The Weekender: Sweeps Hearings and Betting Estimates
All eyes are on the Super Bowl today, but it's not just for the action on the field. A sweepstakes bill in Connecticut will have a hearing on Friday.
The Bulletin Board
ABOVE the FOLD: A look at the biggest story of this week and next week.
— Super Bowl betting estimates from EKG, LSR, H2, AGA, and JMP.
— States schedule hearings on sweepstakes bills.
HOUSEKEEPING: Podcasts, featured articles, and more from yours truly.
PAID SUBSCRIBER BONUS: An excerpt from STTP Consulting’s The Forecast, a premium subscription service that provides quarterly reports and weekly updates on the US online gambling sector
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Look Back: Five Super Bowl Betting Estimates
Last year’s Super Bowl betting tally from legal US markets was around $1.3 billion, and every analyst believes this year’s game, Super Bowl LIX, will see even more wagers. Several analysts, firms, and organizations have released projections for the total wagering on the event, which range from $1.4 billion to $1.75 billion.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) has the most conservative estimate, forecasting that approximately $1.4 billion will be staked on the game.
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (a newsletter sponsor) and Legal Sports Report’s Eric Ramsey forecast $1.5 billion in wagers on the matchup pitting the Kansas City Chiefs against the Philadelphia Eagles.
H2 Gambling Capital, known for its comprehensive gaming market analysis, is forecasting a slightly higher figure at $1.6 billion.
The analysts at JMP Securities are the most bullish at $1.75 billion.
Look Ahead: Sweepstakes Hearing in Connecticut on Friday
Maryland was the first state to schedule a hearing on its sweepstakes bills (h/t Daniel Wallach). Both bills will be discussed in committee hearings: SB 860 (one of 16 bills) on March 5 at 1 PM and HB 1140 on March 6 at 1 PM (one of four bills).
Still, Connecticut will beat it to the punch. On Friday, it will hold a hearing to discuss SB 1235, a bill that bans sweepstakes, lottery courier services, and wagers on Connecticut intercollegiate teams (except for tournaments), boxing, and MMA. The legislation also restricts certain types of advertising.
The hearing could be two minutes or two hours, and while I don’t need more news to cover, I’m really hoping for the latter.
Housekeeping
PODCASTS: This week’s guest on the Talking Shop Podcast was Allan Stone, the co-founder of Acquire.bet.
“Allan and I talked about his many years working behind the scenes in the affiliate industry and what several years working outside of gambling taught him about building relationships with customers.
“We also discussed Google's recent changes, which heavily impacted gambling affiliates, and how the entire industry needs to shift to what Allan calls “mid-funnel,” which he describes as “anywhere else besides high intent search where you can buy inventory, but you're buying on a very targeted and surgical basis.”
Episode 39: Modernizing the Digital Acquisition Funnel with Allan Stone
“You've got a lot of guys doing top-of-funnels: branded TV, national reach, above-the-line type stuff. And then the affiliate, the term affiliate in this space, has been sort of relegated to that bottom of the funnel, high intense search-driven traffic. If you look outside this vertical, you see this shift of dollars from that sort of bottom-of-funnel low-end tech… you're seeing the operators expand and open up those marketing dollars into that mid-funnel.”
COLUMNS: This week’s featured column took a look at the brewing fight between licensed sportsbooks and prediction markets, which are encroaching further and further on the former’s territory:
“The industry was silent when election markets went live, but sports is an altogether different animal and is causing tension between existing licensed sportsbooks and prediction markets.”
Here's A Prediction For You
Prediction markets are elbowing their way into the domain of licensed online gambling operators, setting the stage for an intriguing showdown that is not just about new competition but also about challenging the regulatory and operational norms that have shaped legal sports betting in the US.
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