Super Bowl LVIII By The Numbers

Analyzing Super Bowl LVIII through the lens of sports betting. Did betting estimates match the results? Plus a look at app download, active user, and geolocation data.

The Super Bowl is a premiere event on the sports calendar, and when the game ends, the reporting begins. This year was no exception, with numbers and data flying around all week, all looking to tell a particular story:

• Betting estimates and early betting numbers.

• App downloads.

• New accounts.

• Geolocation pings and active accounts.

• Product breakdowns.

Instead of reporting on these stories individually, I decided to package them all together in this column.

Pre-Game Handle Predictions vs. Reality

Several Firms put out Super Bowl betting predictions in the lead-up to the game.

• Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (a newsletter sponsor) pre-game estimate: $1.25 Billion

• Legal Sports Report pre-game estimate: $1.3 Billion

• Macquarie Securities pre-game estimate: $1.5 billion

• Regulus pre-game estimate: $1 billion

We won’t have a complete picture of the national betting handle for some time, but we can look at a key state to gauge how accurate the predictions are.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board reported a record $185.6 million wagered on the Super Bowl. That number was ahead of both EKG’s $160 million estimate and Legal Sports Report’s estimate of $170 million for the state. Regulus and Macquarie Securities didn’t provide a state-by-state breakdown.

“The fact that some Nevada sports betting apps require separate signup from their rest-of-country partners will make it more challenging for operators to capitalize on out-of-state visitors to Allegiant Stadium,” LSR’s Eric Ramsey said. “Our model has hosting duties padding the score in Nevada’s favor at around $170 million, possibly even challenging its own all-time record ($179.8 million, 2022.)”

The Nevada Gaming Control Board tweeted the following look at the handle and revenue from the last 10 Super Bowls.

Las Vegas’s host status was predicted to provide a 10% visitation bump (330,000 visitors), according to CDC Gaming Reports. A typical Super Bowl attracts about 300,000 visitors. Spend was predicted at $500 million.

But now it looks like the visitation and spending numbers could shatter expectations. Per the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

“Before Super Bowl weekend, analysts predicted around 330,000 people would visit Las Vegas for the big game and its festivities. But now, that number could reach as high as 450,000, officials say. And spending over the long Super Bowl weekend could reach as high as $1.1 billion.”

Analysts believe increased local enthusiasm and the Taylor Swift effect could have also played a role in the record-setting betting numbers.

According to Macquarie’s Chad Beynon, “interest from a whole new demographic, mostly women. We view Super Bowl LVIII as unequivocally positive for sportsbooks.”

The numbers out of New Jersey also beat estimates, as the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement reported $141.6 million wagered no the Super Bowl. EKG predicted $120 million and LSR $114 million.

New York came in at $162.2 million, ahead of the $155 million predicted by EKG and the $139 million predicted by LSR.

A couple of other states that have released numbers, Pennsylvania and Maine, came in under estimates, but as with the above states, in the ballpark.

Who Won the App Battle?

Per a flash note from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, there were close to 900,000 mobile sports betting app downloads during Super Bowl week. 52% of the downloads were for FanDuel and DraftKings, which may seem like a massive share (and it is) but it was well below the 75% the two combined for in 2023.

As EKG points out, the big difference is the new slate of challenger brands like Hard Rock Bet, ESPN Bet, bet365, and Fanatics.