Paradigm Shifts
From the Poker Boom to wave after wave of legalization, the online gambling industry has undergone numerous changes over the last 25 years.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Life moves fast, and the gambling industry moves even faster.
ICYMI: PGCB fines BetMGM; 888 adds HUD; Delta+DraftKings details; NV considers legal Lottery; Quote of the Week.
NEWS: Sweepstakes supporters and critics exchange jabs.
NEWS: Las Vegas Sands' opposition to online gambling intensifies.
VIEWS: 3 reasons why online gambling expansion is unlikely in 2025.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER: Indiana Senate President: Get online casino right, not fast.
STRAY THOUGHTS: The more things change…
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The Lede: The Industry Changes Every Two to Three Years
The online gambling sphere has gone through some significant changes over the last 25 years, and I’ve had a bird’s eye view of it all. I was recently discussing this with someone who has as many years under their belt as I do, and it dawned on me that these shifts seem to come in two to three-year cycles.
The first online poker site went live in 1998, and by 2001, there were dozens of online poker, sports betting (online sports betting pre-dates poker by about three years), and casino options.
Here’s a brief rundown of the cycles I’m talking about:
In late 2003, the Poker Boom fuse was lit and set to explode.
In 2006, Congress passed UIGEA, which caused the most prominent online gambling sites to exit the US market.
In 2009, federal legalization efforts were in full swing, following successful and ongoing European efforts.
In 2011, the federal government shut down the three largest online poker sites (Black Friday).
Also in 2011, the DOJ Office of Legal Counsel issued its Wire Act opinion that allowed states to legalize online gambling.
In 2013, three states legalized and launched online gambling sites.
In 2015, daily fantasy sports upended the entire gambling sphere, ushering in a rash of legalization and the beginning of the “Is it gambling” debate.
PASPA was repealed in 2018.
There was COVID in 2020, which fundamentally changed land-based gambling and accelerated online growth.
At the same time, European markets began increasing consumer protection via law and regulation, which are now being introduced in the US.
DFS 2.0 (2023), sweepstakes (2024), and prediction markets (2025) are the latest market disruptors, and one of them is likely to be a game-changer.
So, what is the next paradigm shift? That could be a rash of online casino legalization, a government crackdown, or a new product no one is even aware of.
ICYMI: PGCB Fines BetMGM; 888 Adds HUD; Delta+DraftKings; NV Lottery; Quote of the Week
PGCB fines BetMGM $260k: The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board hit BetMGM with the fourth-highest fine in state history, $260,904.11, for allowing self-excluded gamblers to wager on the app. As reported by Play Pennsylvania, BetMGM “allowed 148 accounts who were on the iGaming self-exclusion list.” BetMGM self-reported three more incidents. Per Play PA, “In total, $436,381.00 was deposited, and $175,476.89 was withdrawn, a difference of $260,904.11,” which is the number the PGCB used for the fine.
888 Poker adds integrated HUD to the platform: The use (misuse?) of technology has caused an uproar within the poker community (my thoughts here). Sites are trying to get ahead of technological advancements and level the playing field for all users. With that in mind, 888 is the latest online poker site to integrate a heads-up display (HUD) into its software, as third-party bans have proven difficult to enforce. As Pokerfuse.com noted, “The solution tries to strike a balance between banning HUDs altogether and giving more experienced players a significant edge over their more casual opponents.” As Anuj Arora tweeted, 888 joins GGPoker, the iPoker network, Winamax (France + Spain), BetRivers Poker (PA only), and others with HUDs.
Delta-DraftKings partnership comes into focus: After much speculation, we now know what the DraftKings-Delta mashup might look like, at least initially. Delta's website said it is “exploring” a partnership with DraftKings: “The potential collaboration contemplates that eligible SkyMiles Members can access free gaming as an additional offering on Delta Sync Wi-Fi available through SkyMiles Members’ personal electronic devices. The Delta Sync experience does not include gaming of any kind using real money or miles.”
Nevada legislature looks to authorize a state lottery: Per the Nevada Independent, a 159-year-old lottery prohibition could be coming to an end if the legislature passes it for the second time (and the voters approve it in 2026): “The measure, AJR5, passed easily in both legislative chambers in 2023 but requires a second approval before it can be sent to Nevada voters in 2026.” As the Nevada Independent points out, the effort faces stiff opposition from the casino industry. Nevada is one of five states that don’t have a state-run lottery: Alabama, Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah are the others.
Quote of the Week: “An extensive investigation revealed no evidence that Mr. Hoberg placed bets on baseball directly or that he or anyone else manipulated games in any way. However, his extremely poor judgment in sharing betting accounts with a professional poker player he had reason to believe bet on baseball and who did, in fact, bet on baseball from the shared accounts, combined with his deletion of messages, creates, at minimum, the appearance of impropriety that warrants imposing the most severe discipline.” ~ MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred on the decision to terminate Hoberg.
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News: Sweepstakes Supporters and Critics Point Fingers
With several states introducing legislation to prohibit (or bring sweepstakes into the legal online gambling camp), the sector’s trade group, the Social and Promotional Gaming Association (SPGA,) hit back in a statement released yesterday:
“The Connecticut bill is yet another unfortunate example of anti-competitive special interests bending lawmakers to their will at the expense of innovation, small businesses, and the millions of American adult consumers who enjoy the safe and engaging mobile games social casinos offer.
“The bottom line: No legislature should dictate to American adults what they can and can't do on their phones. Outlawing free-to-play mobile games is a shocking overreach that is an insult to the voters of Connecticut. What app will they come for next?
“Properly-operated sweepstakes are legal. SPGA members offer safe, responsibly-operated social games that never require a purchase to play or to win a prize. So, who are lawmakers seeking to protect here? No one but the entrenched casino lobby, who only win when consumers lose.”
Sweeps critic Howard Glaser responded on LinkedIn with the following:
And more news on the sweepstakes front, per Daniel Wallach:
To my knowledge, these will be the first formal hearings focused on sweepstakes.
News: Las Vegas Sands Familiar Online Gambling Stance
After stymieing legalization efforts for half a decade, Las Vegas Sands's opposition to online gambling appeared to thaw following the repeal of PASPA and the rapid spread of mobile sports betting.
More recently, the company has reverted to its previous position, with one significant difference: LVS no longer cites moral concerns (as it did when Sheldon Adelson waged his crusade against online gambling). Its new anti-online rhetoric seems 100% focused on the bottom line.
When asked about the company’s ambitions to land one of the three New York casino licenses vis-a-vis the potential legalization of online gambling, LVS CEO Rob Goldstein said:
“The iGaming possibility in any market that has land-based gambling and sports betting seems inevitable… At sometime during the construction phase, you could be faced with an iGaming competitor, which dilutes the value of the product. So that’s our conundrum.”
Goldstein went on to say that New York is a “great market” that LVS would love to be in, but “the caveat is how do you deal with the ongoing threat” of online gambling.
Views: No (Online Gambling) Expansion For You
Zero new online gambling (sports betting or casinos) in 2025. That’s the belief of most industry analysts, and while I’m not as pessimistic as others, I’d also make zero new states the betting favorite.
There are many reasons for this, but the current Top 3 are:
Stakeholder concerns and disagreements: Land-based casinos, VGT and skill game suppliers, lotteries, and other existing gambling operators either fear cannibalization or disagree on how the market should be structured. This lack of a unified voice has allowed opponents to take a divide-and-conquer approach.
The remaining states are remaining states for a reason: If passing sports betting legislation in Minnesota or online casino legislation in Maryland, New York, or Indiana was straightforward, it would already have been accomplished. Every remaining state has unique structural hurdles that make wrangling votes difficult.
The zeitgeist doesn’t favor expansion: there is a legalization hangover after the rapid spread of mobile sports betting. The current mood is to rein in the existing industry, be it state-licensed sites, gray sweepstakes operators, or offshore black market sites. Given the current landscape, if a bill were to pass in 2025, it would likely be a difficult pill for the industry to swallow, with heavy burdens and restrictive policies.
Still, this is the gambling industry, and anything can and often does happen.
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
There’s a push for online casinos in Indiana, but as STTP has noted, there is lingering opposition in the State Senate, which was recently crystallized by Indiana Senate President Pro Tempore Roderick Bray, who said he doesn’t want to rush online casinos.
As reported by the Indiana Capital Chronicle, Bray understands the importance of the gambling industry to the state but wants the legislature to get it right:
“I don’t think it’s good policy to chase revenue. I think you have to decide what the right policy is and then maybe the revenue comes. But if you’re chasing revenue that way, you’re probably not making good policy decisions.”
It’s not a death sentence for Indiana online casino efforts, but it’s not a stamp of approval.
Stray Thoughts
Although the industry has changed significantly over the last 25 years, it has remained fundamentally the same. The human attraction to chance and risk will continue to drive innovation, and the industry will continue to argue about new products that resemble existing ones.
"The more things change, the more they remain the same." ~ Alphonse Karr