Straight to the Point will be taking a short break this holiday weekend.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Former CFTC commissioner questions agency’s ability to oversee prediction markets.
ROUNDUP: A look at the stories you may have missed.
NEWS: AGA and IGA urge Congress to add prediction markets to Crypto bill.
VIEWS: Retail sportsbooks continue to drop like flies.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Spitting knowledge.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Keep away from me.
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The Lede: Former Commissioner Questions CFTC’s Capability
A former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commissioner is saying something Straight to the Point has been asking for over a year: Is the CFTC capable of overseeing prediction markets?
“The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is going through one of the biggest upheavals in its 50-year history as it takes on prediction markets and braces for a new role as crypto cop, but those efforts will fall short without more cash or personnel, agency veterans say.
“These departures included the loss of seasoned, senior, veteran lawyers and economists in key areas of the commission’s divisions responsible for licensing, supervision, oversight, and enforcement,” said former Democratic CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson, now a law professor at George Washington University.
As I wrote last May:
“No matter how on board the CFTC is with sports contracts, one has to wonder if it’s equipped or has the appetite to handle it. Is hiring hundreds of experts to oversee sports contracts, which at the top-end might account for $100 billion of the $300 trillion in trades you oversee, worth it?”
And that workforce shortage has led to oversight coming from inside the house, as I wrote about last month:
“CFTC Chairman Michael Selig leaning heavily on the prediction markets to uncover malfeasance, arguing that prediction markets serve as the ‘first line of defense’ against manipulation and insider trading. ‘I think it’s more of a free-market approach than the Biden administration but we’re certainly going to have our exchanges as the first line of defense as our statute requires,’ Selig told CNBC.”
As Bloomberg Law notes, even though the Trump administration is looking to expand the headcount and increase the budget at the agency, the CFTC is woefully unequipped to handle its already burdensome duties. Per Bloomberg Law, the CFTC had a staff of just 551 at the end of March, a drop from 631 last September and 726 at the end of fiscal 2024, according to Office of Personnel Management data.
My estimates put the workforce required to bring prediction market oversight to something near state-level gambling regulation at between 1,000-2,000 employees.
Roundup: So Much News; So Little Newsletter Space
CFTC sues MN after Gov. Walz signs prediction market bill [Press Release]: “The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today filed a lawsuit against Minnesota to block a new state law, signed by Governor Tim Walz, that would make operating or assisting in the operation of a prediction market a criminal felony. The CFTC is seeking a preliminary injunction to stop the law from going into effect on August 1, 2026. ‘This Minnesota law turns lawful operators and participants in prediction markets into felons overnight,’ said CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig. ‘Minnesota farmers have relied on critical hedging products on weather and crop-related events for decades to mitigate their risks. Governor Walz chose to put special interests first and American farmers and innovators last.’”
A new bill looks to curb youth gambling through ad restrictions [Press Release]: “U.S. Senators Katie Britt (R-Ala.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) introduced landmark legislation to combat the rapid and concerning rise in youth gambling. The Gaming Advertisement to Minors Enforcement (GAME) Act would prohibit social media companies and other advertising websites from targeting minors with sports betting through online advertising.” STTP Note: The bill specifically mentions sportsbooks and prediction markets.
Coalition for Prediction Markets hires outside lobbying firm [Compliance+More]: “The Coalition for Prediction Markets has hired Invariant as its first outside lobbying firm, according to a disclosure filed on Friday, covering work on ‘issues related to event contracts regulation and prediction markets.’” The move comes ahead of today’s Congressional hearing in front of the Senate Commerce Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Technology, and Data Privacy.
Anti-prediction market group readies six-figure ad buy [NBC]: In other Congressional hearing news, “A group that says its mission is to serve as a prediction market ‘watchdog’ is launching a six-figure ad buy focused on digital and billboards this week in the Washington, D.C., media market… The group, called FairPredicts, touts itself as a nonpartisan group that holds ‘the prediction market industry accountable.’ It has specifically been critical of Kalshi, one of the largest prediction markets that spent nearly $500,000 in 2026 alone lobbying Congress and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates the industry.”
Kalshi launches demo for margin trading [InGame]: “Kalshi has launched a demo environment for trading on margin and promised real-life margin trades “coming soon” — but at least for now the demo only covers cryptocurrency perpetual futures, not event contracts. It is not clear whether perpetual futures might be a first step toward leveraged trading on a range of Kalshi’s products including event contracts, or if the prediction market intends to only offer margin on perpetuals for the foreseeable future.”
News: AGA and IGA Send Letter to Congress
As Congress continues to work on the CLARITY Act, the American Gaming Association (AGA) and Indian Gaming Association (IGA) are once again calling on Congress to also consider prohibiting sports betting and casino-style gaming on prediction markets.
The AGA and IGA sent a similar letter in January, urging Congress to rein in sports contracts on prediction markets.
As reported by CNBC: “On Thursday, the Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees are expected to hold hearings on their respective parts of the crypto bill, where they might revise the text.”
As it did in January, the two groups argue that “CFTC-registered prediction markets are indistinguishable from sports betting… without the licensing, consumer protections, integrity safeguards, tax contributions, or local accountability required under state and tribal gaming frameworks.”
The letter also touches on the rapid expansion of prediction market contract types and the CFTC’s unwillingness to rein the products in:
“Since their launch, trading volume and product breadth have accelerated, expanding beyond simple game outcomes into bets on individual player performance, multi-leg wagers, and other products that heighten risks of manipulation and consumer harm.”
“It has also become abundantly clear in recent months that the CFTC has no intention of enforcing its longstanding rules that prohibit sports betting contracts, nor will it defer to the courts to decide these matters as Chairman Selig promised during his Senate confirmation hearing last November. In fact, in recent months the CFTC has moved from passive facilitator – simply allowing platforms to self-certify sports betting contracts – toward actively rewriting its rules in an attempt to explicitly authorize these products.”
Here is the full letter:
Dear Members of the United States Senate and House of Representatives,
On behalf of the American Gaming Association (AGA) and the Indian Gaming Association (IGA), we write to follow up on our January 12, 2026 letter regarding the rapid expansion of sports event contracts offered through Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-registered prediction markets. Since then, the need for congressional action has become even more evident and more urgent. As Congress considers cryptocurrency market structure legislation, we strongly urge inclusion of explicit language to make it crystal clear that sports betting and casino-style gambling cannot be conducted nationwide through federally registered platforms under the guise of “event contracts.”
Together, our associations represent the legal, regulated gaming industry in the United States, which generates $329 billion in annual economic impact, produces $53 billion in tax revenue, and supports 1.8 million jobs. Our industry operates under strict state and tribal oversight and a longstanding American framework that prioritizes local control, transparency, integrity, and responsible gaming. Where sports betting has been legalized, states and tribes impose strong guardrails to protect consumers and the public.
In contrast, so-called “sports event contracts” offered by CFTC-registered prediction markets are indistinguishable from sports betting yet are being made available nationwide—often to users 18 and older—without the licensing, consumer protections, integrity safeguards, tax contributions, or local accountability required under state and tribal gaming frameworks. Since their launch, trading volume and product breadth have accelerated, expanding beyond simple game outcomes into bets on individual player performance, multi-leg wagers, and other products that heighten risks of manipulation and consumer harm. Platforms continue to market and expand these products with increasing speed, even as state attorneys general, regulators, tribes, and other stakeholders have raised objections that the contracts violate state law and undermine tribal sovereignty.
It has also become abundantly clear in recent months that the CFTC has no intention of enforcing its longstanding rules that prohibit sports betting contracts, nor will it defer to the courts to decide these matters as Chairman Selig promised during his Senate confirmation hearing last November. In fact, in recent months the CFTC has moved from passive facilitator – simply allowing platforms to self-certify sports betting contracts – toward actively rewriting its rules in an attempt to explicitly authorize these products. The Commission has also now adopted an aggressive legal position against states – forcing them into costly, defensive litigation to protect voter-approved laws, regulatory regimes, and tribal exclusivity. The resources being expended on legal bills could otherwise support community priorities. Each month that unregulated sports event contracts remain available nationwide, states and tribes lose significant tax and revenue streams that fund schools, infrastructure, and public safety, and consumers are exposed to products lacking the protections that accompany regulated gaming.
The harms presented by unchecked prediction markets are real and escalating, and momentum for congressional action is growing. The Senate recently adopted a rule prohibiting senators and Senate staff from trading on prediction markets, reflecting recognition that these products raise serious integrity and insider trading concerns. Senators Schiff and Curtis have also introduced bipartisan legislation—the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act—to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing event contracts involving sports and casino-style games. We strongly support that effort and believe the time has come for Congress to provide unambiguous direction within cryptocurrency market structure legislation.Before handing the CFTC more authorities over digital assets, Congress should reaffirm longstanding congressional intent to prevent gambling through our nation’s financial markets. This will protect consumers, safeguard the integrity of both sports and financial markets, preserve the authority of states and tribes to regulate gaming within their jurisdictions, and better position the CFTC to effectively regulate cryptocurrency markets.
We stand ready to work with you on appropriate language and appreciate your consideration.
Sincerely,
William C. Miller Jr, President and CEO, American Gaming Association
David Z. Bean, Chairman, Indian Gaming Association
Views: DraftKings Shutters Wrigley Field Sportsbook
DraftKings is shuttering its Wrigley Field sportsbook on May 31, citing Illinois sports betting taxes as one of the factors — Illinois increased its sports betting tax from 15% to a tiered structure that goes as high as 40% in 2024, added a per-wager fee ($.25 or $.50) and saw the city of Chicago add its own 10.25% tax in 2025.
Per the Chicago Tribune: “DraftKings has made the decision to discontinue onsite sportsbook operations at DraftKings Sportsbook at Wrigley Field following a review of our retail presence in Illinois,” the company said in a statement. “The venue itself will remain open, but in-person sports betting will no longer be offered at the location.”
Setting aside the financial burdens, there simply isn’t much there there when it comes to retail sportsbooks. Once again, Straight to the Point was way ahead of the curve, as I wrote about the “slow death of retail sportsbooks,” nearly a year ago:
“As I said about horse racing last week, maybe it’s time to rethink the way physical sportsbooks are packaged to the consumer. If the revenue is coming from bets, there is a significant problem. A physical sportsbook can’t compete with a mobile app.
“Even when they are inside a physical sportsbook, many bettors will turn to their phones to place wagers. Mobile betting helps them skip long lines, eliminates the need for carrying cash, and provides access to a broader range of betting options, simplified bet tracking (no physical tickets), and updated odds.
“Physical sportsbooks need to offer more than just a betting counter and large TVs. They need to provide an experience that bettors are willing to pay (through the nose) for.”
I wasn’t the only one sounding the retail sports betting venue klaxon:
I’d also be curious to see how much money was spent wasted on retail sportsbooks and the deals to get them into these stadiums and arenas. According to my quick searches, the DraftKings Sportsbook at Wrigley Field was part of a larger 10-year, $100 million deal with the Chicago Cubs, with the sportsbook itself costing around $9 million to construct. That’s the cost for one of these projects, albeit, probably one of the more expensive.
I wonder if we will ever update the phrase ‘gone the way of the dodo’ to ‘gone the way of the retail sportsbook.’
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Phillip Atkinson knows a thing or two about peer-to-peer online gambling, and the CEO of Unrational Games took to X to drop some truth bombs about the hornet’s nest debate created by DraftKings cofounder Matt Kalish (reported on yesterday).
Basically, whenever you facilitate gambling between two people/entities, you have to understand that their goals are wildly different than yours. As I said in the past:
“The problem P2P gambling has always had is that the sharks don’t care about the ecosystem’s health; that’s the operator’s problem. They’re not into sustainable fishing. They’ll fish until there’s nothing left, leaving the pond empty and the operator scrambling to restock it (at massive costs).”
You can check out my podcast with Phillip Atkinson here:
Episode 67: Everything Old Is New Again with Philip Atkinson
“I now understand that you make money sometimes in the gray area and you sort of have to be willing to believe what other people don’t believe.” ~ Philip Atkinson
Stray Thoughts
Earlier this week I referenced Geoff Thompson’s thoughts on the people you surround yourself with — are they supportive or jealous when you try to grow?
Which brings me to the traditional martial arts world, which is a very strange place.
It’s home to many genuinely great people, yet it’s also swimming in ego and politics, with cherry-picked traditions and formalities. People with fancy titles who have little to no connection to you (maybe they do the same style or share an instructor lineage) will happily dispense unsolicited opinions on how you should train, teach, and run your school. And to be honest, most of the time they have no financial motive, it’s a pure power trip.
Anyone older or higher-ranked expects, nay demands, something between acquiescence and obedience. They’re not happy with mere courtesy. After all, their instructor’s instructor’s instructor studied under a god-like master (who died over a century ago and whom they’ve never met), which apparently makes them a demi-god by proxy.
Sometimes the advice is sincere and occasionally useful, but nine times out of ten it’s fake tradition, made-up rules, and an attempt at cult-like indoctrination.
As Iain Abernethy puts it, martial arts is the only activity where its practitioners believe it was perfected a hundred years ago.
My goal from the start was to steer clear of that nonsense and surround myself and my school with like-minded people. So far, so good. But there are always a few from the old guard hanging around on the periphery.
STTP Note: I was torn between Pantera’s Walk or Godsmack’s Keep Away, so go listen to both.