Cozying Up
It seems like everyone is ready to move into the prediction market space, not least of which is Sportradar, which announced a multiyear deal with Kalshi on Monday.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Sportradar inks deal with Kalshi; here’s what you need to know.
ROUNDUP: A look at the stories you may have missed.
NEWS: EDGE Markets raises $30 million; moves into prediction market space.
VIEWS: Polymarket employees accuse Kalshi of spying on their New York office.
WEBINAR: The Gamblification of Everything, hosted by AIBM
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: White House completes review of CFTC prediction market rules.
STRAY THOUGHTS: Sorsby ruling challenges my already challenged worldview.
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The Lede: Sportradar Inks Deal With Kalshi
This one was really only a matter of time: Sportradar has announced a first-of-its-kind strategic agreement with Kalshi.
Per the press release, the agreement “positions Sportradar as an official data and solutions provider for Kalshi, delivering a broad portfolio of premium sports content and services across major sports properties including Major League Baseball (MLB), the National Hockey League (NHL), Major League Soccer (MLS), and Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), among others.”
The press release goes on to list the services Sportradar will provide to Kalshi:
Official Sports Data and Live Odds: Fast, reliable, accurate official data and live odds to power pre-game and in-play markets, enhancing market efficiency while ensuring timely settlements
Fan Engagement Solutions: Dynamic, real-time content, including scores, schedules, and data visualizations, designed to drive deeper engagement
Customer Acquisition Solutions: Leading marketing services to help acquire high value sports fans
Industry-Leading Integrity Services: Robust integrity framework including Sportradar UFDS AI, which detects suspicious behavior, and Sportradar Integrity Exchange (SIE), which enables participants to share integrity threats through a secure network
“The breadth and depth of this partnership is what makes it a big deal,” Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi said. “We’re using official league data to ensure quicker trade settlements, creating an overall better customer experience. We’re also collaborating on an integrity monitoring program to further protect our users.”
Looking at the deal from Sportradar’s perspective, the team at Citizens, led by Jordan Bender, called it strategically important, but noted such a deal was already baked into Sportradar’s 2026 outlook, as there was “enough near-term visibility around deals getting over the finish line.”
Citizens also noted that, “While financial terms were not disclosed, the agreement is structured around a revenue-sharing arrangement rather than a fixed-fee model, similar to online sports betting economics in the US.” It also pointed to Sportradar being able to essentially copy/paste the deal for other prediction market operators, while also being able to tailor it to individual needs.
Citizens also highlighted the use of Sportradar’s integrity solutions, noting “Regulatory oversight remains one of the key challenges facing prediction markets, and embedding integrity monitoring and surveillance capabilities from inception should enhance Kalshi’s credibility with regulators and institutional participants.”
Roundup: So Much News; So Little Newsletter Space
Sports betting faces uphill battle in South Carolina [SC Daily Gazette]: Gambling expansion has been a topic of conversation in South Carolina, with sports betting and land-based casinos getting some interest in the legislature. One reason progress has been slow (besides it being South Carolina) is Gov. Henry McMaster, who has staunchly opposed gambling. McMaster will be out of office next year, but as the South Carolina Daily Gazette reports, Democrat Billy Webster (Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in SC in 20 years, and haven’t won a governor’s race since 1998), is the only remaining candidate who supports gambling expansions, and that support is conditional.
FTC gets pulled into the prediction market debate [Press Release]: A group of lawmakers led by U.S. Reps. Kevin Mullin (CA-15) and Gabe Vasquez (NM-02) are urging the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to investigate whether new online prediction market platforms are engaging in unfair and deceptive practices that mislead consumers. Among the questions the lawmakers would like answered are: Has the FTC [and does it plan to] taken any investigative or enforcement actions related to prediction market platform conduct as possible unfair or deceptive acts or practices? Does the FTC differentiate between the act of betting versus gambling in terms of determining possible unfair or deceptive acts or practices taken by prediction market platforms? Has the FTC received complaints about prediction market platforms? Full letter available here.
Elizabeth Warren queries the CFTC over bias [Reuters]: “In a letter to Michael Selig, who took office in December as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and is the sole sitting commissioner of the five-member bipartisan agency, Warren cited reporting in the [New York] Times and elsewhere according to which agency leadership intervened to benefit companies backed by Trump allies and punished agency staff who stood in the way… “Taken together, these are concerning signs of a CFTC beholden to political pressures and interests of the wealthy insiders, unbound by the rule of law and failing to protect investors and market integrity,” Warren wrote.
Better Business Bureau is the latest group to take aim at Kalshi [Press Release]: “As part of its marketplace monitoring program, BBB National Programs’ National Advertising Division will refer Kalshi Inc. to the appropriate regulatory authorities, including relevant state Attorneys General, for review and possible enforcement action for failure to participate in the National Advertising Division (NAD) inquiry. At issue for NAD was whether material connections between Kalshi and influencers or affiliates were clearly and conspicuously disclosed in social media advertising, and whether Kalshi takes adequate steps to ensure compliance with the Federal Trade Commission’s Guides Concerning the Use of Endorsements and Testimonials in Advertising.”
DraftKings launches Moonshot, a casino-fied sports bet [Press Release]: On Monday, DraftKings announced the launch of Moonshot, a very casino-like sports betting product in 18 locales. Here’s how it works per DraftKings’ press release: “Customers select a live MLB game, place a wager before the next qualifying plate appearance and choose a target multiplier for their payout. The potential payout increases based on predefined multipliers tied to batter outcomes (i.e. Double: +2x), and customers can cash out at any time prior to reaching their target payout, or an out being recorded. A Moonshot bet settles as a win if the selected target payout is reached. If an out is recorded before the target is reached or the customer cashes out, the wager ends.”
News: Edge Markets Raises $30 Million in Series A Round
Yesterday, EDGE Markets announced a $29.2 Million Series A funding round (EDGE raised $17 million in a Seed Round in March 2025), which will “support the launch of EDGE Pro, a dedicated banking platform for market makers trading on prediction markets, and EDGE Connect; the first purpose-built payment rail for gaming and prediction markets.”
EDGE Markets also announced it’s pursuing an Introducing Broker and Futures Commission Merchant registrations with the National Futures Association, which will allow EDGE Pro users to execute orders directly through their accounts and conduct “post-execution settlement,” whereas the current model requires trading accounts to be “prefunded and fully collateralized.”
In a statement to Straight to the Point, EDGE CEO Seni Thomas explained the problems this will solve in the prediction market space:
"One looming issue that is not on enough people's radar is the capital constraints for traders as we move from a single market world (Kalshi) to multiple liquidity pools. Currently, all accounts need to be prefunded. That means you need to split up your capital 5-7 ways to enable trades across pools or do cross-exchange arbitrage. This is a non-starter and will also hurt the new exchanges launching. It is chicken-and-egg as market makers won't want to enter new exchanges if it impacts their profits on Kalshi. The most profitable RFQ trades are also extremely capital-intensive, and many traders are already capital-constrained. This is what our product EDGE Pro solves for, as you'll have a centralized trading account that enables you to trade in real-time across all the pools. In addition, we are seeing a growing number of high-volume traders being de-banked by major banks, which is a problem we have already solved for whales in the gaming space. EDGE Pro will be the base station for capital allocation in this emerging vertical."
Dustin Gouker spoke with Thomas about the fundraising round in a podcast released yesterday:
Thomas is multi-time guest on the Straight to the Point Talking Shop Podcast:
Views: Polymarket Employees Accuse Kalshi of Spying
As Straight to the Point has been tracking, there is no love lost between Kalshi and Polymarket. Not only are the accusations steadily streaming in, they are also becoming more and more explosive, with some Polymarket employees accusing Kalshi of possible corporate espionage.
Here’s the latest from the NY Post:
“[Polymarket] has amassed a working dossier that it has dubbed “copycat” that has detailed roughly a dozen of eyebrow-raising incidents and data points — including examples where Kalshi apparently launched products that were strikingly similar to Polymarket’s and with suspicious timing, the sources said.
“‘There have been a couple too many coincidences,’ Polymarket’s head of marketing, Matthew Modabber, told The Post, confirming the probe in a brief phone interview.”
As I’ve been saying, this intra-industry fighting and division, at a time when the prediction market industry is balancing on a knife blade, is going to make the ongoing rulemaking process at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) extremely interesting, as Kalshi/Polymarket will not only be lobbying against restraints from the many, and varied, prediction market opponents, but also from suggested policies from each other, as they battle for the best position possible.
As I said in a May 12 newsletter, titled, A House Divided, “Prediction markets are not only fighting battles against state regulators and tribal and commercial gaming, they are also fighting amongst themselves.”
Chris Grove perfectly summed up the current state of the industry in a tweet:
Upcoming Webinar on The Gamblification of Everything
Gambling is everywhere and everything is gambling. Over the last few years, gambling has become a rapidly normalized part of American life, and sports betting is just the tip of the iceberg. From online casino games to wagering on drone strikes via prediction markets to slot-machine mechanics built into video games, Americans can find gambling and gambling-like games everywhere.
What is the spread of gambling doing to individuals and to society at large?
How much further could gambling go?
Join the American Institute for Boys and Men for a webinar to reckon with the new place of gambling in American life.
German Lopez (New York Times) will moderate a conversation featuring Kyla Scanlon (economic commentator), Matt King (Fanatics Betting and Gaming), and Jonathan Cohen (AIBM).
Register at https://aibm.org/events/the-gamblification-of-everything/
And here is an “appetizer” of the discussion with AIBM’s Jonathan D. Cohen and David Sasaki:
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Break out the “eyes” emoji 👀:
And as Straight to the Point reported back on June 1 when the rules were submitted to the White House for review, the process could trigger a whole new cluster of lawsuits:
Stray Thoughts
Pretty much every day I wake up thinking that my worldview can’t possibly be challenged any more than it already has, and it’s basically “hold my beer” every day. Consider yesterday’s news, that a Texas judge granted Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby a temporary injunction against the NCAA, allowing him to play this season.
As ESPN noted, “Sorsby acknowledged he had wagered at least $90,000 on pro and college sports over the past four years, including 40 bets on Indiana football while he was a freshman with the Hoosiers in 2022.”
I’m glad I’m not the only one who thinks this is beyond the pale:
