Let's Revisit That Prediction
It was the hottest of hot takes, but my fingers-crossed prediction that California could beat Minnesota and Georgia to online sports betting is looking pretty grim.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: California tribes shoot down any hope of sports betting in 2026.
ICYMI: Genting-Tribal partnership in MA; ROGA’s RFP for RG accredidation; ND Legislature says no to OSB; Kalshi to add sports prediction market.
NEWS: Meadowlands owner is still pushing for a North Jersey casino.
VIEWS: Big gambling revenue numbers require context.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Victor Rocha speaks his mind.
STRAY THOUGHTS: 2025? Unlikely. But 2026 and beyond look promising.
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The Lede: California Tribes Put Sports Betting on Hold
Almost as soon as Straight to the Point argued that California could beat Minnesota and Georgia to the online sports betting punch, new evidence emerged that made the course unnavigable despite growing concerns about the sweepstakes industry.
It was always a dream. As I wrote earlier this month, “There is a scenario where California beats both states to the punch or at least legalizes mobile betting in the same year as Minnesota, Georgia, or both.”
That scenario is no longer on the table.
As iGaming Business reported, “A panel of California tribal leaders Tuesday (21 January) told ICE participants that they won't put legal sports betting on the 2026 ballot.”
The panel noted that tribes have reached a consensus on the how. However, they don’t believe there is enough support among voters, coupled with a lingering hangover from the failed 2022 ballot initiatives and the likelihood that there will be some tribal holdouts.
“It’s not going to happen in 2026,” Pechanga Band of Mission Indians councilmember Catalina Chacon said. “The data is telling us that the time is not right. Definitely not 2026, we’re looking more like 2028, but it has to include all tribal communities in California.”
This aligns with what STTP has been hearing from various industry sources. The sliver of hope that a 2026 ballot initiative was possible has been replaced with a focused effort on the 2028 ballot. However, a lot can change in this industry in a few months, never mind a few years.
ICYMI: Genting-Tribal Partnership in MA; ROGA’s RFP; ND Legislature Says No to OSB; Kalshi to Offer Sports Market
Genting back in the mix after MA Tribe opens Welcome Center (with gaming machines): The Mashpee Wampanoag Welcome Center is open to visitors, and as expected, it includes a “sampling” of ten gaming machines. Per the Taunton Gazette, “Tribal officials said the Welcome Center will eventually lead to resort and casino development finally coming to fruition.” More importantly, it looks like Genting is back as the tribe’s partner: Kevin Jones, the chief strategy officer and legal officer for Genting Americas, Inc., said, “The estimated 2,000-square-foot Welcome Center is about educating and presenting to the public the Tribe’s history and its connections to its ancestral lands, including the land in Taunton it will develop.”
ROGA announces RFP for accreditation program: In a press release, “The Responsible Online Gaming Association (ROGA), an independent association consisting of eight of the largest US online gaming companies, announced the launch today of a Request for Proposal (RFP) process to develop and deliver a comprehensive certification program that will support operators’ continued commitment to robust responsible gaming standards that help protect players and keep gaming fun and recreational.” STTP Thoughts: This is all well and good, but ROGA needs to convince many people (myself included) that this isn’t another expensive box-ticking exercise.
North Dakota House shuts the door on sports betting effort: North Dakota’s latest attempt to put mobile sports betting on the ballot was voted down 24-to-70 in the North Dakota House. The vote came after the House Judiciary Committee recommended not passing the bill (HCR 3002). According to KFYR TV, “Opponents cited testimony from student organizations and college officials concerned about creating gambling addictions and harmful rhetoric against college athletes.”
Kalshi petitions CFTC to offer sports prediction market: Per Covers.com, “Kalshi, which already offers de facto wagering on politics, economics, and entertainment outcomes, submitted paperwork on Wednesday to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch a "Will <team> win <title>?" contract.” The news comes on the heels of a more friendly CFTC (temporary) Chair replacing Rostin Behnam and Crypto.com’s foray into sports betting that drew the CFTC’s ire.
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News: Meadowlands Owner Pushes for Casino Games
Meadowlands owner Jeff Gural has a message for everyone: Don’t focus on the big numbers because they don’t tell the entire story.
“The Meadowlands has been touting their nightly, weekly, and yearly handle, which for 2024 averaged $3 million a night for the fourth time in the last five years, by far the biggest number in the sport in all of North America.”
But, according to Gural, “We make most of our money on the import of other signals, and what you’re seeing is a slow decline because our customers are old like me, and they’re dying off, or they’re betting on sports, which they can do. In New Jersey, you can play casino games online, so we’re competing with the casinos.”
Gural pointed to changing customer behaviors following the COVID pandemic and the structural issues racing faces, which a friend summarized as, “Racing would be the equivalent of having a casino where the slot machines work for two minutes, and then you shut them down for 22 minutes.”
Gural believes the answer is a casino at the Meadowlands, which would require a referendum. A previous effort to expand casino gambling beyond the borders of Atlantic City in 2016 failed (Gural believes the non-specificity of the casino location doomed it from the start). With downstate New York casinos on the way, a North Jersey casino might be too little or too late.
Beyond the Headline: Big Numbers Require Context
Gural’s message — Don’t focus on the big numbers — is advice online gambling supporters should heed because the lack of nuance in the cannibalization debate allows opponents to poke holes in the big numbers the industry keeps holding up.
When it comes to online gambling, the industry wants everyone to focus on online gambling and total revenue and ignore (or rationalize) stagnant or declining land-based revenue.
Consider New Jersey’s year-end revenue totals: Online revenue is up 24%, and retail revenue is down 1%. Some will say this shows there isn’t cannibalization. Others will say there is, and (correctly in my opinion) that this is just the future of gambling.
As John Pappas recently said on STTP’s Talking Shop Podcast, “Like it or not, consumer behavior is changing, and that was accelerated via the pandemic. More opportunities and entertainment opportunities through digital channels are changing the way people behave. Our children are never going to do things that we did in person.”
STTP falls into the second camp. As I previously said, “My belief, which I’ve been stating for several years, is that there is a demand shift from brick-and-mortar to online, but it’s not a bad thing, and preventing it is not a viable long-term strategy.”
However, there are a couple of important caveats to consider when big numbers are thrown around:
Not enough people account for inflation (something STTP has been pointing out for some time) when they talk about land-based revenue.
Land-based and online revenue isn’t the same and should be treated differently regarding local economies and reinvestment.
As the Press of Atlantic City’s Wayne Parry often notes, Atlantic City casinos are not popping champagne despite setting a new revenue record with $5.7 billion in combined online and land-based revenue.
“So why aren’t the casinos happier,” Parry rhetorically asks before pointing out that the growth is on the online side of the ledger. “Those revenue streams must be shared with outside parties, including tech partners and sportsbooks, and are not solely for the casinos to keep,” therefore, “Casinos consider money won from in-person customers to be their core business.”
And round and round we go, until both sides start admitting it’s a lot more complicated than year-over-year revenue growth/decline.
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
Victor Rocha has something to say… a couple of things to say.
If I’m in the sweepstakes industry, I’m paying a lot of money to keep Victor Rocha’s next flight grounded because every time he attends a conference, his annoyance with sweepstakes is cranked up to 11.
Victor also wasn’t happy with the recent departure of Keith Whyte from the NCPG:
Stray Thoughts
My latest installment of the Ruddock Report is available at Casino Reports. This month I look at the current crop of candidates in 2025, and explain why the next two or three years suddenly look promising for several states.