Baby Steps Forward
California's sports betting puzzle has stumped all comers, but progress with tribes offers hope. The final solution will come when all sides commit to align the pieces.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: The path forward in California is fraught, but navigable.
ROUNDUP: New NGCB chair; NJ RG Task Force report; PlayTech wants private blackjack in NJ; TX Lottery tumult; IC360 + PGA
VIEWS: Online casino advocates need to win over the public.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Two must-listen podcasts on Kalshi.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Remember it. Write it down. Take a picture.
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The Lede: The California Solution Is Small Steps Forward
California sports betting has become an increasingly complex and challenging issue. Everyone believes there is a solution, but like a tangled knot of ropes, each pull to unravel it only twists it tighter.
Last week, I discussed the many challenges California presents:
“The cold, hard truth is that any expansion of gambling in California goes through the tribes. Full stop. PokerStars learned this lesson. DraftKings, FanDuel, and the other operators trying to open the California sports betting market learned it, too. Everyone knows gambling expansion goes through tribes, but few understand what that means.”
I spent a considerable amount of time identifying the complexity of navigating California’s tribal landscape and its diverse priorities. That said, there are viable paths forward.
While I highlighted the division (whether purposeful or accidental), coalition-building has to overcome division (existing or newly created). It’s about aligning incentives, which takes time and will have inevitable stumbles.
Since the 2022 ballot initiative’s bitter failure, incremental progress has been made — progress is progress, no matter how small.
Discussions between commercial operators and tribes are underway. While the fallout from the Indian Gaming Tradeshow & Conference roundtable was far from ideal, the discussion itself—and the framework for a tribal-controlled consortium that licenses commercial brands while ensuring tribes retain branding and revenue dominance—is promising.
As I wrote last week, “Commercial operators do have tribal support, but they lack the level of buy-in necessary to broker a deal. The trick is getting the right tribes on board; that’s when the magic happens.”
Convincing even one or two tribes with significant political clout of the economic benefits without compromising sovereignty could tip the scales.
California’s puzzle isn’t unsolvable—it demands patience, respect, and a shared vision. The pieces are in place; now it’s time to align them with purpose. Ultimately, every side — tribes, operators, and the state — must fully commit to the deal, or the rope will remain a tangled mess.
Roundup: New NGCB Chair; NJ RG Report; PlayTech Wants Private Blackjack; TX Lottery Tumult; IC360+PGA
Mike Dreitzer nominated to lead NGCB [CDC Gaming Reports]: “Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo has tapped Mike Dreitzer to serve as the next chairperson of the Gaming Control Board, following the end of the legislative session in June… Dreitzer will resign his position as CEO of Gaming Arts LLC, and will replace Kirk Hendrick, who announced in January he’s stepping down as the NGCB Chair. Hendrick is one of two commissioners to leave the NGCB in 2025; Commissioner Brittnie Watkins said she would not seek reelection for another term — her term ends at the end of the month.
New Jersey Responsible Gambling Task Force recommendations [Press of AC]: A new report from the New Jersey Responsible Gambling Task Force proposes several policy recommendations, including "education in elementary schools, centralized self-exclusion, annual gambling studies, cautioning that gambling can be “addictive” in advertisements, and the creation of a statewide responsible-gambling board to evaluate such efforts. The task force was created by Gov. Phil Murphy last year via executive order. I’ll take a deeper look at the report in an upcoming newsletter.
PlayTech petitions DGE to offer private online blackjack games [Press of AC]: PlayTech wants to bring a slice of the high-roller casino life to the online realm. Per the Press of AC, “The New York-based company has filed a petition with the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement seeking approval to offer private-booking blackjack tables as part of its online gambling platforms.”
Texas Lottery executive director resigns, as tumult continues [Texas Tribune]: As lawmakers contemplate the future of the Texas Lottery, “Ryan Mindell, the executive director of the Texas Lottery Commission, has resigned effective immediately, according to a news release from the agency on Monday.” As the Tribune notes, “Recent scrutiny of the agency from lawmakers reached a head after the House’s budget passed the chamber with zero funding for the lottery commission, a decision representatives doubled down on with a second nonbinding motion. The agency is also under two investigations by the Texas Rangers, a division of the Department of Public Safety, and Attorney General Ken Paxton’s office.”
IC360 partners with PGA [Press Release]: Integrity Compliance 360 (IC360) has announced a collaboration with the PGA of America. “Through this partnership, IC360 will provide the PGA of America with its state-of-the-art Integrity Monitoring technology, providing real-time alerts on global wagering activity. Additionally, the PGA of America will utilize ProhiBet, the one-of-a-kind prohibited bettor solution to prevent individuals from engaging in prohibited wagering activities.”
News: Poll Portends Rough Waters for iCasino Efforts
March polling from Tulchin Research highlights the many headwinds online casino legislation faces in states like Illinois.
In a survey of 800 Illinois voters, Tulchin notes that respondents view online gambling as a more addictive and less restrictive product that will lead to increased rates of problem and underage gambling.
While the polling questions are designed to steer respondents toward negative answers (particularly the final question, as shown in the second image), this illustrates how easily opponents can distort the narrative.
More worrisome for proponents, this is the public perception of online casinos, which is just one piece of the opposition puzzle.
Institutional opposition (from anti-gambling groups to brick-and-mortar gambling establishments) has also put several bugs in the ears of lawmakers:
Brick-and-mortar revenue cannibalization (brock-and-mortar stakeholders)
Job loss (unions and brick-and-mortar stakeholders)
Legalization hangovers from wall-to-wall advertising (anti-gambling groups)
Predatory practices (anti-gambling groups)
Social harms outweigh the benefits (anti-gambling groups)
The combination of public skepticism and organized resistance underscores the uphill battle online casino advocates face. While the polling highlights a manipulable narrative, it also reflects genuine voter concerns that resonate with institutional critiques.
Proponents must address these multifaceted objections — ranging from economic impacts to social consequences — making the path to legalization a complex and daunting endeavor.
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Check out two recent podcast guests, Dustin Gouker and Andrew Kim, who stopped by to discuss all things Kalshi — Sporttrade CEO Alex Kane will be featured in an upcoming episode, available on Friday.
These are both must-listen episodes for anyone following or trying to make sense of the current prediction market brouhaha.
In this episode of the Talking Shop Podcast, Dustin Gouker, founder of Closing Line Consulting and publisher of The Closing Line and Event Horizon newsletters, returns to discuss the evolving landscape of the US gambling industry, focusing on the rise of prediction markets, particularly Kalshi’s sports event trading.
In this episode of The Talking Shop Podcast, Andrew Kim, a partner at Goodwin specializing in appellate litigation and gaming law, discusses the legal battles surrounding Kalshi.
Stray Thoughts
Every so often, I go through my bookmarked tweets to see what nuggets of wisdom I’ve saved.
Here are a couple:
“Advice-giving inherently implies unequal status. Unless people explicitly relinquish claims to equal status by asking for advice, offering it will cultivate resentment.” ~ Rob Henderson
This is how I view most of the responsible gambling messaging in the space: It cultivates resentment.
Bill Miller’s Gambling for Dummies (from the Next Summit in NYC): Money goes into machine, app, something on the internet, stuff happens, and money comes back out or goes away.
Is this a wild oversimplification? Yes. Do we need more “for Dummies” explanations in the space? Also yes.