The Weekender: Can Arnold Ventures Change Responsible Gambling
There's a new entity in the responsible gambling space, Arnold Ventures, which recently awarded $2.6 million in grants to research the impact of legal online gambling.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Can Arnold Ventures help fix responsible gambling?
ON the HORIZON: This week’s podcast.
THE READING LIST: A look at the articles Straight to the Point is reading.
NEWSLETTER ROUNDUP: The best of the best in gambling newsletters.
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The Lede: A New Day for Responsible Gambling
There is a new participant in the responsible gambling/problem gambling space: Arnold Ventures. And this is the type of research and perspective I can get behind.
As reported by CNBC, “John and Laura Arnold, billionaire philanthropists and co-founders of Arnold Ventures, are awarding $2.6 million in previously unreported research grants to universities to study the risks of online sports betting.”
Arnold Ventures has been keenly interested in the expansion of legal gambling for some time, often opining on news on social media. Earlier this year, it teamed up with The American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM) to launch a Sports Betting Policy Hub “to curate research, track policy as it develops, and connect experts working on the issue.” Arnold Ventures seeded the project with a $2 million grant.
So why am I hopeful Arnold Ventures will be different from previous research?
First, there is far more transparency in both the scope and the expected timeline (see the grants below). One of my core complaints is we hear about research funding, but never hear who or what is being funded, and only find out five years later when the paper is finally published.
“If you continually study a problem and the conclusion you always reach is the need for more (more funding, more research, more certifications, more training, more education), you might need to examine whether you’re trying to solve a real problem or trying to solve a problem that doesn’t exist.”
Second, the scope of each project is narrowly defined BEFORE the research is carried out. What we typically get is broad research on impacts, where researchers can seek findings based on results.
“Every study concludes with a note that more studies are required. Every bit of funding is called a first step. Every new policy (no matter how ridiculous) is lauded. Every talking point delivered is instantly adopted and shared wide and far. Every transgression is a sign of an underlying and more pervasive problem. Every (overly expensive) training requires, you guessed it, another training.
“And honestly, what have we learned? What measurable progress has been made in reducing harm? Is anyone even measuring?”
Finally, Arnold Ventures is able to bypass the usual RG/PG gatekeepers.
“Look at any RG campaign of the past few years and the only noticeable difference from older campaigns is that they cost more money. But we’re supposed to believe they will deliver different results. It’s time for a new approach—an approach that requires breaking through the bubble the industry has encased itself in… The saying, when you only have a hammer, everything starts to look like a nail, is very on point for the current discussion around responsible and problem gambling.
Behavioral Insights (US) Inc. (2026 – 2027): This project examines how people perceive the likelihood of winning “parlay” bets and how they react to “near misses”, where a parlay bet fails by just one leg. It also tests whether targeted messages following “near misses” can interrupt play and influence real-time betting behavior among approximately 12,000 participants.
University of Wisconsin System (2026 – 2028): This project examines how financial shocks and betting outcomes, including wins, losses, and promotional incentives, shape betting behavior over time. It analyzes within-person changes to understand how individuals respond dynamically to gambling experiences.
West Virginia University Foundation, Inc. (2026 – 2029): This study investigates “loss-chasing” behavior in online sports betting markets following near misses and unexpected outcomes. It evaluates how these events influence gambling expenditures and risk-taking behavior.
University of California, Los Angeles (2026 – 2028): This study evaluates how exposure to sports betting advertising affects consumer behavior, including app downloads and engagement. Using quasi-experimental methods, the research estimates causal impacts of advertising intensity on betting participation.
University of Wisconsin – Madison (2026 – 2027): This quasi-experimental study examines how legalized sports betting affects credit card delinquency rates across states. It also analyzes spillover effects in neighboring states where sports betting remains illegal, providing insight into cross-border financial impacts.
University of New Hampshire (2026 – 2028): This study analyzes how gaining or losing access to legal sports betting through interstate migration affects individuals’ financial outcomes. It focuses on changes in credit health and financial distress as people move between states with different legal regimes.
Princeton University (2026 – 2028): This research examines the impact of legalized sports betting on housing and financial insecurity among renters. It evaluates outcomes such as eviction filings and foreclosure rates using quasi-experimental methods.
University of Texas at Austin (2026 – 2027): This study analyzes how legalized sports betting influences family well-being, with a focus on marriage rates. It uses quasi-experimental methods to estimate how changes in gambling access affect household formation decisions.
University of Pennsylvania (2026 – 2028): This project examines whether the legalization of sports betting is associated with changes in suicide rates across states. It uses a staggered difference-in-differences design to isolate causal effects over time.
Vanderbilt University Medical Center (2026 – 2027): This research examines whether access to legalized online sports betting is associated with changes in mental health diagnoses, prescription rates, and care utilization.
Indiana University (2026 – 2029): This project evaluates how legalized sports betting affects behavioral health care spending and broader indicators of social well-being. It assesses whether expanded access to betting is associated with changes in treatment utilization and health-related expenditures.
Urban Institute (2026 – 2029): This study evaluates how legalized sports betting affects state tax revenues. It examines fiscal outcomes across jurisdictions to assess whether projected revenue gains materialize over time.
On the Horizon: A Peek Into the Future at STTP
On Saturday, I’ll release my podcast episode with the Lost Creonte Substack. The conversation centers around Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but regular readers (and podcast listeners) know there are a lot of parallels with the gambling industry, so whether you’re into martial arts or not, this is a great listen.
The Reading List: Suggested Reading from STTP
Here’s why two billionaires want to take the Strip’s biggest casino companies private [Howard Stutz, Las Vegas Independent]
FanDuel sent personal message from Phillies star Bryce Harper to customer with gambling addiction [David Gambacorta, Philadelphia Inquirer] One of the wildest stories I’ve seen, and I’ve seen some wild and inexplicable ones.
Susquehanna Analyst: Prediction Markets Will Be Biggest World Cup Winners [Jill R. Dorson, InGame]
The Coming Supreme Court Showdown Over Prediction Markets [Steve Ruddock, City Journal]
Trading Cards Are the New Lottery Tickets. ‘Brother, It’s Gambling!’ [Nick Devor, Barron’s] 💲
Billionaire VGW founder Laurence Escalante resigns [Primrose Riordan, Australian Financial Review]
Gambling: The Hidden Addiction [Dan Real, LinkedIn]
