Looking Back And Ahead
The calendar has flipped, which means its time to take a quick look back at 2023 before shifting our attention to what the gambling world can expect in 2024.
The Bulletin Board
NEWS: 2023 ushered in a redesigned US sports betting landscape.
QUICK HITTER: DFS 2.0 was a key plotline in 2023 and will continue to be a main storyline in 2024.
QUICK HITTER: Three more stories to keep an eye on in 2024: Sweepstakes, election betting, and skill games.
NEWS: Keep an eye on these five people/groups in 2024.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: A gossip-free (start) to 2024.
STRAY THOUGHTS: My choice for the most important gambling term in 2024.
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2023 Changed the US Sports Betting Landscape
2023 was an exciting year in the world of gambling. The US market was relatively static at the top, with FanDuel and DraftKings leading the way, followed by BetMGM and Caesars. But as you travel further down the list, all hell broke loose in 2023.
Last year, I put on my forecasting hat and came up with five potential trends for Gambling.com, and I’d like to focus on two of those, which are bolded below:
A renewed interest in online casino legalization.
Tough battles to legalize sports betting in the remaining states.
A reexamination of federal gambling laws.
The larger economic factors in the US and globally.
The consolidation of the US sports betting landscape.
You can read my four predictions for 2024 here.
Legalization is grinding to a halt, as the remaining states all have significant hurdles standing in their way. That reality, along with the dominance of the top two to three operators, led to a rethink among second and third-tier sportsbooks.
Some, like Unibet and FOX Bet, have thrown in the proverbial towel. Others, like Wynn, decided to wind down their operations. And still others, like Penn and Bally’s, decided to hit the reset button.
That has kickstarted the consolidation, but consolidation can happen in three ways:
Operators amassing more market share
Market exits
Mergers and acquisitions
The rich have certainly gotten richer, and as outlined above, several operators have called it quits. But, there has also been some M&A, with Fanatics gobbling up PointsBet. So, while I’ve pointed to ESPN Bet, Fanatics, and Bet365 as “new” operators, they are simply existing operators that have either changed strategies, reimagined themselves, or a little of both.
How the “new” entrants fare against the existing kings of the mountain will be the story to watch in 2024. Those three also happen to be the subject of my Friday Features over the next couple of weeks (the Fanatics article is already published).
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Quick Hitter: DFS 2.0 Was and Will Be a Big Story
Another big story from 2023 that will continue to grab headlines in 2024 is the ongoing debate over Pick ‘Em style fantasy sports contests.
As I wrote in my 2024 prediction column:
“The most public brouhaha in gambling is between DFS 2.0 operators like PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy (a newsletter sponsor), who are pitted against the likes of DraftKings and FanDuel. That fight isn’t going to end anytime soon, and I expect it to continue to spill over into other areas of the industry.”
Quick Hitter: Three More Stories to Watch in 2024
Sweepstakes
Sweepstakes are one of the more complex areas of gambling. The strange legal area it resides in has created a loophole of sorts, and some states, like Michigan, are looking at closing that loophole. Expect more of this in the coming years.
Election Betting
With the spread of sports betting, it was only a matter of time before election betting became a topic of interest. Election betting is largely off-limits in the US, but efforts are afoot to change that, if only incrementally.
Skill Games
Another polarizing area of gambling is so-called “skill games.” These slot-like machines with a skill component have faced increasing regulatory scrutiny and legal challenges with varying outcomes.
Who to Watch in 2024
Global Gaming Business has released its 25 People to Watch in 2024 list (you can find the complete list here). I’m going to focus on three of its selections and add two of my own:
Brett Abarbanel, Executive Director, UNLV IGI
With the new focus on responsible and problem gambling, folks like Dr. Brett occupy critical positions.
Shawn Fluharty, President, National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS)
NCLGS has always been a pro-legalization group, but new President Shawn Fluharty is easily the most pro-legalization and outspoken leader in NCLGS history.
James Siva, Vice Chairman. Morongo Band of Mission Indians; Chairman, California Nations Indian Gaming Association
California has become the battleground state between tribes and commercial operators, whether it’s mobile sports betting or the tribal-cardroom conflict that has been raging for years.
As The Innovation Group (TIG) said in an email on their trends to watch in 2024:
“We’ll also watch as Indian Country continues planning for iGaming, carefully guarding against revenue leakage to the major commercial players. The continued resistance to online sports in California may offer some insight into what iGaming battlegrounds could look like. Unlike with sports, casino brands themselves stand to be best positioned to launch iGaming given their existing databases and regulatory structures, presenting a far greater upside for tribes. Moreover, with major tailwinds from the Seminole case, we could actually see tribes embracing online gaming in a big, new way.”
My Picks:
Texas Lt Gov. Dan Patrick
Texas will be a state to watch in 2025 (not 2024), as the Lone Star State will likely have robust discussions about destination casinos and sports betting. That makes Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick a person to watch, thanks to a quirky Texas legislative rule that gives the Lt. Gov. final say on what matters get brought to the Texas Senate for a vote.
Patrick’s comments on these matters in 2024 (will he thaw?) will be a solid gauge of where the state stands in 2025.
The Massachusetts Gaming Commission
The MGC is rewriting the oversight rules on online betting. The regulatory body is bound by open meeting laws and has become the most fastidious in the country. Its SOP of enhanced regulations and restrictions will likely continue spreading to other jurisdictions. In effect, what the MGC decides for Massachusetts will eventually become the rule, not the exception, nationwide.
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
As much as I love this section, let’s start the new year gossip-free. Instead, here is a column from CDC Gaming Reports with 19 “gaming experts” offering their thoughts on what 2024 has in store - I was somehow included in this group.
Stray Thoughts
Friction is my word for 2024.
There is too much friction when a bettor seeks help and too little friction when they want to place wagers.
We need more friction on the entry side of the funnel - better KYC and more safeguards to keep impermissible bettors out of the ecosystem - and less friction on the exit side - withdrawal of funds, self-exclusion, and links to treatments and support.