered disallowing affiliates but eventually acquiesced and allowed CPA deals. North Carolina regulators are also considering disallowing affiliates, which was discussed during a meeting on Monday.

One of North Carolina’s proposed regulations states:

“No Operator may enter into an agreement with a third party to conduct advertising, marketing, or branding on behalf of, or to the benefit of, such Operator when compensation for such services is dependent on, or related to, the volume of Players, Wagers placed or the outcome of Wagers.”

With more and more operators shifting to revenue-sharing deals, states like Massachusetts and North Carolina taking much closer looks at the operator-affiliate relationship, and the sheer numbers publicly-traded affiliates are boasting about (see the below tweet), affiliates might be the next sector to feel the regulatory pinch, particularly as they fall into the marketing and advertising bucket, which regulators have taken a ‘keen’ interest in.

Medium Confidence Prediction: Sports Betting’s Second Wave

The first wave of sports betting is ending (2018-2023), and Wave 2 is already starting with a bang, with the arrival of ESPN Bet and Fanatics and Bet365’s new focus on the US.

So far, Bet365 is gradually building a presence in several US markets, Fanatics has made a small splash, and ESPN Bet seems to have created a tidal wave (at least early on).