The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Putting a stamp on Penn’s wild week.
BEYOND the HEADLINE: Penn CEO’s candid thoughts on prediction markets.
ROUNDUP: PrizePicks partners with Polymarket; ProphetX pivoting to PMs; DK founder exiting; CFTC nominee will get a hearing next week.
VIEWS: Is Massachusetts ready to say goodbye to GameSense?
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Prediction markets are not just for sports.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Pick a lane.
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The Lede: Penn’s Wild Week
Penn and ESPN have decided to end their ESPN Bet partnership nine months before the official opt-out period. The early exit has largely been applauded, despite Penn having to hand ESPN a $38.1 million payment in Q4 2025, as well as an additional $5 million for traditional media marketing to support theScore Bet and/or its Hollywood-branded online casino, per Legal Sports Report — Disney will retain the rights to ESPN Bet but cannot license or launch its own sportsbook with the brand for 15 months after December 1.
As Citizens noted:
“PENN lost $1.2bn in EBITDA alone from 2021 to 3Q25 for its digital business, excluding billions in M&A in recent years, yet the outlook, for the first time in years, appears promising to us as it returns to core operations… We are more positive on the direction of the business as it has control over the $205M of committed spend that went out the door to ESPN annually.”
And as I said on Friday:
“This is the key for land-based operators in the digital realm. Don’t try to own the digital space; use it to boost your land-based properties. You don’t have to win online to win online. A 3% market share can be huge if you aren’t spending hundreds of millions in marketing to acquire it.”
It appears that the sector has realized it’s not worth competing against DraftKings and FanDuel in the sports betting space, as Penn is the latest company to shift its focus to its land-based business and concentrate digital efforts on online casinos, which have far more parity than sports betting.
As Penn CEO Jay Snowden said:
“We are realigning our digital focus to leverage the strength of our U.S. iCasino and Canadian operations, while continuing to use OSB to drive both the acquisition of customers with significant lifetime value and unique cross-sell opportunities across PENN’s retail and digital assets.”
Beyond the Headline: Snowden on Prediction Markets
Penn CEO Jay Snowden: “My view on prediction markets is that this is a major threat to the industry,” an “existential” threat.
Snowden then offers what he terms as ‘everyone’s canned response,’ “We’re monitoring the situation.”
“I do think as an industry that we’ve got to play some offense here. When I say industry, I think it’s operators, it’s working with our regulators, working with our state legislators and lawmakers, because the posture that we’re taking at this point is very defensive.
“It’s going to take a long time to play out [in court]… I think as an industry, we need to come together and figure out how to play offense. I would say stay tuned. I do not think us all sitting around and monitoring what’s happening is going to be— It is not going to be a viable strategy.”
When asked about the possibility of “casino mechanics” appearing on prediction markets, Snowden didn’t mince words:
“I actually don’t think it’s that far off… You mentioned what Hard Rock’s doing in Florida. Now you’re talking about past motor races and sports betting, but it’s spinning a slot machine. Historical horse racing has been done in land-based businesses. I mean, let’s be very clear about this. I would be shocked if prediction market operators, as they’re raising money at significant valuations and seem to be doubling every few months, aren’t talking about this.
“If you can move forward with prediction markets and sports gambling, what would stop you from offering prediction markets and contracts on the next spin of a slot machine, the next hand of blackjack, the next spin of the ball for a roulette table? This is existential. This is not — we’re going to be talking about this, I think, in a matter of months, not years.”
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Roundup: PrizePicks + Polymarket; ProphetX Pivots; DK Founder Exiting; CFTC Chair Hearing
PrizePicks partners with Polymarket [Press Release]: PrizePicks has entered into a multi-year partnership with Polymarket “to facilitate the purchase of event contracts on the company’s soon-to-launch prediction markets offering.” Per the press release, “Through the partnership, PrizePicks will integrate Polymarket’s event contracts, spanning a wide range of sports, entertainment, and cultural moments… As Polymarket prepares for its anticipated re-entry into the U.S. market, this collaboration further strengthens its mission to make prediction markets accessible and trusted at a global scale.” Underdog has already entered into a similar relationship with Crypto.com. STTP Thoughts: Of note, Allwyn’s purchase of PrizePicks means the Illinois Lottery supplier, which could create some tension with a state that has come out against prediction markets.
ProphetX shifting from sweepstakes to prediction markets [Press Release]: ProphetX is yet another company looking to get into the prediction markets space, as the sweepstakes operator “announced it has filed applications with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to register as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO). Upon approval, ProphetX would become the first regulated exchange and clearinghouse in the United States built specifically for sports-based event contracts.”
DraftKings co-founder Matt Kalish is exiting in March [Casino Reports]: One of the three founders of DraftKings is ready to call it a day: “Matt Kalish, who has long served as president of the company alongside fellow founders Jason Robins (CEO) and Paul Liberman (President of Global Product and Technology), is leaving the company as of March 31, 2026. This is per an SEC 10-Q filing.” Kalish will continue to serve as a director on the DraftKings board. STTP Thoughts: While Robins is the public face of the company, Kalish has toiled away largely behind the scenes and is a huge part of the company’s success.
Confirmation hearing for the new CFTC Chairman nominee [Hearing]: The United States Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry will hold a confirmation hearing on Wednesday, November 19, for Michael Selig to be Chairman and Commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If confirmed by the committee, Selig’s nomination would move to the full Senate. Selig is the administration’s second nominee, following Brian Quintenz, who ran into opposition.
Views: Is Massachusetts Moving on From GameSense?
It appears that the Massachusetts Gaming Commission is poised to move forward without GameSense. The on-site program has offered information and support to casino-goers at all three Massachusetts land-based casinos since they opened their doors.
The first inkling of a change was a Request for Proposal (RFP) posted in July for Player Health Information and Support Services. Renewal of the state’s agreement with the British Columbia Lottery Corporation (BCLC), which owns and licenses GameSense, was a topic of conversation during MGC meetings from March to July 2025, signaling that the contract was set to expire sometime in H2 2025.
There are a couple of reasons the MGC may not be renewing with GameSense. The first is the cost. The second was rumblings about a decrease in the number of contacts being made by GameSense Advisors on the casino floor.
Per the listing, “The Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Massachusetts Gaming Commission, is soliciting Bidders for the development, implementation and operation of a Player Health Information and Support Program in support of the Massachusetts Gaming Commission’s efforts to prevent and mitigate harms related to casino gambling and sports wagering in the Commonwealth.”
According to a source familiar with the process, there have been two bidders: Kindbridge Research Institute and the Massachusetts Council.
The MGC has delayed announcing the contract award and added another 45 days to the process, and will interview both entities before making its final decision.
A previous version incorrectly identified Kindridge Health Institute, not Kindbridge Research Institute, as the bidder.
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Earlier this week, I wrote an article titled “Prediction Market Derangement Syndrome,” and one of the derangements I didn’t even get to is that prediction markets will only be tenable if they offer sports.
But as I previously asked, is sports the entree or the appetizer? “One has to wonder how significant the sports opportunity is for prediction markets and whether sports are destined to be the primary draw.”
As I’ve previously noted, I’m actually a pretty big fan of the product:
“Truth be told, I love the idea of prediction markets for elections and even major tentpole sporting events. I was covering PredictIt’s fight with the CFTC and Kalshi’s election betting case before practically anyone in the gambling industry. It’s a fascinating product, and as a pro-regulation advocate, I think they have a place in the pantheon of legal gambling options.
“Where you start to lose me is full-on sports betting (props, parlays, and vanity markets).”
And there is growing evidence that, whether Kalshi wins or loses its legal battle to offer sports contracts, there is a good use case for PMs beyond sports.
And while it was a significant election, this was an off-year mayoral race:
As ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher said during the company’s Q3 earnings call (recall that ICE is investing $2 billion in Polymarket):
“We were attracted by their non-sports activities… And so sports were not something that really got our interest. I think it’s great for Polymarket if they can make a business around that and make earnings around that, and certainly, longer-term for our equity stake in the business, that would be great.
“But we’re not a venture firm… That’s a long-winded way of saying good for Polymarket if they can navigate the sports complex, kind of not high on our list in terms of what we’re going to contribute to them and what they’ll contribute to us.”
Stray Thoughts
Building on yesterday’s Stray Thoughts…
Apropos of a lot of recent industry news, it’s very difficult to study two martial arts at the same time.
It’s really hard to get good at BJJ and Boxing at the same time. It’s not impossible, but it takes a considerable commitment.
Interestingly, the closer the two arts are, the more difficult it becomes. Try starting Boxing and Muay Thai, and you’ll soon discover that the subtle differences are the hardest ones to mesh together.