Welcome Back (To That Same Old Place)
As John Sebastian sang, "The names have all changed since you hung around," and that's precisely what Betcris will find in its US return.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Betcris is back in the US, but has anyone noticed?
LEGAL and REGULATORY ROUNDUP: Ohio tax increase; Hawaii sports betting bill; WV crackdown on sweeps; Iowa casino moratorium bill.
VIEWS: Is Kalshi + Robinhood a game-changer or the beginning of the end?
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Even more sports betting takes in the wild.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Keep it simple.
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Sporttrade is now live in their fifth state; Virginia
The Lede: Betcris Returns to the US After 18-Year Absence
Before its recent launch in Arizona last week, Betcris hadn’t (purposely) taken a bet from a US-based customer since 2007.
That raises the all-important question: Is this a big deal or a big deal to a couple of hundred industry types?
As the EKG Line Substack noted, the Betcris tech stack (Plannatech) and sharp model haven’t had much of an impact in the US thus far:
“It's fair to question how big a splash the brand will make. The Prime Sports product on the same tech stack ranked 19th out of 19 sportsbooks in our 2H24 app rankings, with testers criticizing its utilitarian layout and lack of modern sportsbook features like SGP and cash-out.”
“More generally we see “sharp” sportsbooks struggling to gain traction in the U.S.—outside of Circa in Nevada. Prime’s best month in New Jersey since launch is 0.48% GGR share. Circa in Iowa generated -$63k GGR for all of CY24.”
To EKG’s point, the number of “sharp” sportsbooks in the US is increasing, so they are not only competing against the big recreational books but each other — not to mention prediction markets (which I discuss in later in this newsletter).
I would also point to Betcris’s extended absence, as few US bettors are aware of, let alone patronized the site. As EKG put it, it has some “global cachet” as a line-setting book, but that’s unlikely to resonate outside a small segment of sports bettors.
A similar scenario played out in the early days of New Jersey’s online casino industry when everyone expected Partypoker and other former US-facing operators to dominate. The opposite proved true, and local casino brands were the more popular option. The memory of Partypoker was wiped from poker players’ memories during the company’s seven-year absence.
One of the big arguments against PokerStars reentering the US market as a licensed operator was that it had only recently left (in 2011). A former online poker executive once explained it to me this way (paraphrasing): PokerStars’ US database has Gmail addresses; Partypoker’s has AOL. That competitive advantage led to PokerStars sitting in the “penalty box” for two years, as former New Jersey DGE Director David Rebuck called it.
Legal and Regulatory Roundup: OH Tax Hike; HI Sports Betting Bill; WV Targets Sweeps; IA Casino Moratorium
Ohio Gov. wants to double the sports betting tax rate (again): Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has proposed doubling the sports betting tax rate on operators from 20% to 40% in his latest budget — DeWine doubled the rate from 10% to 20% in 2023 — the money would go to youth sports and stadium projects. “It seems to be only just and fair that some stadiums be paid for by them and it seems also fair that our young people, who you know they are targeting, will get some benefit by being able to play sports," DeWine said.
Sports betting bill advances in Hawaii, but not without opposition: Sports betting legislation has cleared its first hurdle in Hawaii. The Hawaii House Committee on Economic Development & Technology recommended HB 1308 be passed in a 6-0 vote on Jan. 31, 2025, with one member not voting. As Daniel Wallach noted on X, there is a difference of opinion in Hawaii, with MGM supporting the bill and Boyd Gaming opposing it — Boyd has a very lucrative business, Vacations Hawaii, that offers “convenient and affordable” flights from Hawaii to Las Vegas.
Link to HB 1308
West Virginia is the latest iGaming state to question sweepstakes: According to a source who spoke with Casino Reports, “West Virginia Attorney General JB McCuskey is preparing to either subpoena or send cease-and-desist letters to sweepstakes operators accessing customers in the state.” McCluskey didn’t confirm or deny that action was imminent but did tell Casino Reports, “We have serious concerns about West Virginia consumers, specifically our children, being targeted by illegal gambling operations.” Several states are considering legislation prohibiting sweepstakes gambling sites — New York, Mississippi, and unlicensed sites in New Jersey — and five states have sent C&D letters to sweepstakes operators: Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Delaware, and Maryland.
Iowa House fast-tracks casino moratorium, Senate more resistant: Any hope of the Iowa legislature exploring online casinos in 2025 is predicated on lawmakers passing a new casino moratorium bill. The Iowa Gaming Association’s Wes Ehrecke told Play USA the industry is 100% focused on legislation to stop the building of any new properties, and until that is completed, online casinos will not be discussed. As noted last week, the House fast-tracked the casino moratorium bill, but after passing the House, the bill is finding the Senate a slower slog. Iowa Senate President Amy Sinclair called the bill’s chances “basically a jump ball in the Senate.”
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Views: Prediction Markets Are Moving [Too] Fast
It’s hard to believe that Kalshi received the green light on September 12, 2024, to offer a prediction market on which party will control Congress following the 2024 elections.
Since then, the company has added numerous markets to the 2024 elections, entered the sports betting space, and now offers its markets through brokerage firm Robinhood. Of note, many of these new offerings were self-certified.
I know things move quickly in this space, but one area typically moves at a snail’s pace: regulations.
“This is a significant development/partnership. Having watched this sector for 25 years, lawmakers and regulators (often alerted by licensed ops) don't appreciate the move-fast approach we see in the prediction market space.
“If you speed, you will eventually get pulled over.
“To be clear, I don't believe either company is violating laws or regulations. Instead, they will likely cause (negative?) changes to existing laws and regulations.
“A good example is the Minnesota Lottery launching online sales (which it was authorized to do) and the legislature later making the game illegal because they felt they weren't adequately consulted.”
And apparently, I’m not the only one with these thoughts.
Compliance+More reported this morning that the CFTC “is questioning digital exchange Crypto.com and prediction market maker Kalshi over the legality of derivatives-based Super Bowl sports events contracts.”
“It has since ordered both the Singapore-based crypto exchange and Kalshi to explain how their offerings are truly futures products and not just straight-up sports betting,” Bloomberg first reported.”
Granted, Kalshi doesn’t call it betting, but many others do, which is precisely the issue a regulator like Justin Stempeck might want to examine.
As Kim Lund notes (Podcast #8 and #34), Kalshi may want to pump the brakes on its breakneck speed.
Most companies in this space, licensed or not, would tell you the smart play is to stay off the regulatory radar.
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
My ears always perk up when non-industry media takes an interest in online gambling, and no one is more interested than Saagar Enjeti, co-host of Breaking Points (1.4 million subscribers on YouTube alone), who has been screaming from the rooftops about the dangers of online gambling for several months (here, here, and here).
Two new tweets from Saagar, the first going in on the widening federal sports betting investigation, which STTP covered on Monday:
And another tweet that shows the high hold of the increasingly popular bets compared to traditional bets:
Stray Thoughts
Don’t overcomplicate things.
Every time someone pops up with a solution (particularly in the responsible gambling space), it’s always complex and untrackable.
Get the basics right, and 99% of your problems disappear.
When I worked in health clubs, people would come in with elaborate plans to get in shape, including complex workout plans, taking 8 different vitamins and supplements, and restrictive diets. Some got results, but had no way of knowing what was leading to the results — a specific supplement they were taking, the “killer” routine, the fad diet?
From my experience, 99% of people would get the same results by following two simple rules:
Come to the gym 3x/week
Eat less/healthier
Worse, most people can’t deal with the shock of radical changes and ditch their new healthy lifestyle within a couple of weeks. Build the habits (the foundation), then slowly add complexity.