Questioning The Answer

The iCasino debate: Supporters claim market growth. Opponents warn of 15-30% land-based revenue loss. And lawmakers prioritize optics over industry revenue goals.

Steve Ruddock

Jul 21, 2025

THE LEDE: The cannibalization debate will worsen before it improves.
ROUNDUP: Oregon lotto couriers; Iowa fines FanDuel; PokerStars auto-seating; Quote of the Week; Gambling loss deduction update.
NEWS: Brian Quintenz committee confirmation vote scheduled for today.
VIEWS: Barstool inks deal with Fox Sports.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: The tradeoff of legalization and regulation.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Looking ahead.

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The Lede: iCasino Supporters and Opponents Trade Barbs

I’ve written extensively about cannibalization (here, here, and here, to start, along with numerous podcasts) and have likely devoted more time researching and studying the topic than just about anyone in the gambling industry.

With that as an introduction, here’s what I know to be true when it comes to cannibalization… not much.

The debate was rekindled during the recent NCLGS conference and continued on social media between the National Association Against iGaming (NAAiG) and iDEA Growth’s John Pappas of iDEA Growth. Tom Nightingale wrote an excellent summary for SBC Americas, which can be found here.

While it often goes in ten different directions, the debate boils down to one thing: do online casinos siphon money and customers away from land-based properties?

Online casino opponents claim cannibalization could approach 30%.

Respected analysts, such as The Innovation Group and Macquarie, believe that online casinos will result in a 15-16% loss in land-based revenue.

On the other hand, iCasino supporters will argue that there is zero cannibalization, with some believing that online casinos boost brick-and-mortar revenue by increasing the total addressable market.

As I previously noted, “We have two narratives, one pointing to growth and one to woe.”

“[There are] dueling studies… that all skew in different directions: Slightly positive (TIG), very positive (EKG), slightly negative (the fiscal report), and very negative (Sage), with the latter concluding online casinos would result in 1,200 and 2,700 fewer jobs and a 26% reduction in land-based casino revenue.”

So, what are lawmakers to believe? This is not a difference of a few percentage points; supporters and opponents are arguing two different realities.

So, what to do? As I wrote on Friday:

“The problem, as I see it, is that the industry equates success with revenue growth, but lawmakers measure it differently…
“Lawmakers, swayed by constituent complaints and advocacy groups highlighting rising addiction rates or moral concerns, often lean on their gut feelings rather than the industry’s economic arguments. While tax revenue and consumer protections are wins, optics are just as important.
“And that’s where the revenue goals become misaligned; the industry wants to boost revenues and, by extension, tax revenue by expanding the market. Lawmakers don’t care about the total addressable market (TAM) as long as tax revenue grows, or at least doesn’t decrease. If it does, they’ll simply take a larger share of the operators' slice of the pie and chalk it up as an effort to curb the industry’s excesses...
“The gambling industry must redefine success beyond revenue… By clinging to a revenue-centric mindset, the industry risks further alienating regulators and the public.”

Roundup: OR Lotto Couriers; IA Fines FanDuel; PokerStars Auto-Seating; Quote of the Week; Loss Deduction Update

Oregon considering regulation of lottery couriers [Lottery Geeks]: The regulatory fights happening in the lottery courier space are being drowned out by sweepstakes, prediction markets, and DFS 2.0, but their significance shouldn’t be overlooked. The latest comes out of Oregon, where, according to Lottery Geeks, “The Oregon Lottery has filed a notice of proposed rulemaking in which it seeks to adopt regulations for retailers who work with a lotto courier, and would also ban out-of-state sales." A revised proposal to the original one filed July 11 was filed with the Oregon Secretary of State on Monday and will be the subject of a hearing scheduled for Aug. 20. Public commentary is open until the end of the business day Aug. 29.”

Iowa regulators fine FanDuel for self-exclusion error [Gambling Harm]: Iowa regulators handed FanDuel a $30,000 fine. According to Gambling Harm, “For nearly eight months in 2024, FanDuel Sportsbook’s self-exclusion feature on its website and mobile app wasn’t functioning properly in Iowa… Users in Iowa were unable to complete a lifetime FanDuel self-exclusion through FanDuel’s platforms as required by state rules. Users who attempted to select the lifetime FanDuel self-exclusion option were continually prompted to select “submit request” without receiving a confirmation.”

PokerStars shifts to automated seating in low-stakes games [Pokerfuse]: Beginning on July 15, PokerStars introduced a new seating system, SeatFinder, for select low-stakes cash games in its online market. PokerStars’ existing “Quick Seat” feature did the same, but players could still manually select their seat if they desired. The new change eliminates players' ability to choose tables and seats in No-Limit Hold’em and Pot-Limit Omaha cash games with stakes up to $1/$2. STTP Thoughts: This is long overdue, and likely something we will see more of moving forward to protect the low-stakes poker ecosystem.

Quote of the Week: “The average wager at Saracen on the sportsbook is somewhere around $30 — what I call a skin-in-the-game bet. Do we take large bets? Yeah, we've had people bet hundreds of thousands of dollars on a given game. But the key here is our tens of thousands of active users every month are what I would consider casual, low-dollar recreational bettors… So the bottom line is, this is not ruinous on the industry. It’s probably going to affect a handful of bettors in Arkansas. But despite it all, we care about that handful of bettors.” ~ Carlton Saffa, Chief Marketing Officer, Saracen Casino Resort

Senate bill to reverse the gambling loss deduction cap officially introduced [S 2230]: Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s bill (the FULL HOUSE Act) to reverse the recently enacted gambling loss deduction cap was officially introduced in Congress on July 9. The effort failed a unanimous consent attempt and is now in the Senate Finance Committee. It has three cosponsors, including Sen. Ted Cruz. A similar effort in the House, the FAIR BET Act (HR 4304), sponsored by Nevada Rep. Dina Titus, is also gaining support, with seven cosponsors.

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News: Quintenz Confirmation Vote Coming

The Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry has scheduled a vote on four nominees, including Brian Quintenz, who President Trump tapped to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Quintenz is expected to be confirmed by the Committee and the Senate, but his nomination is not uncontroversial, with most concerns centered on his cozy relationship with Prediction Markets.

Straight to the Point obtained a copy of the letter sent to the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Chairman John Boozman and Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar by the American Gaming Association, the Indian Gaming Association, the National Council on Problem Gambling, and many other national, state-level, and tribal entities.

The letter urges the Committee to push for more forthright answers from Quintenz on sports event contracts:

“During his confirmation hearing… Mr. Quintenz failed to provide meaningful clarity on the controversial issue of sports event contracts in response to questions by members of the Committee.
“We respectfully request that the Committee require the nominee to fully address the concerns raised at the hearing and commit to upholding and enforcing applicable CFTC regulations before moving forward with his nomination.

The letter stops short of opposing Quintenz’s confirmation. Still, it does “urge the Committee not to advance Mr. Quintenz’s nomination until he has committed to initiate a CFTC review of these contracts if he is confirmed.”

The letter also highlights his prior statements and the unusual circumstances with which he will ascend to the chairmanship of the CFTC:

“Instead of using his confirmation hearing to provide clarity on this issue, Mr. Quintenz implied that if he is confirmed the CFTC will continue to do nothing to address gaming contracts.
“It should be deeply troubling to this Committee that he offered no assurances that the CFTC under his leadership would enforce its own regulations.
“This is even more concerning based on the fact that Mr. Quintenz is poised to not only become the CFTC Chair but could also be the sole commissioner based on current vacancies and planned departures. With no requirement for a quorum, it is imperative that the Chair enforce the rules.”

Views: Barstool + Fox Sports; Different or More of the Same

It’s official: FOX Sports and Barstool Sports have inked an agreement that will see the blending of Barstool’s most prominent voices with Fox programming in an effort to engage a new generation of fans.

Per a Fox press release, the deal integrates Barstool’s “authentic, bold and original voice” with FOX Sports’ platforms.

Barstool founder Dave Portnoy tweeted the following after the deal was announced [bold mine]:

“Emergency Press Conference - Barstool Sports is Proud to announce a new wide ranging partnership with Fox Sports. This is the 1st time in our illustrious and notorious history that we’ve got a TV partner we believe in and believes in us. I can’t wait to see what we create together.”

The bolded part is a clear shot at ESPN, which canceled its collaborative effort with Barstool (Barstool Van Talk) after a single episode aired in 2017.

Here are some of the specifics of the new Fox-Barstool deal:

Big Noon Kickoff: Dave Portnoy joins as a regular contributor for 2025 college football.
Barstool College Football Show: Airs 9:00-9:45 AM ET on Barstool channels, Tubi, FOX Sports App, and Foxsports.com for select games.
Daily FS1 Show: Barstool produces a live two-hour weekday program with FOX Sports talent.
College Basketball: Barstool contributes to FOX’s College Basketball Crown coverage in 2025-26

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Around the Watercooler

Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.

Some food for thought from Eilers & Krejcik’s Alun Bowden:

Stray Thoughts

It’s been a very busy few weeks, and while I’d like to include every important story in the newsletter every day, I have to push some news back a day or two to keep it a manageable read and give each item the attention it deserves (meaning not just a news summary).

So, if you’re looking for updates on prediction markets, the situation in California, and numerous other story arcs playing out, fear not, you’ll find them in upcoming newsletters — Prediction markets are ready to go tomorrow, and California is slated for Wednesday.