The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Prediction markets are a hot topic in Congress.
NEWS: Betr and Smarkets are the latest entries into the prediction market pool.
ROUNDUP: A look at the stories you may have missed.
NEWS: Virginia online casino bill heads to conference committee.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: PMs: Frats, hype bois, and $20B valuations.
STRAY THOUGHTS: The better Animal House clip.
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The Lede: Congress’s Newfound Interest in Prediction Markets
As Straight to the Point has been highlighting, the possibility of Congressional action on prediction markets is no longer close to zero.
In addition to several existing federal bills, three new efforts emerged last week (by my count there are five bills/amendments to bills, filed or proposed, along with six Congressional letters):
The first bill, titled the End Prediction Market Corruption Act, was introduced by Senators Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and “would ban the president, vice president and members of Congress from trading event contracts… It would also limit prediction market activity for senior executive branch officials and impose fines starting at $10,000 for violators.” [Press Release]
The second bill was put forth by two US representatives, Blake Moore (R-UT) and Salud Carbajal (D-CA), who introduced bipartisan legislation, the Event Contract Enforcement Act, that seeks to “strengthen existing law to empower the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to prohibit the listing of contracts for sale related to terrorism, assassination, war, gaming (sports or athletic competitions), or illegal activity.” [Press Release]
The latter was quickly praised by the newly formed anti-prediction market group, Gambling is Not Investing (GINI), and its executive director, Mick Mulvaney:
“Today’s introduction of the Event Contract Enforcement Act is an important step toward reining in these pernicious prediction market operators that flout seriously debated and well-crafted state laws governing sports gambling.
“These so-called prediction markets are nothing more than a backdoor for unregulated gambling. They are unilaterally making online sports gambling widely available to anyone in the country without the consumer protections, age restrictions, and state and local tax benefits that govern legalized sports betting.
“These unsafe and unregulated sports gambling markets are bad for Americans.
“Gambling is Not Investing applauds Congressmen Moore and Carbajal for confronting these risks head-on.”
And then there was Rep. Gabe Vasquez’s (D-NM) proposed amendment to the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026, H.R. 7567. As reported by Pechanga.net, “Vasquez offered an amendment to the Commodity Exchange Act, which reaffirms existing law and regulations confirming that derivative exchanges registered pursuant to the federal Commodity Exchange Act cannot offer event contracts or swaps on sporting events or casino-style games.”
The amendment was not adopted, but it had the support of the Indian Gaming Association (IGA), California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA), and the Washington Indian Gaming Association (WIGA), which released the following statement:
“Tribal Nations and the Indian gaming industry are in full support of Representative Gabe Vasquez’s amendment to reaffirm that federal commodities law cannot be used to authorize unlicensed sports betting under the guise of so-called futures or derivatives contracts,” said IGA Chairman David Z. Bean. “We thank Representative Vasquez for bringing attention to this matter and are disappointed the Committee did not even allow his amendment to be brought up for a vote. With nearly $330 billion in annual economic impact in the legal and regulated gaming industry, Indian Country speaks with one voice in urging Congress to take action and stop the continuing harms caused by unlicensed and unregulated sports gambling platforms calling themselves prediction markets.”
“For generations, the regulation of gambling, including sports betting, has been rightly reserved for state and tribal governments,” said CNIGA Chairman James Siva. “Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court have long recognized this principle. Yet today, so-called prediction markets are trying to create gaps in federal law and regulation so they can offer nationwide sports betting without licensing, oversight, or consumer protections, including in states like California where sports betting is expressly prohibited and overwhelmingly rejected by the voters.
“Representative Vasquez’s amendment would have reinforced state authority, defended tribal sovereignty, and protected consumers. While this effort did not advance as far as we had hoped, we remain confident that the House Agriculture Committee will soon close this backdoor in the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). Failure to act will only embolden prediction markets to continue disregarding state and tribal law and jeopardize the integrity of the regulated gaming marketplace.”
“Sports event contracts are a reckless expansion of gambling that undermines existing law and regulation,” said Rebecca George, Executive Director, Washington Indian Gaming Association. “For more than three decades, tribal governments in Washington have partnered with state and federal authorities to build a safe and responsible system of tribal gaming. This system has lifted communities out of poverty, restored self-reliance, and contributed to the state economy—adding $7.4 billion and supporting over 52,000 jobs. WIGA stands by Representative Vasquez’s amendment, which defends tribal and state sovereignty and protects consumers from the misuse of federal commodities regulations to bypass carefully crafted gaming laws.”
News: Betr and Smarkets are the Latest PM Entries
When a new opportunity emerges, you can count on many players in the gambling industry to hurry towards it. We are still in a period of total uncertainty, and the prediction market arena is already filled to capacity.
As Straight to the Point warned in August:
“If Kalshi wins in court and the CFTC maintains its current hands-off approach, you can expect dozens of companies to get involved (Polymarket’s $112M acquisition of QCEX in 2025 to re-enter the US, FanDuel’s partnership with CME, and DraftKings, PrizePicks, and Underdog registering with the National Futures Association), and more competition means less meat on the bone... Another factor is that if prediction markets are authorized, it won’t be long before everyone and their cousin shows up with their hand out asking to wet their beak.”
Six months later, we already have an increasingly-crowded field, with Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Underdog, PrizePicks, Fanatics, Gemini, Webull, DraftKings, FanDuel, Robinhood, Crypto.com, Coinbase, NoVig, ForecastEx, Truth Social, and more.
And as I noted in February, a lot of new players are getting into the space.
Plus500: The FTSE 250-listed fintech broker announced its expansion into prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi.
Crypto.com: Launched OG, a standalone US prediction markets platform focused on sports events, with plans to introduce margin trading (see above).
Coinbase: Fully rolled out Coinbase Predict across all 50 US states, powered by Kalshi.
Cboe: Announced plans to enter prediction markets, focusing on regulated event contracts.
Hyperliquid: Announced its intention to join the prediction markets sector as a DeFi exchange entrant.
Jupiter: “Solana-based exchange Jupiter is integrating Polymarket for the first time on Solana, aiming to make its platform a more comprehensive on-chain predictions hub.”
Sporttrade [see yesterday’s newsletter]: Submitted applications to the CFTC to become a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO).
And now we have two more, Smarkets and Betr.
You can find the full Betr press release here.
As analyst Chris Lynch put it: “At one point, there were over 50 online sports betting brands - anyone remember Maximbet? Feels similar with there being many entrants but a very short list of winners in the PM space.”
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Roundup: So Much News; So Little Newsletter Space
FanDuel President departing after eight years [Sportico]: After leading FanDuel’s sports division for eight years, Sportico reports that Mike Raffensperger, “is leaving the company before the end of the month, according to a source familiar with the plan.” Sportico went on to report that “Raffensperger sent an internal memo announcing the decision to colleagues this week… His exit is believed to be a personal decision unrelated to how the company is performing, the source said.”
Alberta launch timeline likely in Spring/Summer [Gaming News Canada]: Dan Keene, the interim CEO of the Alberta iGaming Corporation, told Gaming News Canada the province is targeting a Spring/Summer launch: “We’re targeting a spring/summer launch and there’s just tremendous momentum that’s happening. So stay tuned.”
Baltimore sues sweepstakes casino operators [Covers.com]: “Baltimore officials filed a lawsuit accusing several social casino companies of running illegal online gambling platforms accessible to city residents, law firm DiCello Levitt announced Wednesday… The complaint alleges the operators violated Baltimore’s Consumer Protection Ordinance by presenting gambling products as legal sweepstakes casinos.” As attorney Daniel Wallach noted on X: “The City of Baltimore has sued sweepstakes casino giants VGW, Stake, McLuck, Pulsz, High 5 and Blazesoft for operating illegal gambling enterprises in violation of Maryland law; seeks disgorgement of ill-gotten gains, restitution, civil penalties, and injunctive relief.” Recall that Baltimore has also sued licensed sports betting operators.
UFC names Bet365 official sports betting partner [Press Release]: Bet365 has entered into a partnership with the UFC, making it the Official Sports Betting Partner across the United States and Canada. Per the press release, “As part of the agreement, bet365 has integrated involvement in every UFC event during the partnership term, delivering a premium and immersive betting experience for fans through a range of broadcast, digital, and live-event touchpoints. The partnership features sportsbook integrations throughout UFC broadcasts, including on-screen betting tickers, fighter odds, intro odds, and same-game parlay features, giving fans real-time insights and dynamic wagering opportunities tied directly to the action.”
News: VA iCasino Bill Heads to Conference Committee
The Virginia House and Senate have passed similar, but not identical, online casino legalization bills, setting up a frenzied attempt to reach an agreement in conference committee before the legislature adjourns on March 14.
So, what are the differences? The key differences are around tax allocations, with HB161 emphasizing lottery protection and higher problem gambling funding, with most revenue to the general fund. SB118 directs more to education and creates a dedicated regulatory fund, with less to problem gambling.
HB 161 calls for 5% of funds to go to the Problem Gambling Treatment and Support Fund. SB 118 requires just 2%.
HB 161 also calls for 6% to go to the new Internet Lottery Hold Harmless Fund. SB 118 has no such provision.
SB 118 creates the Modern Public Education Fund and dedicates 95% of tax revenue to it.
Minor Differences include:
SB118 explicitly states that the subsection is “not intended to favor any particular labor organization or type of labor-management relationship.” HB161 does not include this language.
HB161 defines it with requirements for diversity, equity, and inclusion plans focused on small businesses and disadvantaged enterprises. SB118 expands this to include options for minority investment plans and participation of minority individuals/minority-owned businesses in the platform.
Further, at least currently, both bills contain a reenactment clause, that would require both chambers to pass the bill again next year before it is officially authorized. That makes passage in 2026 more of a hollow victory.
And as STTP has noted, there are still questions about Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s level of buy-in:
On February 11, the Spanberger administration called on the legislature to create a singular gambling regulatory body before it tackles online casinos, skill games, and other expansions.
Secretary of Agriculture and Forestry Katie Frazier said, “Governor Spanberger is deeply concerned about any discussions of gaming expansion in Virginia without first establishing a single entity with clear authority, consistent standards and strong compliance and enforcement capabilities.”
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
After reporting that prediction markets are targeting college students (per the WSJ, “Both companies have begun splashing cash on campuses. Polymarket has offered to pay fraternities, in exchange for signing up users, money that can be spent on throwing “epic parties”—one frat raised $30,510 over a two-week period.”), and finding a new, even more scandalous angle on the previously reported 15-year-old influencer that was given a Kalshi badge, the WSJ is reporting that the two prediction market behemoths, Kalshi and Polymarket, are trying to raise funding at a $20 billion valuation.
The valuation is, and rightfully so, raising eyebrows:
As I said on X, “Recall what people were willing to pay for legacy sports betting platforms and third skin market access in 2019.”
And as Jessica Welman posted on X about the 15-year-old influencer:
And as Philip Atkinson said, we need serious people at the helm of these multi-billion-dollar ships:
“Every time I see a hype boi tweet from one of the accounts promoting these companies (and recently it has even been employees!) I’m left wondering whether this is smart UGC adjacent marketing hoovering up the sort of customers who respond to it, or whether it is a sign of an unserious company. The former is a pretty interesting strategy (at least for those of us close to this space) - a sort of less grey take on the Rainbet/Stake approach. If it is the latter, then it’s much harder to argue the bull case.”
Stray Thoughts
Today’s headline somehow works with The Lede, the first News entry, and the Stray Thoughts frat story.
This is just a better clip than the “Thank you sir, may I have another,” bit: