Weekender: Prediction Markets, Sweepstakes, and Cannibalization

New CFTC leadership, scrutiny of sweepstakes sites, and debates on iGaming's impact on traditional casinos highlight this week's top stories.

The Bulletin Board

• ABOVE the FOLD: A look at the biggest stories of the week.

  — The latest on prediction markets.

  — The growing scrutiny of sweepstakes sites.

  — Cannibalization is an insurmountable hurdle to online casinos.

• HOUSEKEEPING: Podcasts, featured articles, and more from yours truly.

• PAID SUBSCRIBER BONUS: An excerpt from STTP Consulting’s The Forecast, a premium subscription service that provides quarterly reports and weekly updates on the US online gambling sector

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SPONSOR’S MESSAGE - Where does Entain go from here?

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Looking Back: Industry Trends and Concerns

Prediction Time: Given Brian Quintenz's nomination to chair the CFTC, there's a growing discussion about whether the agency could adopt a more favorable view of election markets and prediction sites. Quintenz, who sits on the board of Kalshi and is a former member of Crypto.com’s Advisory Council, is seen as a highly favorable pick for crypto and prediction operators as they expand into new markets.

Sweepstakes Sites Under Scrutiny: Several states, including Connecticut and Maryland, are moving towards prohibiting sweepstakes gaming sites. Connecticut was the first to hold a hearing on this matter on Friday (not much came from the hearing), while Maryland has scheduled committee hearings for related bills in March. This is part of a broader trend of regulatory bodies scrutinizing these sites.

Cannibalization: The ongoing debate on iGaming's cannibalization of traditional casino revenue has been on full display at several legislative hearings. The argument has invaded every aspect of the gambling debate. It has states considering or implementing regulatory measures from tax adjustments to marketing restrictions as states wrestle with balancing the growth of online gambling with the sustainability of physical casinos.

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Housekeeping

PODCASTS: This week’s guest on the Talking Shop Podcast was David Briggs, the cofounder of GeoComply. David stopped by to discuss the company’s upcoming Challenger Series in New York, the busy period around the Super Bowl, and the company's international expansion, highlighting the Brazil launch in January 2025 and the challenges the new market presents. We also discussed David’s experience at the first ICE event in Barcelona and how AI will be a tool for and against fraud in the betting industry.

COLUMNS: This week’s featured column presents my dream for a new era of responsible gambling, what I call Responsible Gaming 2.0.

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