We Are In The End Game Now

MLB is the second major professional sports league to partner with a prediction market, signing a reported three-year, $300 million deal with Polymarket.

Steve Ruddock

Mar 23, 2026

The Bulletin Board

THE LEDE: MLB signs a multiyear agreement with Polymarket.
QUICK HITTER: NCAA sues DraftKings over trademark infringement.
QUICK HITTER: Kalshi is taking a lot of L’s in Nevada.
ROUNDUP: A look at the stories you may have missed.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Tweets without context.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Seven levels of inside jokes.

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The Lede: MLB Jumps Into the Prediction Market Pool

There’s a boatload of prediction market news pretty much every day, but Major League Baseball’s (MLB) deal with Polymarket, announced Thursday, is one that I would certainly place in the significant development category.

Per Front Office Sports, MLB and Polymarket have entered into a three-year deal with Polymarket paying somewhere between $150-$300 million:

“Under the deal, Polymarket will become the exclusive prediction-market partner of MLB and will be the only platform allowed to use team logos and marks, sources say.”

Per ESPN’s David Purdum, “The MLB-Polymarket deal includes language that would void the partnership if courts were to rule that prediction markets violate state law, according to a league source.”

Sportico also added some details about the scope of the deal:

“But the bulk of the agreement doesn’t cover that Polymarket. It’s focused on Polymarket’s yet to be fully launched U.S. prediction market exchange, rather than Polymarket’s separate crypto-based international exchange, for which the company is widely known. While MLB has touted the agreement as necessary to enhance integrity standards in prediction markets, giving it the right to ‘restrict markets that present an integrity risk,’ this provision has limited meaning right now. Polymarket’s much-larger international exchange is not subject to the same terms of the deal.”

And according to Sports Business Journal, “While Polymarket and the exchanges it powers will be the only ones granted use of MLB and club marks on its app, a second tier of yet-to-be-designated authorized operators will be able to sign team sponsorships and advertise during national and local game broadcasts, if they agree to MLB’s integrity provisions.”

Also on Thursday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and MLB announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), “the first of its kind between the CFTC and a professional sports league.”

From the press release:

“The MOU establishes a framework for the CFTC and MLB to discuss, cooperate, and exchange information concerning issues of common interest including protecting the integrity of professional baseball and the relating prediction markets.
“The MOU provides a mechanism for the CFTC and MLB to exchange information in a manner consistent with applicable law, which will enable both parties to more swiftly respond to incidents and better anticipate emerging trends. Pursuant to this landmark MOU, the CFTC and MLB confirm their commitment to working together to further their respective missions.”

MLB is the second of the Big 4 to enter into a deal with a prediction market — the NHL signed deals with Kalshi and Polymarket in October 2025; MLS and UFC also have prediction market deals, while the NFL and NBA are still in the wait-and-see camp, and the NCAA continues to lobby for restrictions on sports betting and prediction markets.

However, unlike the NHL, MLB has done an about-face on the topic.

As Front Office Sports previously reported, MLB and the MLBPA wrote to players in August 2025 that, “Several companies (including Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, among others) are now offering what they call ‘prediction markets,’ which allow members of the public to risk money on the outcome of specific events, including baseball and other sporting events.”

And just like the NHL, the justification by MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred is integrity.

In an interview with Squawk Box in November, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said the deal with Kalshi provided the league with some leverage, calling it “protective”:

“We have aligned with the prediction market because we believe our fans need to understand that if they’re going to execute those contracts, it’s based on real data. But more importantly, it gives us control, because we have the ability to take down any contracts that we don’t think are appropriate. And that goes to the second part of your question.”
“Being aligned with either the sports betting entities or the prediction market entities gives you the ability to have more control and to observe more closely exactly what’s going on. So I think it’s more protective than anything else by having these alignments.”

And here is what Manfred said last week:

“I hope that it goes without saying that our primary concern, always first in our minds, is protecting the integrity of the game. I think in today's world, it is really important not to be chasing developments but try to be involved and in front of those developments because our world is so fast moving.”

Quick Hitter: NCAA Sues DraftKings Over Trademark

On Day 2 of the first round of the NCAA tournament news broke that the NCAA has filed a lawsuit against DraftKings, requesting a temporary restraining order (TRO), claiming trademark infringement.

The lawsuit, filed in federal court in the Southern District of Indiana, stems from the usage of March Madness and other trademarked terms.

There are two key questions to answer.

Question #1: Why now? This isn’t the first year sportsbooks have used the terminology, but the NCAA’s grievances with the industry have been steadily escalating.

In the press release it noted:

“The NCAA said the company’s unauthorized use of its trademarks is flatly contrary to one of the Association’s most deeply held institutional values: that sports betting must not be associated with, endorsed by, or linked to NCAA championships or the student-athletes who compete in them.”

“This causes confusion among NCAA members and student-athletes that the Association is involved with and/or endorsing sports betting, which is in direct contradiction to its robust education, integrity monitoring, anti-harassment and advocacy efforts to end risky prop bets.”

Question #2: Why just DraftKings? DraftKings is hardly the only company using these terms, and as the NCAA said in its press release, “The NCAA does not have any commercial relationships with any sportsbooks of any kind and continues to uphold a strict prohibition on advertising and sponsorships associated with betting.”

The answer might be in the lawsuit, as the NCAA says it requested the removal of the terms, but DraftKings only partially complied, claiming, “it has the right to use the NCAA’s trademarks directly on its sports betting apps.”

Perhaps other sportsbooks did more or were less abrasive in their answer. Or, this could also be the proverbial shot across the bow, and any other sportsbooks (and maybe prediction markets) who are using the same trademarks and, like DraftKings, feel they have the right to use them, might reconsider.

Quick Hitter: Kalshi Barred in Nevada?

As I’ve been saying, the Kalshi v. Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) legal case is getting extremely interesting, and is clearly the case to watch in the prediction market vs. states war.

Let’s quickly get anyone who hasn’t been following along up to speed.

Kalshi filed suit on March 28, 2025, after receiving a cease-and-desist letter from the state. And from there it has been a roller-coaster.

Judge Andrew Gordon granted a preliminary injunction on April 9, 2025. Then, in November, Judge Gordon reversed his earlier decision, dissolving the preliminary injunction and ordering Kalshi to halt operations in Nevada. The case then went to the Ninth Circuit, where Kalshi was granted a partial stay.

On March 19, 2026, the Ninth Circuit denied Kalshi’s emergency administrative stay request. A day later, Carson City District Court Judge Woodbury issued a 14-day Temporary Restraining Order (TRO), barring Kalshi from offering event-based contracts relating to sports, politics, and entertainment in Nevada without a gaming license. A preliminary-injunction hearing is set for April 3, 2026.

Everyone all caught up? Great.

In a statement following the denial, the NGCB declared victory: “With the decision today, the Board has successfully restricted the operation of all unlicensed prediction markets that had been known to be operating in Nevada… Kalshi has repeatedly stated that its operations are legal in 50 states, which is clearly not true. Prediction markets, to the extent they facilitate unlicensed gambling, are illegal in Nevada, and we have a statutory duty to protect the public.”

Kalshi has since left the state:

And urging its customers to contact their lawmakers in an email that reads:

Hi there,
We’ll cut to the chase. Due to a temporary court order, our markets related to sports, entertainment, and elections are being restricted in Nevada. You can still sell your positions or wait for them to resolve, but you won’t be able to buy new contracts.
All of our other markets - including crypto, weather, and world news - are still available.
This situation is unprecedented - Nevada is currently the only state with temporary restrictions in effect due to a court order. We disagree with those restrictions, but as a law-abiding company, we’re following them. We’re confident in our legal position, and we’ll continue to fight for your right to trade the same products that are available in 49 other states.
We built Kalshi to give everyone fair and open access to markets. Citizens of Nevada should not be forced into a business model designed to penalize winners and maximize user losses.
You can help by contacting your Nevada representative and letting them know you support open access to regulated prediction markets in Nevada.
Thanks, as always, for your support.
The Kalshi team

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Roundup: So Much News; So Little Newsletter Space

Conference committee reaches an agreement on Virginia casino bill [NBC Washington]: A controversial bill allowing a new casino in Virginia (located in Tysons) had quite a ride in the legislature, which passed several versions before a conference committee settled on the bill’s original language, which is now headed to the desk of Gov. Abigail Spanberger, where its fate is still up in the air, as opposition voices remain strong — Spanberger has until 11:59 p.m. on Monday, April 13 to sign, veto or amend the legislation.

Florida bill decoupling horse racing from other gambling fails in Senate [Florida Politics]: “A bill that would have leveled the playing field among pari-mutuel activities while decoupling thoroughbred horse racing from other gambling activities cleared the House last month, but failed to gain traction in the Senate.”

NY regulators consider biometric data to limit minors’ access to gambling [Sports Betting Dime]: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul wants to deter underage access to gambling, and, “The New York State Gaming Commission believes biometric data requirements may hold the key to Gov. Hochul’s directive. The commission will look into several recommendations, mainly those that require the use of biometric data to create and access New York online sports betting accounts, and potentially institute them in the near future.”