Welcome To The Party Pal
ESPN Bet is live in 17 states, here's what we know and what the gambling world is saying. Also, DraftKings announces new "Progressive Parlay" offering.
The Bulletin Board
NEWS: What we learned during the first hours of ESPN Bet.
NEWS: DraftKings’ newly announced Progressive Parlay turns player vs. house DFS Pick’ Em games into a sports betting product.
NEWS: After falling behind DraftKings in GGR, FanDuel wants the industry to start using NGR and is making its case to states.
NEWS: Election betting is becoming an increasingly hot topic.
NEWS: NC makes progress on sports betting regs. January launch unlikely.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Reaction to ESPN Bet on social media.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Consistency over time.
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ESPN Bet Is Live, Here’s What We Know
ESPN Bet went live in 17 states at around 3:40 PM EST on Tuesday, 40 minutes after the expected launch time. So far, there isn’t too much to report, but by the end of the day, it was the #1 app in the App Store.
One of the most significant differences between Barstool Sportsbook and ESPN Bet is that the latter uses affiliates, as all the major players have exclusive sign-up codes for ESPN Bet. The affiliate offer is a “Bet Anything, Get up to $250 in Bonus Bets.”
Existing Barstool customers were prompted to download the new ESPN Bet app and enticed with $200 in Bonus Bets, whether their wager won or lost. The transition is relatively seamless, as customers’ betting history and login credentials are transferred to the new app.
New customers received a separate offer (it appears new players can stack the first deposit bonus with the $200 Bonus Bet).
One final note: multiple ESPN personalities (Elle Duncan and Mike Greenberg on launch day) had exclusive bets in the app, similar to Barstool, but without the “Can’t Lose” language.
DraftKings Progressive Parlay: The Same, But Different
DraftKings unveiled its latest offering, Progressive Parlay, during its Investor Day presentation.
CEO Jason Robins teased the news during the company’s Q3 earnings call, and internet sleuths deduced it from patent filings.
What is Progressive Parlay? At its core, it’s the DFS 2.0 Pick’ Em games that DraftKings and FanDuel have railed against. The difference is DraftKings’ Progressive Parlay will be regulated as a sports betting product.
Per the presentation, customers can wager on over/under totals on 3 - 12 legs, and bettors can still win even if one or more legs miss.
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FanDuel CFO: NGR > GGR
During its Q3 earnings call, Flutter (FanDuel) CFO Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson brushed off questions about the company’s chief rival, DraftKings, overtaking FanDuel in the US, calling gross gaming revenue numbers inflated and a poor metric to use.
During the Q3 earnings call, Edgecliffe-Johnson said:
“NGR, we think, is the right metric to look at because that does take account of generosity coming through. So, 47% NGR for us, which is up 5% year-on-year.
And it's good that now we've got nine states that are publishing that, and we are encouraging the rest of the states to do the same because I think that's really the metric that matters.
“And I think that demonstrates our strength. Our NGR share in sportsbook is 50% more than DraftKings. And I think that's the key metric.”
GGR (and handle) have long been used to rank US online gambling operators. The main reason is convenience, as they are metrics that virtually every state releases. As Edgecliffe-Johnson noted, just nine states release NGR numbers.
Meanwhile, in its Investors Day presentation, DraftKings highlighted its GGR share, which may lead FanDuel’s chief rival to lobby against the release of NGR numbers.
Election Betting Cases Point to Possible Showdown
Election betting is off-limits at legal US sportsbooks. But US bettors have plenty of ways to bet on elections.
I wrote at length about election betting in September (you can read that feature article here), and the topic has come up again.
As a recent column in Digital Journal put it:
“The fact that political gambling is illegal in the United States has not deterred Domer (a nickname he gave to AFP) or others like him from using online overseas markets to wager on American politics.”
According to Domer, he makes $500,000 annually betting on US elections at offshore sportsbooks and using VPNs.
Election betting is prohibited at licensed sportsbooks, but you can legally wager small amounts of money on US elections in two places: The Iowa Electronic Markets and PredictIt. Both are research-led prediction markets connected with universities. The latter is currently engaged in a legal battle with the CFTC, which rescinded PredictIt’s 2014 “no action” letter in 2022.
Another election betting case is also weaving its way through the US legal system: Kalshi vs. CFTC.
The lawsuit comes on the heels of the CFTC denying Kalshi’s request to offer a market on which political party will control Congress after the 2024 elections.
In its complaint filed with the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, Kashi states:
“Under the CEA, exchanges registered and regulated by the CFTC may list event contracts for trading by the public. Congress made the judgment that these derivatives should be presumptively permissible. The CFTC is empowered to prohibit event contracts only if they (1) “involve” illegal activity, terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or a “similar activity” that the CFTC determines by rule or regulation to be contrary to the public interest, and (2) are determined by the Commission to be “contrary to the public interest.”
“The CFTC blocked Kalshi’s contracts anyway. It reasoned that the statute empowers it to ban event contracts whenever the act of trading on the contract would amount to one of the enumerated activities—not merely when the event underlying the contract involves such an activity. Trading on a contract that depends on the result of an election, the Commission continued, amounts to “gaming” and may also violate some state gambling laws, because it stakes money on a contingent event. Having found the Congressional Control Contracts subject to public-interest scrutiny, the CFTC concluded that the contracts fail it, because they supposedly would further no “economic purpose” while threatening election integrity.
“... the order is an unlawful agency power grab that corrupts and dramatically expands the Commission’s statutory mandate. In rejecting Kalshi’s event contracts, the CFTC exceeded its lawful authority and engaged in arbitrary and capricious reasoning...”
With the 2024 elections 12 months away, the US appears to be on a collision course with election betting, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
North Carolina Sports Betting Updates
Several pieces of the North Carolina sports betting puzzle fell into place during a meeting of the North Carolina Sports Betting Committee on Tuesday.
First, the Committee approved a sports betting catalog and the types of bets allowed. The recommendations will now be sent to the North Carolina Lottery Commission for final approval. Nothing jumps off the page, but if you are interested, WRAL has a complete list of the approved events.
Second, by law, North Carolina could launch its mobile sports betting apps on January 8, but that target looks like a longshot. During the meeting, North Carolina Sports Betting Committee member Ripley Rand intimated that January 8 is too ambitious a target. It “probably won’t be the date that betting is authorized, considering everything we have to do.”
Finally, the Committee also decided to kick the can down the road regarding the definition of DFS. In October, the draft regulations included language prohibiting Pick’ Em style fantasy sports contests.
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
A first-ballot Hall of Famer in the “inevitable” category is ESPN employees catching flak from the social media crowd:
David Purdum wasn’t the only ESPN employee attracting attention following the launch of ESPN Bet, as Scott Van Pelt found out in his replies:
Captain Jack summed up the situation perfectly:
Stray Thoughts
If you want to improve at anything, there is only one thing you need to do: Consistent practice over time. But don’t mistake deliberate practice with mindless practice.