Winning Hearts And Minds
A New Jersey poll indicates the public isn't going to lose any sleep if online gambling operators face steeper financial burdens.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: New Jersey polling is bad news for online gambling tax increases.
ROUNDUP: OK lawmakers advance sports betting; IL regulators ban credit cards; Vixio launches regulatory tool; Crypto.com sues MD.
NEWS: The field for an NYC casino license has been pared down after two are proposals withdrawn; who are the frontrunners?
VIEWS: Hawaii says aloha (meaning goodbye) to sports betting.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Kalshi’s legal winning streak.
STRAY THOUGHTS: The youth of the nation.
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The Lede: New Jersey Poll Galvanize Support for Tax Hike?
STTP has argued several times that nobody will shed a tear for the gambling industry when lawmakers increase their regulatory or financial burdens, which plenty of states seem dead set on doing.
Yes, a small contingent of informed bettors will understand that more burdens equal more friction for customers, resulting in fewer rewards and worse odds. Still, the general public (many who don’t gamble) has little sympathy for an industry it, rightly or wrongly, believes is inundating the airwaves with advertisements and printing money on the back of gamblers.
As I’ve previously noted, “If you want to understand why sports betting ad restrictions or even outright bans will work, look no further than this article from Awful Announcing:
“One of the most refreshing things about watching the Olympics has been the total absence of gambling ads and discussion,” they wrote on the Bill Simmons subreddit. “I had almost forgotten what it was like to not be inundated with FanDuel or DraftKings ads every commercial break. And there haven’t been any conversations about odds or major upsets as they pertain to odds. It’s just pure sport, and it’s awesome.”
“The article then posted a small assortment of tweets from viewers with similar sentiments.”
And now we have even more evidence from New Jersey, where Gov. Phil Murphy has proposed a significant tax increase on online gambling operators, prompting the industry to rally support to block the effort.
That’s a tall task considering a recent poll by the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University that, per John Brennan at Casino Reports, offered “six revenue enhancement ideas and five spending cut concepts, the most popular choice was “raise taxes on online [casino] gambling and sports betting” — chosen by 58% of respondents.”
Increasing the tax burdens on online gambling operators beat out raising taxes on wealthy individuals, corporations, and alcohol and cigarettes.
As STTP has noted, these burdens will have an impact on the consumer. Raising taxes on gambling operators restricts legal markets, pushing bettors to unregulated sites and opening the door for more gray market alternatives. Bettors want to bet legally, but the legal options need to be competitive.
Roundup: OK Sports Betting; IL Bans Credit Cards; Vixio Launches Regulatory Tool; Crypto.com Sues MD
Oklahoma lawmakers get creative to bypass Gov. Stitt [Oklahoma Voice]: With Hawaii (see below) off the table, is Oklahoma the dark horse? With sports betting efforts in a stalemate, Oklahoma lawmakers are pulling out a trick last used in 2003 to pass a lottery. "A senate committee passed two sports betting bills: “HB 1047 would allow tribes the ability to exclusively offer sports betting with a 10% fee to the state… A companion measure, HB 1101, also passed by a vote of 6-3. If the first fails or is vetoed by Gov. Kevin Stitt, then HB 1101 would send the issue to a vote of the people,” State Sen. Bill Coleman said. “This procedure was used in 2003 when members did not want to take a vote on the lottery.”
Illinois Gaming Control Board adopts rule that bans credit cards [Covers.com]: “Members of the Illinois Gaming Board (IGB) voted unanimously Thursday to get the ball rolling on proposed changes to the state’s rules for funding sports betting accounts,” Covers.com reports. “IGB Administrator Marcus Fruchter said the proposed tweaks would prohibit retail and online sportsbooks in Illinois from accepting credit cards for wagering.” If enacted, Illinois would join Iowa, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Vermont as states with no-go policies for credit card deposits. Several other states have introduced bills to prohibit the use of credit cards, including in Montana and New York.
Vixio launches new regulatory management tool, Vixio Workspace [Vixio.com]: From the press release: “Vixio (a newsletter sponsor) announced the launch of Vixio Workspace… a new intuitive workflow capability into Vixio’s regulatory intelligence platform, helping to transform Vixio’s world-class regulatory intelligence into actionable steps… to address the challenges faced by compliance teams by fusing regulatory intelligence and workflow capability together, which means teams will never miss action items from critical regulatory updates.” You can explore what Vixio Workspace offers by clicking the link above.
Crypto.com follows Kalshi’s lead, sues Maryland [Daniel Wallach]: From Daniel Wallach on X, “Crypto.com has sued the Maryland Lottery in federal court for preventing it from ‘offering the trading of derivative contracts that reference sporting events on its federally regulated market.” Same argument as Kalshi – i.e., CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction.’”
News: Updated New York Casino License Rankings
And then there were nine.
Las Vegas Sands has dropped out of the race for a New York Casino license, citing the threat of online gambling: “As we previously stated, the company remains concerned about the potential impact of the legalization of igaming on the overall market opportunity and project returns,” LVS President Patrick Dumont said during the company’s recent earnings call.
MGM Empire City in Yonkers and Resorts World in Queens remain the frontrunners for two of the three available licenses.
LVS was one of the best contenders for the third license. With its withdrawal (assuming another company doesn’t take over the project), the $8 billion Steve Cohen-Hard Rock International entertainment complex near Citi Field, as well as the 250,000-square-foot casino proposed by Caesars Entertainment and SL Green in Times Square, are the best candidates.
However, even the Caesars proposal has significant barriers, as it, and the other Manhattan proposals have run into bureaucracy:
As previously reported in STTP, “according to The Real Deal, a real estate publication:
“Three casino proposals in Manhattan may be disqualified from the competition for a downstate gaming license because of the state’s Gaming Commission’s failure to initiate required environmental reviews, Crain’s reported. People involved with the bids raised concerns that the clock could run out on them.”
The impacted proposals are:
SL Green and Caesars Times Square proposal, which STTP called a viable candidate last month, is the best of the various Manhattan proposals.
Silverstein Properties and Greenwood Gaming’s Avenir proposal, a $1.8 billion high-end casino project, is another long-shot candidate.
Soloviev Group’s proposed mixed-use complex near the United Nations with a casino, 1,325 apartments, a museum, and 4.7 acres of East River green space — also a long shot candidate.
And the other proposals are also on shaky ground:
Bally’s Links at Ferry Point (Bronx): Despite sweetening local payments, the proposal was overwhelmingly rejected at a local board meeting, with residents saying the project would eliminate valuable parkland and offer minimal community benefits. Throw in Bally’s Chicago issues, and the project is a true longshot.
The Coney (Brooklyn): Local opposition, along with numerous other proposals to consider, has the joint venture from Thor Equities, Legends Entertainment, the Chickasaw Nation, and Saratoga Casino Holdings too much to overcome — these concerns were on full display during a testy hearing last month.
Wynn New York City (Hudson Yards): the most pricey proposal ($12 billion) faces strong local opposition. The project increased its housing commitment (1,500 units, including 324 affordable) to bolster the bid, along with a 5.6-acre park, a K-8 school, and a 1,750-room hotel. The project still requires zoning changes and approval from the City Council.
[WITHDRAWN] Sands New York (Nassau County)
The proposal: Las Vegas Sands’ proposed resort at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum site includes a casino, hotels, convention space, and a luxury spa, with gaming as just 10% of the project.
[WITHDRAWN] Saks Fifth Avenue (Manhattan)
The proposal: Hudson’s Bay Company's proposal would convert the top three floors of its flagship Saks store into a 200,000-square-foot luxury casino.
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News: Hawaii Sports Bill Dies in Conference Committee
Hawaii gave it its best effort, but ultimately, the legislature decided against legalizing mobile sports betting — passage would have marked the first legal gambling option on the islands.
The bill, HB 1308, died in the conference committee, as representatives from the House and Senate were unable to reach a final agreement on the bill.
As STTP previously noted, Hawaii’s 2025 sports betting push went from a quaint attempt to a serious contender. However, I remained “cautiously optimistic” about the bill’s chances — we are talking about Hawaii, after all.
As recently noted, after Nebraska's efforts imploded, Hawaii was the last remaining piece on the current chessboard. Now, it will take an out-of-the-blue effort somewhere (Oklahoma?) in the US to prevent 2025 from being the second consecutive year with zero legislation legalizing mobile sports betting or online casino gambling passing — Missouri achieved this in 2024 through a ballot referendum.
So what went wrong? As I previously mentioned, there were still several important details to finalize:
“The low 10% tax rate and a $250,000 license fee might be up for debate.
“The Senate also changed regulatory oversight to the Department of Law Enforcement, a big topic of discussion since Hawaii doesn’t have gambling or any gambling regulators.
“The lack of infrastructure also calls into question the proposed timeline in the bill that has the act going into effect on July 1, 2025 — it’s hard to imagine a new regulatory staff being ready to accept licensing applications in three months.”
And as Robert Linnehan noted in his recap, lawmakers opposed to the bill didn’t simply vanish. Among the comments made during discussions of HB 1308 were:
“I’ve received email messages, as have you, from parents and ex-gamblers writing of the tragic loss of life and homes due to addiction of sports gambling from those who cannot keep their fingers from clicking to bet. It’s easy to say that sports betting is already happening, so why not legalize it? That works only when there are effective regulatory enforcement structures in place, but that’s not the case here,” Sen. Sharon Y. Moriwaki (D-12) said.
“I haven’t seen one person who has made a living, or has moved up, because they made so much more money (from sports betting). Most of my friends went the opposite way. This bill to legalize gambling is a question. Do we want this kind of money in the state of Hawaii to fix our roads? Sometimes, taking care of our families more ethically might be the better choice,” Rep. David Alcos III (R-41) said.
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Kalshi wins again, as a New Jersey judge granted the company’s request for a preliminary injunction, allowing it to continue offering its sports markets in New Jersey.
Chris Grove highlighted the key line (as I said on X, everyone better stock up on popcorn):
From Dustin Gouker, who covered the opinion in his Closing Line newsletter.
And from Kalshi’s Sara Slane:
Stray Thoughts
I’ve talked about youth sports on a couple of occasions, noting:
“Through my martial arts school, I see the demands these sports make on young children (and their parents) all the time. Seven- and eight-year-olds are being asked to commit to playing baseball or flag football four-plus days a week and travel to games. I get this for elite middle school leagues and high school, but elementary kids playing a sport for the first time?!?!?!!
“One introductory flag football league in our area requires an eight-year-old playing the sport for the very first time to practice four days a week in the summer from 5:30 to 8 PM.”
And in a subsequent Stray Thought:
This excerpt from an article about private equity getting into youth sports paints a vivid picture of what is occurring, and something I talk to my wife and parents a lot, particularly the two parts I bolded:
“The sandlot era when kids played sports largely unsupervised is long gone… In their place has come the age of travel squads. Kids as young as six are playing on teams with paid coaches, year-round schedules, multiple practices per week, long-distance travel, and, in many cases, intense competition for roster spots. In theory, these teams prepare kids to play at the college level and beyond. In practice, they’re making youth sports increasingly expensive, exclusive, and pressurized.”
Yet, while many parents despise these aspects of the sports, they still sign their kids up. It’s the new “you have to go to college [even if it’s a waste of your time and money]” mindset.
The anecdotal stories we hear at the karate school are remarkable. One local town’s high school football team started performing badly, so they started new youth sports programs that require total commitment (four multi-hour practices and travel games) from little kids as young as 7. One youth baseball coach decided to practice four days a week instead of two, so every other team followed suit.
Now I’m back for a third go round, as I’m currently reading More Than Play: How Law, Policy, and Politics Shape American Youth Sport, by Dionne Koller, and have Take Back the Game: How Money and Mania Are Ruining Kids' Sports--and Why It Matters, by Linda Flanagan on deck.
I also stumbled across this LinkedIn Post from Kyle Scott Lakowski:
I think we need to revisit the commitments we are placing on extremely young children. No town baseball/football/soccer league should be asking eight year olds to commit to daily practices + games. I’d argue these should all be once or twice weekly skill development leagues up until a certain age. We limit how much, and what time of day, teenagers can work, yet we allow an eight or twn year-old to play in multiple baseball leagues with ridiculous demand on their time and body.
This won’t be the last I write on this topic.