The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Super Bowl betting estimates point to another new record.
BEYOND the HEADLINE: NFL prohibits prediction market ads.
NEWS: Massachusetts regulators vote against crypto conversions.
BEYOND the HEADLINE: The case for regulated crypto payments.
NEWS: The NCPG launches a new national helpline.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Another day; another lawsuit.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Another push for Thursday’s webinar.
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The Lede: Super Bowl (Legal) Betting Could Eclipse $1.7B
Super Bowl betting projections is one of the stories that everyone but me seems to care about, but as I do every year, I will do my part and give you a rundown of what people are forecasting, which as usual, are very similar.
Legal Sports Report/Sports Betting Alliance
In its annual breakdown (this year LSR partnered with the Sports Betting Alliance), Legal Sports Report’s Eric Ramsey is forecasting $1.71 billion in legal wagers across the US.
LSR pointed to the big “unknown” this year: Prediction markets.
“Perhaps the most significant change in the Super Bowl betting landscape stems from renewed uncertainty over what even constitutes a bet.
“Prediction markets now offer access to an emerging form of Super Bowl speculation across all 50 states, including those like California without legal sports betting by definition. The effect of these prediction markets on traditional Super Bowl betting is by far the biggest unknown in this year’s outlook… While prediction markets are unlikely to replace sports betting, they are proving to be a suitable substitute for those without a state-regulated option. And they will drastically increase Americans’ total financial exposure to the game this year.”
Ramsey also went on Dustin Gouker’s The Closing Line Podcast to discuss the projections and the potential impact of prediction markets.
American Gaming Association
“The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates that Americans will wager a record $1.76 billion legally on Super Bowl LX. This figure reflects the continued growth and strength of the legal, state- and tribal-regulated sports betting market.”
Of interest to my readers, the AGA used the bulk of the press release on the Super Bowl to highlight the presence of prediction markets:
“A new AGA study shows that prediction markets are confusing consumers by promoting sports betting as an investment rather than entertainment, underscoring concerns about how these products are marketed and their lack of responsible gaming tools.”
This led to a public social media spat between the AGA and the recently formed prediction market trade group, The Coalition for Prediction Markets:
As I previously reported in November (just ahead of G2E), The AGA website has added a lost tax revenue tracker:
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming is estimating a slightly lower total: $1.6 billion. According to Chris Krafcik, a managing director at EKG, while it’s still a new record and a 10% increase from last year, growth is slowing.
Beyond the Headline: Don’t Expect to See Prediction Market Super Bowl Ads
As first reported by Front Office Sports, prediction markets, which have not been allowed all season, “are among the list of ‘prohibited categories’ for the Super Bowl, a source familiar with the matter tells Front Office Sports.”
While the NHL, MLS, and UFC have cozied up to prediction markets, the NFL (along with other sports leagues) has been keeping them at arm’s length.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, said in December: “[The NFL] likes to be first in the market in a lot of things, but in a lot of things, we’re willing to say, ‘We’re going to let things play out. We’re going to decide, is this something we want to do?’”
In a letter from August, obtained by Front Office Sports, MLB and the MLBPA wrote to players that, “Several companies (including Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, among others) are now offering what they call ‘prediction markets,’ which allow members of the public to risk money on the outcome of specific events, including baseball and other sporting events.”
And then there is the PGA, which seems to have kyboshed a deal between Bryson DeChambeau and Kalshi:
News: Are Crypto Options Coming to Legal Sportsbooks?
In December, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission discussed DraftKings’ desire to convert crypto into cash to facilitate deposits. After 30 minutes (the video below should be cued up to the discussion) the MGC voted 5-0 against allowing these conversions, with Commissioner Eileen O’Brien doubting she would change her mind during the remainder of her tenure.
Massachusetts officially banned these transactions on December 19.
Despite the MGC’s hesitance, DraftKings plans to rollout this feature in Illinois, Kentucky, New Hampshire and Vermont in the near future. And that’s where things could get dicey for DraftKings, as the Massachusetts prohibition extends to other jurisdictions, the topic came up again in a meeting last week.
And as SBC Americas noted, “While cryptocurrency is not widely used in licensed, state-regulated sports betting in the U.S., some states do allow it. Wyoming was an early adopter, having permitted crypto as a wagering funding method since 2021, while Colorado and Virginia’s gaming regulators began allowing cryptocurrency conversions for deposits in 2022.”
Recall that DraftKings ran afoul of the MGC over a similar credit card prohibition when customers deposited with credit cards in other states but then placed bets in Massachusetts.
So what exactly is DraftKings planning to offer?
Importantly, it’s not looking to accept crypto deposits, rather it would convert a customer’s cryptocurrency into USD.
Of note, Edge Markets (a newsletter sponsor) recently announced it is now allowing crypto-to-USD conversions for betting and gaming transactions — It doesn’t appear that DraftKings is working with Edge, but the process is almost certainly the same.
STTP reached out to Edge CEO Seni Thomas this weekend for his thoughts on the MGC’s decision. As Thomas noted, these conversions are not new in the banking sphere, and Edge’s process is even more secure and compliant:
“Anyone can move crypto to fiat via a standard bank account, such as Chase in the US, and then use those funds via a bank-to-bank transfer or a debit card to fund any gaming activity. For a land-based user, they could simply withdraw cash. This has already been happening since online gambling was legalized.
“We take it one step further: Enabling only regulated exchanges and whitelisting ETC, BTC, and Stables, which are considered commodities and are extremely transparent for tracing.”
What this means is the MGC cannot stop customers from converting crypto to USD and then using that money to fund their gambling activities. What they can do is prevent a licensed operator from doing it in-house. So, even where regulators disallow operators from handling crypto to fiat conversions, they will still take place, and they are completely above board and legal.
As Thomas told STTP, “We are a neo-bank account and not a regulated gaming entity. We have the ability under federal law to launch this feature across all 50 states.”
Thomas explained the conversion process during an STTP podcast appearance back in September 2025, when he first announced the company’s efforts to add this feature, and why some of the concerns around these transactions are a bit overblown:
“We had to work with a number of partners in the crypto space to basically create a system where we can basically have pre-approved, whitelisted wallets which are primarily linked to exchanges — like the crypto.com, blockchain.com, and the Coinbase’s of the world…
“You have to authenticate into Coinbase. Coinbase actually then sends us all the user’s KYC information, which we match up to what we’ve collected with us as well.
“So this always has to be a me-to-me transfer. You can’t move it from another account that’s not controlled by you… It’s the exact same pathway we currently use for our personal checking linkage…
“So by on-ramp, what we mean is that we only accept the fiat itself. So we never transact in crypto ourselves. We never hold it. And so we have a number of kind of partners that are actually doing this conversion on the back end. We’re actually just receiving the USD.”
Beyond the Headline: The Case for Crypto
When I spoke with Edge Markets CEO Seni Thomas in September he noted that the government’s successes in shutting down offshore sites was largely due to creating financial chokepoints, which is much harder in the crypto era: “That’s no longer the case… and the primary reason for that is crypto.”
As Thomas noted in September, crypto isn’t just an offshore thing anymore: “Whether it’s prediction markets or social casino sweeps… They have had a lot more leeway in being able to engage with these types of products. And that’s left some of the traditional operators on the back foot.”
And when I spoke with him this weekend he noted, “You can directly fund into Kalshi or other prediction markets with crypto. At this stage, I believe 100% of major crypto exchanges have launched or announced a predictions product.”
As Thomas put it, to get off the “back foot,” licensed operators “need to work with the related regulators to use a system they are comfortable with, which we completely support.”
And lest you think this is an online gambling issue, Thomas said, “One specific use case that we are excited about is on the land-based side, where the only option to access funds outside of banking hours is credit card advances, and regulated crypto is a far more transparent and secure funding method than cash.”
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Responsible and Problem Gambling News
NCPG’s New National Problem Gambling Helpline
The National Council of Problem Gambling (NCPG) has launched a new national problem gambling helpline number after it lost control of the 1-800-GAMBLER helpline number late last year (STTP detailed the fight between NCPG here and my thoughts on the optics of the fight and the helpline’s importance here).
Operators have noted the challenges they have had with the shift from 1-800-GAMBLER back to the NCPG’s previous helpline and/or state resources.
From the press release:
“The National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) today announced it has adopted 1-800-MY-RESET as the new National Problem Gambling Helpline™ number, designed to be memorable and easily accessible for the public. 1-800-MY-RESET is now live and operational to receive calls.”
Kindbridge Partners with Colorado Psychiatry Clinic
Two Colorado-based companies, Kindbridge Behavioral Health and Axis Integrated Mental Health have “announced a new partnership to expand access to care for Coloradans struggling with gambling addiction and related mental health conditions.”
The press release notes, “This partnership helps fill that gap by offering an integrated model that combines Kindbridge’s gambling-specific therapy with Axis’s advanced psychiatric care,” which includes, “Deep TMS (Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation): A non-invasive, drug-free treatment targeting brain networks involved in mood regulation and impulse control. Spravato (esketamine): An FDA-approved nasal spray for treatment-resistant depression.”
Birches Online Addiction Programs are Making a Difference
As reported by InGame (the entire article is well worth a read to see how Birches works and integrates with online gambling operators):
“An external study of Birches Health’s online-gambling addiction program asserts that 85% of patients report improved gambling-disorder symptoms after nine video interventions. The study was conducted via interviews of patients from July 2023 to October 2025.”
“The predominant form of treatment and support for individuals who are struggling from gambling in the U.S. is a 12-step program and those programs over the past 50 years have truly saved lives,” Birches CEO Elliott Rapaport told InGame. “However, today you’re seeing a bunch of 18- to 40-year-olds who refuse to enter the local community center basement, because they’re not comfortable there. So there’s space for all modalities of treatment.”
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Ho hum, just another prediction market lawsuit to keep tabs on:
Of interest, like Massachusetts vs. Kalshi, Nevada went on the offensive against Coinbase:
Stray Thoughts
There is still time to register for Thursday’s webinar on what 2026 has in store for sports betting and online gambling, hosted by the American Institute for Boys and Men (click the image below to register for free).
Here’s the description of the webinar from AIBM:
“Sports betting in America is in a state of flux. The last twelve months have seen the rise of sports prediction market contracts, changes in betting options and gambling taxes, and the stubborn persistence of unlicensed operators. Between the possibility of new regulation, legislation, and ongoing lawsuits, the next twelve months may bring just as much change as the last twelve. What, exactly, is on the horizon for American sports betting?”