Take It Under Advisement
In a letter to the CFTC, the NFL made two prediction market policy recommendations: Raise the minimum age to 21 and prohibit certain kinds of markets.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: NFL sends letter to the CFTC on prediction markets.
NEWS: 60 Minutes looks into insider trading on prediction markets.
ROUNDUP: A look at the stories you may have missed.
PREDICTION MARKET NEWS: The latest on the prediction market front.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: On your bike! Tony G rekindles Hellmuth feud.
STRAY THOUGHTS: The elephant and the twig.
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The Lede: The NFL Opines on Prediction Markets
As reported by CNBC, The National Football League has submitted a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding the regulation of sports contracts at prediction markets. Interestingly, the NFL did not submit the letter during the public comment period for CFTC rulemaking — as STTP previously noted, the NFL, MLB, PGA, and the ATP did submit public comments.
The NFL made two core requests, per CNBC’s reporting, and both align with comments from the other professional sports leagues: “Banning certain event contracts and raising the age requirement for participation.”
The letter, penned by senior vice president for government affairs and public policy for the NFL Brendon Plack, reads in part:
“These suggestions are aimed at (i) protecting the integrity of the sporting events to which the prediction contracts relate, and (ii) protecting participants in these prediction markets from fraudulent or manipulative behavior.”
Among the markets the NFL would like to see prohibited are mention markets, injuries, anything “knowable in advance,” like the first play of the game, and markets that can be easily manipulated by a single individual.
As I noted in my reporting on the public comments, professional leagues are not calling for prohibitions, rather they want restrictions similar to state-regulated sportsbooks: “The leagues were careful not to take a side in the legal fight, but did make several recommendations,” including limiting prediction market usage to 21+ and:
Limits on easily manipulable markets: Spillane asked the CFTC “to impose meaningful limits on the types of permitted markets - particularly with respect to markets that are more susceptible to manipulation and/or misuse of confidential information,” and Quest Meeks, Senior Vice President & Head Counsel, Policy, Integrity & Compliance for the NBA asking that “DCMs should not list contracts that a league has identified — through a public notice or other mechanism — as readily susceptible to manipulation or unfair trading practices.”
Responsible gaming tools: All four leagues urged the CFTC to mandate responsible “trading” policies: “We urge the Commission to adopt a robust set of responsible trading requirements. Specifically, DCMs should be required to provide (directly and/or by requiring their contracted FCMs to provide) responsible trading tools to their customers, such as deposit limits, trading breaks, and educational resources to understand risks,” Spillane wrote. The NBA, PGA, and ATP letters made the same recommendation.
Official League Data: “In order to avoid confusion and maintain fan and consumer confidence in sports prediction markets, DCMs should be required to, wherever possible, use only officially-verified data to settle sports-related contracts,” Spillane said. The ATP also expressly mentioned official league data.
News: 60 Minutes Talks Prediction Markets… Again
60 Minutes aired a segment on prediction markets back in November, and last night it went there again, looking at instances of potential insider trading on war markets.
Of note, the CFTC declined to be interviewed for the segment, but did say it was hiring more enforcement staff.
60 Minutes did note that these types of wagers are illegal on US-regulated exchanges, but can be found on unregulated exchanges operating offshore, which are easily accessible to US residents via VPNs and other workarounds.
Expect this regulatory difference to be highlighted by Kalshi this week, continuing the sniping I highlighted last week:
Kalshi has consistently tried to paint itself as the compliance-focused prediction market, while casting Polymarket as the rulebreaker. “Yes, there’s an ‘unregulated, offshore prediction market,’ which is not like Kalshi, NPR’s Bobby Allyn wrote in the appropriately titled column, 2 young billionaires are behind the prediction market boom. They hate each other. “Too many people, Mansour says, confuse Kalshi for that ‘non-American, unregulated platform.’”
Roundup: So Much News; So Little Newsletter Space
Morongo Tribe issues $5,000 grants to 111 non-profits [CDC Gaming Reports]: “The Morongo Band of Mission Indians in Cabazon, California, announced on Thursday that it has awarded nearly $450,000 in grants to non-profit organizations serving communities across Riverside and San Bernardino counties… The Morongo program focuses on groups that provide education, healthcare, or social services, preserve Native American culture, or support military and military families. The 111 non-profit groups, which each received grants of up to $5,000.” STTP Thoughts: Plenty of people complain about tribal “monopolies” or protectionist attitudes, but stories like this illustrate the community impact they have. And this is far from a one-off story.
Maine Tribes want lawsuit against online casino law tossed [ReadWrite]: “Maine’s four Wabanaki Nations are asking a federal judge to throw out Oxford Casino’s challenge to the state’s new internet gaming law, arguing the measure is grounded in tribal sovereignty and Maine’s longstanding legal agreements with federally recognized tribes. The filing is the latest development in a lawsuit over Maine’s Economic Opportunity Act, which Gov. Janet Mills signed earlier this year after a heated debate over online casino gambling. The law authorizes the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, Mi’kmaq Nation, Passamaquoddy Tribe and Penobscot Nation to each receive one internet gaming license and partner with outside operators.” Previous STTP coverage of Maine’s legalization efforts, the subsequent lawsuit, and what everyone gets wrong about tribal gaming in Maine.
California cities push back on new cardroom regulations [ABC 7]: “Several California cities urged state lawmakers on Tuesday to intervene after new state regulations reshaping cardroom operations prompted warnings of steep financial losses and potential job cuts. The rules, approved by the California Department of Justice, prohibit games such as blackjack in cardrooms - a game allowed on Native American reservations. Cities including Bell Gardens and Commerce aim to challenge the changes in court, arguing the regulations threaten municipal budgets and local employment.” Previous STTP coverage of the cardroom regulations here and here.
Oklahoma overrides governor veto of sweepstakes bill [Covers]: “Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt has vetoed Senate Bill 1589, stopping a proposal that would have sharply expanded the state’s gambling law to cover online casino-style games and dual-currency sweepstakes platforms.” The Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association (OIGA) released the following statement after the veto override: “We appreciate the Oklahoma Legislature’s bipartisan override of Governor Stitt’s veto of SB 1589 and HB 4432. The Oklahoma Legislature’s recognition of the importance to push back against illegal gaming in this state and ensuring Oklahoma taxpayers are not unfairly taxed on gambling activity beyond their actual net winnings reflects Oklahoma’s continued efforts to maintain a competitive business climate while supporting industries that contribute significantly to the state’s economy, including entertainment, hospitality, and tribal gaming operations.”
Lodge Card Club set to reopen on May 26 [Poker Industry Pro]: “The Lodge Card Club in Austin, Texas, has announced that it will reopen its doors on Tuesday, May 26. The grand reopening of the biggest and most popular poker club in the Lone Star State marks the end of a legal battle that lasted for nearly two months. On April 28, a Williamson County Grand Jury heard the case against the Lodge and decided not to indict, clearing the air of uncertainty that had shrouded the club since March 10.” Previous STTP coverage of the Lodge shutdown and investigation resolution.
Hard Rock launching in Ontario [Covers]: “The Seminole-owned online sports betting and internet casino gambling brand was issued an iGaming registration by the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (AGCO) on Thursday, according to the regulator’s registry.”
Gambling firms are spending big on Georgia, Alabama, and Pennsylvania campaigns [Complete iGaming, AL.com, and Spotlight PA]: Online gambling companies have contributed around $10 million to “campaigns supporting candidates who favor regulation of the industry” in Georgia. Alabama is another state that has seen an influx of money: “A coalition of nine organizations sent a letter to state officials asking for an investigation into gambling-linked campaign contributions flowing to Alabama candidates for Tuesday’s primary.” And over in Pennsylvania: “Gaming and gambling interests whose industries were eyed for new or higher taxes in 2025 have spent $8.1 million and counting in the lead-up to Pennsylvania’s May primary.”
Lack of growth and AI lead to industry layoffs [Front Office Sports]: Penn Entertainment and Gambling.com Group are the latest gambling companies that have made cuts. As Front Office Sports put it, this underscores “a troubling trend as the industry adopts artificial intelligence while facing financial pressure and increasing competition from prediction markets.” Penn cut around 75 employees from its Interactive division, while Gambling.com Group announced a 25% reduction, affecting about 150 people. As FOS noted, “The cuts follow layoffs earlier this year at Underdog, PrizePicks, and DraftKings. FanDuel, meanwhile, just pushed out its CEO amid disappointing financial performance.” Jordan Bender, equity research analyst at Citizens, tells FOS the industry has reached a point where “growth is starting to materially slow,” citing a natural slowing of growth in maturing markets and the threat of prediction markets.
Prediction Market Roundup: Bite-Sized PM News
New Mexico tribes sue Kalshi [Source NM]: As STTP reported in passing last week, “Three New Mexico pueblos and one tribe on Tuesday sued the prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging the app enables sports gambling on tribal land and, in doing so, violates gaming compacts and federal law. In an announcement Wednesday, the plaintiffs — the Mescalero Apache Tribe, as well as the Pojoaque, Sandia and Isleta Pueblos — said Kalshi provides anyone over age 18 access to sports gambling in New Mexico, which deprives tribes of revenues they receive for schools and other services in accordance with hard-fought tribal compacts and state and federal law.”
New York launches RG campaign targeting prediction markets [SBC Americas]: “The New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC) has launched a new campaign to educate residents and visitors about the risks associated with unlawful gambling. On Friday, the NYSGC launched its Unlawful Gambling = Risky Bets initiative, providing bettors in the Empire State with the knowledge and tools to identify unlicensed gambling platforms and protect themselves from the dangers of unlawful wagering.”
Robinhood-Susquehanna exchange is preparing for launch [InGame]: “Robinhood and Susquehanna’s new prediction market Rothera looks to be on the verge of launching, after the business self-certified its first contract with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The self-certifications were published by the CFTC Wednesday and first reported by PredictionMarketPulse… Rothera submitted three self-certifications: on baseball games, weekly jobless claims, and the core PCE price index — a measure of inflation often dubbed the ‘Fed’s favorite measure.’ The filings say that Rothera plans to list the contracts ‘on or after May 20.’”
News: RI Sports Betting Monopoly Is Now a Duopoly
The Rhode Island Lottery has selected a second online sports betting provider, and it’s a familiar name in the state: Bally’s, the state’s only land-based casino operator (with two properties in the state) and its only online casino operator.
“Bally’s will get more of the gambling action in Rhode Island, as it has now been chosen to operate the state’s second online sports betting site. Since 2019, the state has only allowed one online sports betting outlet, Sportsbook Rhode Island operated by IGT.”
As Straight to the Point has reported, the Rhode Island Lottery began accepting applications for a second sportsbook operator earlier this year, after a request for proposal period. The state received just two proposals, and selected Bally’s over Rush Street Interactive, which supplies Delaware with its online sports betting and online casino platforms through that state’s lottery.
As the local press noted, the new agreement is a major plus for Bally’s:
“Under the state’s revenue sharing structure, the state gets 51% of the revenue, the online vendor receives 32%, and the physical sports book receives 17%. So, in IGT’s deal, IGT gets 32% and Bally’s gets 17%, according to O’Rourke. Now, in its own new deal, Bally’s will get all 49% as the second online betting site, since it is both the online operator and has the physical location.”
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Tony G will never pass up an opportunity to rib Phil Hellmuth… EVER:
Stray Thoughts
“I learned that courage was not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it. The brave man is not he who does not feel afraid, but he who conquers that fear.”
~ Nelson Mandela
“Inaction breeds doubt and fear. Action breeds confidence and courage. If you want to conquer fear, do not sit home and think about it. Go out and get busy.”
~ Dale Carnegie
“He who is not every day conquering some fear has not learned the secret of life.”
~ Ralph Waldo Emerson
And perhaps my favorite TED talk from modern-day samurai (warrior-scholar) Geoff Thompson:
“Fear is what keeps people ordinary.” ~ Geoff Thompson
Geoff’s thoughts on the people around you are among the best.