For Kalshi and Polymarket, the goal has always been mainstream acceptance, and prediction markets can certainly unroll the “Mission Accomplished” banner on going mainstream, as running into the two brands is unavoidable — even if people don’t know what the hell they are. But like W’s early victory lap in his aircraft carrier photo op, there is still a lot of work to be done on “acceptance” part.
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You can’t scroll X or open a news app without bumping into prediction market discourse, and it’s readily apparent that prediction markets, and the “gamble on everything” worldview they are pushing, is ageing like milk in a Florida heatwave.
They are also fast becoming part of the culture war and the poster child for everything wrong with politics, with high-profile politicians and political commentators across the spectrum weighing in. Not to mention the ten bills and counting in Congress.
I’ve been warning for a while that prediction markets are likely to surface in the midterms (and the 2028 presidential election cycle) as a flashpoint for larger systemic issues: Corruption, pay-for-play, laissez-faire regulation, and out-of-control tech bros.
And on the last point, Tarek Mansour (Kalshi) and Shayne Coplan (Polymarket) have taken the Zuckerberg mantra of “move fast and break things” to a new level, and everyone is starting to notice. The Mansour-Coplan version of that saying is, “Move faster, break everything.” Which is fitting considering Kalshi means everything in Arabic.
Prediction Markets Are Here. Now What?
Two cliches kept coming to mind: Be careful what you wish for. And: Nice place you got here. Be a shame if anything happened to it.
We’re still awaiting the legal outcomes, which could end the prediction market sports experiment in one SCOTUS ruling, but there is also the possibility that prediction markets win their legal battle and still lose the war.
In their haste to scale, they have opened themselves up to a Pandora’s box of problems that will ultimately lead to their demise. Public backlash will lead to more and more markets being prohibited, regulators will demand far more robust KYC and integrity controls, and politicians will keep piling on with new restrictions.
And, as I’ve cautioned many times; even if prediction markets get everything they want, there will come a day when they become the proverbial piggy bank. The taxman (federal or otherwise) will eventually come knocking.
The platforms that are bragging about moving at lightspeed will suddenly find themselves treated like every other cash cow in Washington.
As I’ve written in the past (nearly a year ago!):
“When there is money to be made from gambling, the sharks start circling, and in this case, the sharks are the government… Someone is going to make money from sports betting besides the operator… I’m supposed to believe that Congress will pat Kalshi (and all the other sportsbooks and companies that flood into the market) on the back and say ‘good on you,’ and won’t impose a new tax and financial burdens on a $25 billion a year industry?”
Another way prediction markets could win but still lose, is that a legal victory essentially kicks open the door for someone to follow in your footsteps and turn the disruptor into the disrupted.
Prediction markets aren’t the first and won’t be the last to claim they are simply innovating and any opposition is the death throes of out-of-touch protectionists. But if you know your Star Wars canon, scrappy rebellions that succeed against the status quo will, in the end, become the new status quo.