The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Underdog acquires PredictIt platform from Aristotle.
NEWS: Virginia iCasino hopes dwindle.
QUICK HITTER: MA bill overhauling sports betting passes committee.
QUICK HITTER: PokerStars US/Canada folded into FanDuel.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: More prediction market nuggets.
STRAY THOUGHTS: All sides of the aisle are growing annoyed.
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The Lede: Underdog Acquires Aristotle Exchange
Some significant prediction market news on Monday, with Underdog (a newsletter sponsor) purchasing Aristotle Exchange DCM, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registered Designated Contract Market (DCM), and Aristotle Exchange DCO, a CFTC registered Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO). Aristotle Exchange is the underlying platform that powers the PredictIt platform — Aristotle has confirmed it will continue to independently run the PredictIt platform following Underdog’s acquisition.
As the press release notes, “The acquisition enables Underdog to offer its own federally-compliant prediction market exchange.” Underdog’s current prediction market offerings are through Crypto.com.
And in a comment that will likely annoy some prediction market peers, Jeremy Levine, CEO and Co-Founder of Underdog, said, “The reality is, prediction markets are primarily about sports and no company knows how to engage with sports fans and create products for sports fans better than Underdog.”
The move feels like a repeat of the 2019-2021 push to bring everything in-house in the sports betting industry — I’ll discuss this more in this week’s feature column, but recall DraftKings and Robinhood/Susquehanna have purchased DCMs/DCOs.
News: The Stake in Virginia’s iCasino Heart
Virginia gave it the old college try, but it looks like the only state that will end up in the online gambling victory column is Maine, as a House bill to create a singular regulatory body was pushed off to 2027 in the Senate.
Per local press, “The subcommittee voted to continue the bill Monday morning, which pushes it to next year’s session, and the full committee heeded that recommendation later in the day.”
The bill was seen as a precursor to passing an online casino bill (as I’ll explain in a moment), which is currently in conference committee.
The Virginia House and Senate both passed online casino bills (HB 161 and SB 118), with what Straight to the Point would deem minor (relatively speaking) differences.
HB 161 calls for 5% of funds to go to the Problem Gambling Treatment and Support Fund. SB 118 requires just 2%.
HB 161 also calls for 6% to go to the new Internet Lottery Hold Harmless Fund. SB 118 has no such provision.
SB 118 creates the Modern Public Education Fund and dedicates 95% of tax revenue to it.
But, as STTP has noted all along, there were more stumbling blocks than the two chambers working out their differences.
Overhanging the entire effort was a reenactment clause that would require a second vote next year before the bills officially pass into law.
And apropos of today’s entry, Gov. Abigail Spanberger, through Secretary of Agriculture and Forestry Katie Frazier has voiced hesitation about expansion before a singular regulatory body is created.
“Governor Spanberger is deeply concerned about any discussions of gaming expansion in Virginia without first establishing a single entity with clear authority, consistent standards and strong compliance and enforcement capabilities,” Frazier said in February.
Prediction Market Roundup: AKA, Make the News Stop!
Genius Sports talks prediction market opportunity [SBC News]: Genius Sports is targeting a billion-dollar year in 2026, and part of that is the prediction market opportunity. Per SBC, “The acquisition of Legend in February got a lot of people talking – and not always for positive reasons, unfortunately for Genius leadership,” with share price plummeting in the aftermath. However, Genius is pointing to prediction markets as a core reason for the acquisition: “The advertising opportunity is quite significant. And clearly from our point of view with Legend, in terms of taking marketing spend from the prediction markets, that’s something that is pretty clear… On a more general point on prediction markets, I think a question I always think it’s interesting to ask yourselves is that more people are making wagers on sports in the US.”
Cboe to introduce non-binary prediction markets [Press Release]: “Cboe Global Markets announced its vision for a new and innovative prediction markets framework that aims to redefine how people engage with outcome-based trading… Today’s event contracts only offer two binary outcomes: ‘yes or no,’ ‘all or nothing.’ Cboe’s prediction markets will introduce a third dimension – a new middle ground – enabling customers to engage with defined risk, while gaining the opportunity to earn a partial payout when they are directionally correct, even if the result is not precisely on their target.”
Ohio judge weighs in on prediction market case [Daniel Wallach, X]: Another day and another ruling in a state vs. prediction market case, this time from Ohio, where Kalshi was dealt another defeat by Judge Sarah Morrison, who opined, “This conclusion is further supported by the Court’s obligation to avoid absurdity. Ohio argues that absurd results would flow from defining a “swap” to include a sports-event contract. The Court agrees… If that [Kalshi’s argument] is true, then all contracts for payment based on the outcome of a sporting event—all sports bets— would be forced onto DCMs like Kalshi and every sportsbook in the country would be put out of business. In the absence of congressional intent to effect such a sea change, that result is absurd.” Morrison also said, “Like the District of Nevada, this Court finds Kalshi’s logic 'self-fulfilling, circular, and inconsistent with the statutory text.'” Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost wasted little time in letting his feelings be known:
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Quick Hitter: MA Sports Betting Reform Bill Passes Committee
Massachusetts State Sen. John Keenan’s S 302, a bill that would completely overhaul the state’s sports betting industry, passed its first committee on Monday, and has been referred to the Senate Ways & Means Committee.
Keenan’s bill would change sports betting policy in several significant ways:
Raises the tax on sports wagering from 20% to 51%.
Prohibits in-play and proposition bets.
Bans advertising during televised events.
Prohibits daily wagers over $1,000 and monthly wagers over $10,000 without an affordability assessment (cannot exceed 15% of the person’s bank account balance).
Prohibits operators, employees, affiliates, etc., from receiving compensation based on a percentage of wagers or deposits.
Mandates annual submission of anonymized player data for research on addiction, harm minimization, and high-risk monitoring.
Subjects advertising of bonuses, parlays, odds boosts, reload bonuses, and risk-free wagers to consumer protection laws.
Quick Hitter: PokerStars US Absorbed Into FanDuel
As reported by Pokerfuse (which has been signaling the change for quite some time), “PokerStars has confirmed that its long-anticipated integration with FanDuel will finally move forward,” launching a “dedicated PokerStars Exclusively on FanDuel Info Hub page” and “notifying players directly via email, formally confirming that PokerStars will operate under the FanDuel banner in the United States and Ontario.”
The changeover will include migrating players to a new poker client (featuring a new-to-the-US integrated HUD), with PokerStars US platforms eventually put into mothball. Per Pokerfuse, customers will need to create new accounts when the migration to the new client is complete.
Another important development for US players is Pennsylvania being added to the already shared liquidity pools in Michigan and New Jersey. There is also the possibility of forthcoming launches in Connecticut and West Virginia (FanDuel is active in both states but hasn’t launched online poker), and perhaps Maine, if FanDuel can secure an online casino partnership agreement.
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Food for thought:
Stray Thoughts
In a 30-minute rant, political commentator Matt Walsh changes tune on legalization of sports betting - why is this important, because Walsh is the latest right-wing commentator to raise questions about sports betting: